BOSNIA - SILAJDZIC ASSUMES PRESIDENCY CHAIR; SHOWS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SARAJEVO 000455

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DEPT FOR EUR (DICARLO),EUR/SCE (HOH, SAINZ, FOOKS,
STINCHCOMB); DEFENSE FOR FATA, BEIN; NSC FOR BRAUN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/06/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV BK
SUBJECT: BOSNIA - SILAJDZIC ASSUMES PRESIDENCY CHAIR; SHOWS
NO SIGNS OF MODERATING APPROACH

REF: 07 SARAJEVO 863

Classified By: Ambassador Charles English. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Bosniak Member of the Presidency Haris
Silajdzic assumed the chairmanship of the institution on
March 6. Silajdzic's actions and comments in reent weeks
indicate that he plans to use his chairanship to promote his
divisive political agenda. His agenda, rooted in the past,
has contribute to the radicalization of Bosniak politics and
to growing tensions between Bosniaks and Serbs over the last
two years. In particular, we anticipate Silajdzic will
continue efforts to hold Serbia "accountable" for obligations
he believes stem from the February 2007 International Court
of Justice (ICJ) verdict that genocide took place in and
around Srebrenica in July 1995. Silajdzic may also revive
previous public calls for the abolition of Republika Srpska
(RS) as part of his push for constitutional reform.
Siljadzic's staff has told us privately that he will wait for
the dust to settle over Kosovo before making a big push on
constitutional reform. Siljadzic began his tenure by calling
on Montenegro to issue an apology for its participation in
the 1992-1995 Bosnian war and by criticizing Russia. Given
this start and Silajdzic's professed political aims and his
propensity for divisive rhetoric, Silajdzic chairmanship is
likely to provide ample fodder for RS PM Dodik to justify his
own anti-Dayton behavior, including calls for RS independence
if Bosniaks "do not recognize us." END SUMMARY

Silajdzic's Public Exposure Will Rise
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2. (SBU) On March 6, Bosniak Member of the Tri-Presidency
Haris Silajdzic assumed the chairmanship of the institution
from President Zeljko Komsic. President Silajdzic will hold
the rotating Presidency chairmanship for the next eight
months. The chairmanship does not allow Presidency members
any additional powers or authorities aside from the privilege
of speaking first at public and diplomatic gatherings and
chairing the intra-Presidency working group that sets the
institution's agenda. The chairmanship does provide the
Presidency member who occupies it with a higher public
profile, however, and frequent opportunities to use the
position as a "bully pulpit." President Komsic deliberately
sought to exploit his chairmanship to develop an image as the
politician most "close to ordinary people" and as a moderate
alternative to the country's more nationalist alternatives.
According to a recent International Republican Institute
poll, Komsic is now the most popular politician among
Federation voters. (Note: Komsic's support comes overwhelming
from Bosniaks, but his standing his improved, albeit from a
very low base, among Croats. End Note)

Reviving The ICJ Controversy
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3. (C) In the first month of his chairmanship, Silajdzic will
lead delegations to two important international gatherings:
the Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC) Summit in
Senegal March 13-14 and the NATO Bucharest Summit April 2-4.
Siljadzic has already sought to revive the February 2007 ICJ
verdict as a political weapon. In mid-February, he sought
Presidency approval for a letter to the United Nations
Secretary General requesting that the UN Security Council

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ensure Serbia complied with the verdict. (Note: The ICJ
judgment requires Serbia to cooperate with the International
Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia and hand over
individuals accused by ICTY of acts of genocide, notably
Ratko Mladic and Radovan Karadizc. End Note) Serbian member
of the Tri-Presidency Nebojsa Radmanovic invoked Vital
National Interest (VNI) to block the letter; the RS National
Assembly voted to uphold VNI on February 22.

Genocide, the RS, and Compromise
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4. (C) Though the ICJ verdict did not have any legal
implications for the RS, Siljadzic has sought to exploit it
in his ongoing campaign against the RS and to justify his
refusal to compromise with Bosnian Serbs on key reforms.
This strategy has yet to produce results for him, but we

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expect Silajdzic will continue nonetheless (Note: In March
2007, Silajdzic blocked an OHR proposal that would have
transferred control of the police from the entities to the
state because it would not have changed the name of the RS;
seven months later Siljadzic accepted the Mostar Agreement,
which leaves the RS police under its current name under RS
control. End Note) Siljadzic and his staff have indicated
that he plans to press for constitutional reform, and this
campaign may involve a revival of his public calls for the
abolishment of the RS. However, his staff have stressed to
us that Siljadzic wants "the dust to settle" on Kosovo before
any major push for constitutional change.

Reving Up The Rhetorical Engine
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5. (C) Before assuming the chairmanship, Silajdzic delivered
a lengthy and strident speech at the official Presidency
commemoration of Bosnian Independence Day held on February 29
in which he condemned alleged Bosnian Serb efforts to make
Bosnia a country of "unequal rights, segregation and
ghettos." Reviving an old theme, Silajdzic warned that U.S.
and European policies were contributing to the radicalization
of Bosnia's Muslim population, explaining that "ghettos in
BiH are dangerous with implications known to everybody."
Silajdzic also accused RS Prime Minister Dodik of trying to
"revitalize the project of Slobodan Milosevic." Silajdzic's
comments did receive some negative press coverage for their
tone and level of inappropriateness for the occasion -- a
distinction underscored by Komsic's thoughtful speech at the
commemoration in which he spoke of a Bosnia "large enough and
rich enough for all."

Foreign Policy As A Tool To Further A Domestic Agenda
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6. (C) Silajdzic has already demonstrated his willingness to
use the Presidency's authority to direct Bosnian foreign
policy for his own political ends. On March 6, the day he
assumed the chairmanship, the Bosnian press carried
Silajdzic's request that Montenegrin President Vujanovic
apologize on behalf of his country for "the irresponsible
position of Montenegrin powers in the past," stressing
Bosnian citizens "expected" Montenegro to apologize for its
actions during the war. Silajdzic has also criticized
Russia, which most Bosniaks perceive as encouraging and
protecting Dodik. Latching on to an incident in which the
Bosnian Embassy in Moscow received a threatening letter,
Silajdzic on March 4 publicly condemned the "the recent wider
campaign against Bosnia and Herzegovina, particularly the
Bosniaks, by certain diplomatic circles of the Russian
Federation, by the state media, as well as by academic
circles."

Comment
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7. (C) Within the Presidency itself, there already exists a
substantial level of animosity between the offices of three
Presidency members, due in large part to Silajdzic's partisan
and uncompromising approach to issues. For an institution
that relies on consensus-based decision-making, this is at
times crippling. Siljadzic's chairmanship is unlikely to
improve matters. Given his history, we expect Siljadzic will
exploit the opportunity provided by his new position to
further his anti-RS political agenda, which will only further
polarize Bosnian politics. It is important to note that
Silajdzic will hold the chairmanship through the October 2008
local elections. This will increase the temptation to use
the chairmanship to advance his party's electoral futures by
promoting a Bosniak nationalist agenda. In short, the
Siljadzic chairmanship is likely to provide plenty of
justifications for Dodik to claim Bosniaks refuse to
"recognize" the RS and build a case that the RS's only path
lies outside Bosnia.
ENGLISH