BOSNIA - RS AUTHORITIES WARN OF KOSOVO-RELATED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SARAJEVO 000288 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EUR(DICARLO),EUR/SCE(HOH/FOOKS); NSC FOR BRAUN; OSD FOR BIEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/11/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR BK SUBJECT: BOSNIA - RS AUTHORITIES WARN OF KOSOVO-RELATED UNREST REF: SARAJEVO 149 Classified By: DCM Judith B. Cefkin. Reasons 1.4 (b),(d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) In separate press conferences February 11, Milorad Dodik and RS law enforcement officials warned that reactions to Kosovo independence "would be certain" and would likely include some degree of unrest. RS authorities announced they are implementing an action plan to maintain public order. RS officials have been careful not to imply any support for civil unrest, but the coordinated messages suggest that Dodik is seeking to elevate the perception of the potential for disturbances. Several Serb NGOs, including the large umbrella organization SPONA, have stated that they will call for a secession referendum in the event of Kosovo independence declaration. We continue to believe that widespread disturbances in the RS are unlikely without Dodik's approval or encouragement. (Septel will report on post's EAC discussion of the security environment.) The degree to which unrest, or a viable RS independence movement, materializes depends on whether Dodik believes it is to his advantage to promote it for his own political goals. End Summary. RS MUP Prepares Kosovo-Related Security Measures -------------- --- ¶2. (U) At a joint press conference on February 11, Republika Srpska (RS) Interior Minister Stanislav Cadjo and RS Police Director Uros Pena stated that RS law enforcement authorities are making preparations for increased security in the event of unrest after a Kosovo independence declaration. Pena stated that the RS government believes that reactions to the declaration are "certain" and that all entity public security agencies are implementing an action plan to respond to any disturbances. RS police plan to begin a program of identifying potential demonstration leaders, implementing traffic restrictions and routine identification checks, Pena announced. Dodik: Unrest Expected -------------- ¶3. (U) At a press conference the same day, RS PM Milorad Dodik stated that it is clear that RS citizens are increasingly upset over the prospect of Kosovo independence and that he expects "eventual unrest" in the entity. Dodik added that RS citizens must remain calm and discuss the issue within existing institutions. He added that those who support Kosovo independence must be aware that it will create a completely new situation in the region and the world. Dodik repeated previous comments that the RS will not recognize an independent Kosovo. RS President Rajko Kusmanovic separately stated that he would not speculate on the possibility of civil unrest but added that Kosovo independence would have no legal basis. Kusmanovic also said that interference into the internal affairs of Serbia would constitute a violation of its territorial integrity. NGO Initiatives -------------- ¶4. (U) Also on February 11, the umbrella organization SPONA (Serbian Movement of Nongovernmental Organizations) announced it is planning to organize protests throughout the RS in the event of a Kosovo independence declaration and will call for an immediate referendum on the secession of the RS from Bosnia and Herzegovina. In a February 1 letter to foreign missions in Bosnia, nationalist NGO the Serb Peoples' Movement - The Choice is Ours, stated that it has launched an initiative to achieve the secession of the RS from the "imposed BiH." To this ed the organization asserted that it has gatheredfifty thousand signatures of RS citizens who supprt the initiative. Former RS President Dragan Cavc was quoted in the press as stating that Kosovoindependence would provoke an emotional reactionin the RS, radicalize the political atmosphere and lead Bosnia into a very dangerous situation. SARAJEVO 00000288 002 OF 002 ¶5. (U) Press reporting, particularly from RS-based outlets, has sought to fuel a sense of impending crisis. In recent weeks RS media has asserted that secret preparations are underway for an influx of Kosovo Serb refugees into the RS, including East Sarajevo. (Note: Similar reports circulated last year, but were quickly shot down by local officials and UNHCR. End Note) Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) The press conference by RS law enforcement authorities and Dodik,s public comments were clearly coordinated and designed to send several messages, though some are clearer than others. By raising the specter of public disorder in the RS after Kosovo independence, Dodik may have been trying to support Serbian President Tadic, a friend and ally, who recently warned of the regional consequences of Kosovo independence. Dodik may also have been trying to reassure the international community that he is not prepared to tolerate violence, a point he has stressed to us privately. Finally, Dodik was probably also trying to signal that Kosovo is, and will be, an emotional issue for Bosnian Serbs even if he maintains law and order in the RS. SPONA and other NGOs threatening referendum initiatives are mostly hard line SDS-affiliated opposition organizations, but there were credible reports that Dodik worked with SPONA during the 2007 crisis over the October 19 measures to generate public opposition to the HighRep and OHR. As we reported previously (reftel),Dodik,s public comments over the last year have often seemed to encourage RS citizens to make a link between the RS,s future status and Kosovo final status. We see no reason why this will not continue in the run up to and in the wake of Kosovo independence. This presents two dangers: 1) Dodik loses control of the forces he tacitly encourages, or 2) Dodik decides to actively exploit those forces to advance his own political goals, which increasingly appear to us to run counter to preserving and strengthening the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina. End Comment. ENGLISH