BOSNIA - AMBASSADOR VISITS SREBRENICA, PUSHES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SARAJEVO 001900 SIPDIS EUR/SCE FOR FOOKS, STINCHCOMB; NSC FOR HELGERSON, WILSON E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/25/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM BK SUBJECT: BOSNIA - AMBASSADOR VISITS SREBRENICA, PUSHES ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT REF: A. (A) SARAJEVO 1056 ¶B. (B) SARAJEVO 1614 ¶C. (C) SARAJEVO 1571 Classified By: Ambassador Charles English, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Ambassador English visited Srebrenica December 16 to inaugurate two USAID-funded projects and one new American-backed investment. He also met with newly-elected Mayor of Srebrenica Osman Suljic, who named his municipal team at the inaugural session of the Srebrenica assembly on November 22. Though Suljic's selection of two ethnic Serbs for leadership positions (including a rival SNSD mayoral candidate) makes good on his promises of inclusive administration, the selection of Camil Durakovic as Deputy Mayor suggests unhelpful influence of elements within the SDA party leadership (particularly state-level parliamentarian and President of the SDA Municipal Board Sadik Ahmetovic, who pitched hard for Durakovic to be the party's mayoral candidate) will likely continue to be a factor in local administration. The municipal council will be governed by a unique SNSD-SDA-SBiH coalition, with Radomir Pavlovic (SNSD) maintaining his position as Speaker. Should the municipal assembly find itself dealing with ethnically- or politically-sensitive issues, the coalition could find it difficult to function effectively, especially when influenced by the acrimonious relationship of party leaders (Dodik, Tihic, and Silajdzic). End Summary. First Session of the Municipal Assembly -------------- ¶2. (SBU) As a result of delays in the Central Election Commission's final confirmation of the October 5 municipal election results in Srebrenica, the Municipal Assembly's inaugural session finally took place on November 22. CEC tallies confirmed the 27-seat assembly is composed of: SDA (seven seats),SNSD (seven),SBiH (four),Alliance of Serb Parties (three),SDP-BiH (two),Snaga Bosne (two),DNS (one), and one national minority: a Montenegrin from the party SDU 2002, who took a seat in the assembly with only 16 votes. Prior to the municipal election, SDA, SBiH, and SNSD discussed forming a coalition government in Srebrenica, which was cemented at the November 22 session. The three parties together command 18 of the Municipal Assembly's 27 votes. As reported previously, Osman Suljic, the SDA candidate, won the vote for Mayor of Srebrenica. Assembly, Mayor's Administration Cross Ethnic Lines -------------- -------------- ¶3. (SBU) By statute, the Speaker of the Assembly and the Mayor of Srebrenica cannot be from the same ethnic group. With Suljic a Bosniak, installed as mayor, SNSD's Radomir Pavlovic (Serb) held onto his position as Speaker in the assembly. Zulfo Sahilovic (SBiH, Bosniak) was elected Deputy Speaker. And, as promised, Suljic nominated two Serbs to serve as assistant mayor (Note: there are five assistant mayors in Srebrenica. All five are chosen by the mayor, and head a department within the Municipal Administration. End Note). Most notably, Suljic appointed second-place finisher in the mayoral race Milos Vukosavljevic (SNSD) as head of the Economic Department (see reftel B, C). Though one local business contact voiced concern about Vukosavljevic's knowledge of economic matters, he was quick to affirm the wisdom of bringing the second-place candidate (and one from a different ethnic group) into the administration. Srebrenica Secessionist Named Deputy Mayor -------------- ¶4. (C) Suljic's team also includes Camil Durakovic, who will serve as Deputy Mayor. Durakovic, a divisive figure, was president of the "Initiative Committee for the Special Status of Srebrenica," a 2007 attempt to bring about the secession of Srebrenica from Republika Srpska. However, a few months later, when it became apparent that the movement had not gained political traction, it was abandoned. In early 2008, Ahmetovic proposed Durakovic as SDA's mayoral candidate for Srebrenica. Only our intervention with Tihic convinced SDA to alter its plans to field Durakovic as their candidate. Local Bratunac-based politician Refik Begic and others told us that Ahmetovic was likely the political force behind Durakovic's selection as Deputy mayor. SARAJEVO 00001900 002 OF 002 Suljic at the Helm: Saying the Right Things -------------- ¶5. (C) In meetings with us on his first week as mayor, Suljic recalled that the last time he had been in the mayor's office was when it was his as wartime "president" of Srebrenica. Suljic admitted that the choice of Durakovic was not his, but that he was now mayor and would be making the key decisions. Begic privately made a similar observation, suggesting Suljic would turn Durakovic into "a potted plant" within the administration. Begic was optimistic about Suljic's capabilities as a manager. Suljic further burnished his leadership credentials in a thoughtful December 12 interview, clarifying his commitment to Srebrenica as part of the RS, and announcing that all major religious holidays would be days off for all municipal employees in Srebrenica, regardless of ethnicity. ¶6. (C) Two USG-funded project openings, in which Suljic and Pavlovic participated along with the Ambassador, widely received positive media coverage and served as an ongoing demonstration of active USG support to Srebrenica. Meeting privately with the Ambassador, Suljic and Pavlovic re-affirmed their focus on economic development, inter-ethnic cooperation, and intention to coordinate with both Sarajevo and Banja Luka politicians. Both planned to travel to meet with RS and Federation Prime Ministers in the near future to discuss Srebrenica's development, taking along a group of local Serb and Bosniak political leaders. Not So Good on the Follow-Through -------------- ¶7. (C) Despite pre- and post-election proclamations of interest in attracting more investment to Srebrenica and focusing on job creation, Suljic's first few months leave room for concern. According to sources in the economic unit of the Mayor's office, Suljic rarely meets with them, cannot articulate his plans for economic development and often appears too overwhelmed to deal with details or specifics. Despite Begic's prediction that Durakovic would become a potted plant, he has been the one, vice Suljic, to participate in economic development planning activities, thus far. Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) Though Suljic has been careful to say the right things publicly, and to us, he has yet to establish a track record of accomplishment. To date, his avoidance of nationalist rhetoric has been positive, though. Suljic will be a key player in closing the chapter on a Bosniak-majority polity, though, and thus his approach to Serbs will be especially important when, as his term ends, Bosniaks from outside the municipality are no longer eligible to vote in Srebrenica. The importance of cooperative, constructive local politics should not, therefore, be undervalued. Time will tell if Suljic's promises made become promises kept. ENGLISH