BOSNIA - DODIK, TIHIC, COVIC WORK TO KEEP PRUD

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 SARAJEVO 001899 SIPDIS EUR/SCE (HYLAND, FOOKS),NSC FOR HELGERSON E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/23/2018 TAGS: EUR SCE HYLAND FOOKS NSC FOR HELGERSON SUBJECT: BOSNIA - DODIK, TIHIC, COVIC WORK TO KEEP PRUD ALIVE; DODIK WILLING TO TALK ABOUT BRCKO AMENDMENTS REF: A. A. SARAJEVO 1869 ¶B. B. SARAJEVO 1655 ¶C. C. SARAJEVO 1862 Classified By: Ambassador Charles English. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: In an effort to sustain momentum on the November 8 Prud Agreement (ref A),the three signatories to the agreement -- Party of Democratic Action (SDA) chairman Sulejman Tihic, Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ-BiH) chairman Dragan Covic, and Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) chairman Milorad Dodik -- met on December 22 to devise a strategy for implementing elements of Prud. The three men signed three documents -- addressing the 2009 budget, the census and return of refugees and displaced persons, and constitutional reform -- and drafted an annex dealing with state property. The state property annex, by calling for the establishment of an Agency for State Property and establishing a deadline for adopting the Law on State Property, portends some concrete progress in this area. However, the State Property Commission in its December 22 meeting came no closer to an agreement, largely because of contention over the details of the property registration process. ¶2. (C) SUMMARY CONTINUED: On Brcko, Dodik stressed to Ambassador at a December 22 meeting that international engagement had led him to reassess his position and that he would consider constitutional amendments. Dodik, Tihic, and Covic at their meeting also discussed the possible reshuffling of the state government, which Tihic and Covic subsequently raised with Social Democratic Party (SDP) leader Zlatko Lagumdzija, whom Tihic and Covic are courting to join the state and Federation governments -- or support a minority coalition -- if the current coalitions fall. Lagumdzija and SDP plan to deliberate on this proposal and reply to their interlocutors within two days. We continue to applaud efforts by the Prud signatories to make progress on the agreement in order to assure the public and each other of their commitment to its implementation. Yet given intra-party rifts and inter-party battles over details, we are a long way from realizing the promises of Prud. We are also not ready to bank Dodik's promise that he would support constitutional amendments on Brcko, given his history of walking back on private commitments to us. END SUMMARY Tihic, Covic, Dodik Meet to Reinvigorate Prud -------------- ¶3. (SBU) On December 22, Tihic, Covic, and Dodik met in Sarajevo to discuss the implementation of the Prud Agreement (ref A). Speculation that Prud might collapse has grown in recent weeks after: 1) the State Property Commission failed to reach agreement on draft legislation consistent with Prud; 2) the Bosniak and Croat members of the Tri-Presidency -- Haris Silajdzic and Zeljko Komsic, respectively -- endorsed a state budget inconsistent with Prud, over the objections of Serb Tri-Presidency member Nebojsa Radmanovic; and 3) parliamentary debate over census legislation became entangled in a Bosniak-Serb dispute over plans by the Republika Srpska (RS) to remove the adjective "Bosanski" from several towns in the RS. At the same time, Prud opponent Haris Silajdzic has been diligently seeking to discredit the agreement and drive a wedge between Tihic and the more conservative wing of the SDA by claming that Tihic's compromises with Dodik (and Covic) pose a fundamental threat to Bosniak interests. ¶4. (SBU) Tihic, Covic, and Dodik at their December 22 meeting signed three documents and drafted an annex, which were designed to clarify elements of the Prud Agreement and sustain the positive political momentum many observers believed the initial agreement created. The three signed documents deal with the 2009 budget, the census and return of refugees and displaced persons, and constitutional reform. -- On the budget, the three men re-endorsed the 2009 budget framework as agreed by the National Fiscal Council, but concluded that the allocation of funds within the budget was a matter for the state parliament (and, in the case of the entity budgets, the entity parliaments). -- On the census/returns, the three men proposed that the Council of Ministers create an inter-agency working group charged with drafting a law on the census, devising a program SARAJEVO 00001899 002 OF 004 of measures to assist sustainable returns for the period 2009-2014, and exploring the possibility of securing favorable international loans or issuing bonds to finance the program of measures. -- On constitutional reform, the three men called on their party caucuses in the state parliament to draft legislation creating a special parliamentary commission that would prepare amendments to the Constitution consistent with the principles outlined in Prud. The commission would take decisions by consensus. State Property Annex Portends Progress, but Stalls -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) The fourth document, the annex, deals with state property, paving the way for incremental progress on this element of Prud but languishing amid contentious discussions within the State Property Commission on details. The annex indicates which property would be subject to the Law on State Property, calls for an inventory of all such property, and conveys the necessity of a subsequent agreement between executive bodies at all levels of government. That agreement, per the annex, would first establish which property would be required for the state government to exercise its competencies, then enumerate the necessities for the lower levels. Similarly, the annex proposes that all property should first be registered as state-level property and subsequently be registered at the lower levels. (Note: Dodik told Ambassador on December 22 that he did not concede this point. End Note) Finally, the annex states the need to establish an Agency for State Property and gives a deadline of January 31 for adopting the Law on State Property. ¶6. (C) Tihic, Covic, and Dodik sent this annex to the State Property Commission for its December 22 meeting, but although the Commission debated it, the discussion yielded no progress toward an agreement. The group reached a stalemate on a number of questions, such as the order in which the Law, inventory, agreement, and registration should proceed. The Commission also did not review any of the draft laws submitted by the RS or Bosniak representatives or the Commission chair, ultimately agreeing to task state-level Public Attorney Dragica Miletic to devise a consolidated draft Law from the three drafts submitted to the Commission, taking into account the annex to Prud. The Commission plans to deliberate on this draft at its next session, scheduled for December 30 in Banja Luka. Brcko: Potentially Constructive Step By Dodik -------------- ¶7. (C) At a December 22 luncheon with Dodik, Ambassador welcomed the constructive dialogue that had produced Prud and underscored the importance of maintaining momentum on the agreement, particularly given efforts by some political leaders to derail it. Ambassador stressed that the U.S. had welcomed Prud after it was announced, adding that meaningful compromises on reforms were necessary for Bosnia's integration into Euro-Atlantic institutions and meeting the PIC's 5-plus-2 agenda. (Note: Dodik has claimed publicly that "certain foreign embassies" are working against Prud. End Note) However, Ambassador reiterated that from a legal perspective, the element pertaining to Brcko would not work. (Note: We have been privately stressing this point with RS leaders, senior members of Dodik's party, and key Dodik aides since the November PIC. End Note) Ambassador urged Dodik to reconsider his opposition to constitutional amendments on Brcko and to return to the type of constructive dialogue on Brcko that had characterized their exchanges in the first half of 2008. ¶8. (C) Dodik confirmed that HighRep Miroslav Lajcak had raised Brcko with him during a December 15 meeting in Banja Luka, adding that this exchange -- coupled with his discussions with U.S. officials on the margins of the PIC -- had persuaded him to take another look at the issue. Dodik underscored that if ensuring Brcko's access to the Constitutional Court was the only issue, then he was ready to work with the Supervisor, OHR, and the U.S. to find acceptable language for a constitutional amendment. Dodik expressed concern about the first proposed amendment, which he claimed "went beyond the Final Award." (Note: The first of the two proposed amendments defines Brcko as an SARAJEVO 00001899 003 OF 004 institution of Bosnia, using language drawn directly from the Final Award. End Note) Dodik also proposed specific changes to the second amendment, which deals with the Constitutional Court issue. Ambassador welcomed Dodik's new approach and urged him to present his specific proposals to OHR lawyers, who would be best positioned to assess them. Shuffling the State and Federation Governments -------------- - ¶9. (C) After their meeting with Dodik, Tihic and Covic met with Social Democratic Party (SDP) President Zlatko Lagumdzija on December 22 to discuss their efforts to implement Prud and their plans for shuffling the state and Federation governments. Covic told us after the meeting that he believes Lagumdzija is favorably disposed to joining the Federation and state governments -- although he acknowledged that Lagumdzija was often unpredictable -- but only under the condition that SBiH and HDZ-1990 are not part of the coalition. He also was sanguine about the prospect of Dodik accepting Lagumdzija in the state government, which in the past he has publicly refused to do. Lagumdzija told the press after his discussion with Tihic and Covic that he had scheduled an SDP meeting for December 23 to decide whether to consider participating in a coalition government or supporting a minority government, and that his party would have an answer within two days. Covic noted, though, that Tihic is balking at reshuffling the government in the near future, citing the need to pass budget bills at the state and entity level first. Covic assessed that Tihic's push for passing these bills is a smokescreen for ensuring support from the rest of SDA for the government reshuffle. Comment -------------- ¶10. (C) Although the three signatories to Prud continue to profess to support the agreement, we are scarcely closer to implementation of any element of Prud than we were at its signing. Numerous obstacles stand in the way of immediate, tangible progress. Tihic still faces opposition from restive elements of his party, particularly from SDA VP Bakir Izetbegovic and his allies, which could hamper Tihic's efforts to negotiate. Tihic admitted to us that he is factoring this potential opposition into his careful steps on Prud. Tihic needs to balance these risks with the immense political capital he would gain from the successful implementation of the Prud Agreement. The fall of the state and Federation governments (government restructuring was part of Prud) -- which strikes us as a serious possibility given the negotiations underway with SDP -- could solidify Tihic's leadership within the party, but a failed attempt at bringing down the governments could politically finish him. ¶11. (C) Dodik, although notionally striking a more conciliatory position on Brcko, has not yet convinced us that he fully backs constitutional amendments or is willing to make the tough compromises, such as those required on state property, to ensure Prud's implementation. Izetbegovic has told us that he does not believe Dodik is serious at all about Prud. Even Covic has stressed to us the need to test Dodik's sincerity. Dodik has a habit of walking back from private promises to us and to others. Bearing this in mind, we will continue to keep the pressure on him to do the right thing, particularly on Brcko, even as we applaud all of the Prud signatories for the steps they take toward implementing the agreement. We will encourage them to bring the issues that are closest to completion, such as immoveable defense property, to closure as soon as possible so as to ensure continued momentum on the agreement, and to take advantage of Dodik's willingness, even if fleeting, to cooperate. Addendum: Ambassador Cautions Dodik on Rhetoric -------------- -- ¶12. (C) At the conclusion of their lunch, Ambassador pulled Dodik aside for a one-on-one exchange about Dodik's recent rhetoric, specifically his repeated public attacks on PDHR Gregorian (ref B). Ambassador warned Dodik that his months-long campaign to vilify the PDHR had created an environment that had the potential to transform threats, however empty in themselves, into dangerous actions. Ambassador made clear that the U.S. expects Dodik and his SARAJEVO 00001899 004 OF 004 allies to cease and desist, stressing that the U.S. would hold Dodik responsible if the RS media drumbeat against the PDHR compromises Gregorian's security in any way. Dodik responded that this expectation was "unfair," that the RS feels that the PDHR has attacked them, and that he feels obligated to respond. While rejecting possible responsibility for breaching the PDHR's security, and without agreeing to any course of action, Dodik nevertheless said that he "understands" the U.S. position. Ambassador also rebuked Dodik for accusing the U.S. of "misusing" Dodik's comments about "Muslim" judges (ref C),stressing that Dodik's comments were crystal clear and not subject to benign interpretation. If Dodik wished to avoid criticism for such clearly objectionable rhetoric, he ought to stop making such statements, Ambassador concluded. ENGLISH