SCENESETTER FOR DEPUTY ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SARAJEVO 001863

SIPDIS

FOR DEPUTY SECRETARY OF DEFENSE ROGER ZAKHEIM

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/15/2018
TAGS: MARR PREL BK
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR DEPUTY ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF
DEFENSE ROGER ZAKHEIM

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Classified By: Amb. Charles English for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Your visit comes days after the last of
Bosnia's deployments to Iraq have returned. Although
Bosnia's Tri-presidency will ultimately make any decision
about a new deployment to ISAF/OEF, Bosnia's defense
institutions are keen to contribute however they can, and the
broad political will exists across party lines to participate
in overseas peacekeeping missions. Along with EU membership,
NATO accession is one of the two uniting goals of a divided
Bosnia. Despite a deteriorating political situation, all
major leaders are eager to demonstrate Bosnia's commitment to
collective security as well as develop the armed forces by
participating in overseas missions. Bosnian officials want
to be asked to contribute to ISAF, as the Ministry of Defense
will feel it is outside its mandate to propose a deployment
to the Presidency of its own initiative. Your arrival comes
on the eve of a visit by the National Guard Bureau including
GEN McKinley, Chief NGB, and BG Adkins, The Adjutant General
of Maryland -- Bosnia and Herzegovina,s State Partner. END
SUMMARY.

YOUR MEETINGS
--------------


2. (C/NF) During your visit, Bosnia's armed forces will host
a return ceremony for the last EOD rotation and 49 infantry
soldiers who served in Iraq, to which they will invite
Chairman (and Bosnian-Serb member) of the Presidency Nebojsa
Radmanovic. You will have a separate meeting with Chief of
Defense General Milojcic, and Minister of Defense Selmo
Cikotic at the site of the ceremony. You will also meet
leadership of Parliament's Defense and Security Committee,
who will have to approve any deployment abroad. We expect
all to be broadly supportive of making a contribution to
ISAF/OEF. With all your interlocutors, we suggest the
following points:

-- Thanks. Bosnia's contribution of one infantry and eight
EOD rotations in Iraq was significant and successful. It
showed Bosnia's commitment to collective security and ability
to operate a professional and unified armed forces.

-- The new SOFA with Iraq has led to an unanticipated
availability of forces that Bosnia can contribute to
international peacekeeping missions. This gives Bosnia the
opportunity to contribute to an ongoing NATO mission at a
critical juncture in Bosnia's NATO process.

-- We are in a position to help Bosnia fulfill its mission to
ISAF/OEF, by rolling over Coalition Support Funds towards an
ISAF/OEF mission, joint training and deployment through the
State Partnership Program with the Maryland National Guard,
and ongoing Mil-Mil assistance through our FMF and IMET
programs.

ISAF/OEF CONTRIBUTION: POSSIBLE AND DESIRABLE
-------------- -


3. (C) We believe that a Bosnian contribution to ISAF/OEF is
politically feasible and desirable. We have already discussed
the possibility in general terms with Bosnia's leaders, and
we do not foresee any strong objections. Defense
institutions will be especially supportive as overseas
deployment put Bosnia's defense reform goals in focus.
Bosnia's nine deployments to Iraq have served as a positive
model for the future of their armed forces -- a small, NATO
inter-operable and completely ethnically integrated force
focused on providing support for international missions.
It's also a back-door means of integrating Bosnia's military,
as we have successfully pressed the Bosnians to ensure that
all overseas deployments be multi-ethnic. (Although defense
reform integrated the Armed Forces command structure, the
infantry remains ethnically segregated at the battalion
level.) The foreign deployment of a company would effectively
create an integrated battalion in the BiH Armed Forces,
because of the need to train a reserve and a follow-up
company.

OPTIONS
--------------


4. (C/NF) Bosnia's current institutional capacity for working
with NATO is weak. Bosnia has not adequately staffed its
mission to NATO/SHAPE, although the positions will be filled
in early 2009. The Ministry of Defense will likely look to us

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for instructions throughout the deployment process. Bosnia's
defense leaders are eager for a "request" that they
contribute to ISAF, and they will likely want to be told what
to contribute. While we stress that it is ultimately up to
the Government of BiH, we have spoken to them generally about
the following possibilities:

--EOD unit. Bosnia has deployed eight EOD unit rotations to
Iraq, and they are largely trained and equipped and could
probably deploy most quickly of any of the other options.
The EOD unit is part of the de-mining battalion, and sending
company size deployment would requie training and equipping
the entire battalion.
--Infantry Company for fixed site security. Bosna's first
rotation of a platoon plus (49 personnl) of infantry for
fixed site security has just returned from Iraq. Even though
there will be no ore Iraq rotations, the Armed Forces has
continued its training rotation of 78 infantry men for
peacekeeping operations in anticipation of future
contributions.

--Military Police deployment along with Maryland National
Guard (Bosnia's partner in the State Partnership Program) as
an operational mentor and liaison team (OMLT). OMLTs coach,
teach, and mentor Afghan National Army (ANA) units. They
also assist in planning and execution of operations,
facilitate ANA cooperation with ISAF partners, and coordinate
and integrate ISAF enablers.

BACKGROUND ON POLITICAL SITUATION
--------------


5. (C/NF) Despite Bosnia's having achieved formal progress in
its path toward candidacy for the EU and NATO, the political
situation in Bosnia continues to be problematic. Political
leaders continue to engage in destabilizing dialogue among
themselves and often focus their time and energy on the
issues that divide the country rather than on those that
could bring it together. Around the time of October's
municipal elections, Serbs were speculating about the
"peaceful separation" of Republika Srpska (RS),the Croats
were openly calling for creation of a third entity, and
Bosniak leaders were advocating constitutional reforms that
would abolish the RS. There has been a recent (fragile)
compromise between three major parties on some of Bosnia's
key outstanding issues, but it is hard to judge its value
until the parties make concrete progress. Defense reforms of
two years ago are still a bright spot, but much of the
progress we achieved there has required robust U.S. and NATO
engagement and nevertheless remains fragile. Not
surprisingly, in this environment there has been little scope
for politicians to reach meaningful agreements that would
advance Bosnia's Euro-Atlantic aspirations. As a
consequence, the reform process, including the next steps in
defense reform, has stalled.

Defense Reform: Fragile Progress, More to Do
--------------


6. (C) Defense reform remains one of the biggest success
stories in Bosnia since Dayton. Since abolishing the two
entity-level militaries and ministries of defense and
creating a single state institution in their place in 2005,
Bosnia has taken the first steps to create a unified,
effective military. The government has developed a clear and
direct ethnically integrated command and control structure,
and with active U.S. support and engagement, a legally
consistent and transparent way to manage the transition of
the Joint Chief of Staff. The new state-level institutions
met the conditions for PfP membership in 2006 and for an
Intensified Dialogue in April 2008. Nonetheless, there
remains much work to be done, and many reforms will require
engagement of state institutions other than the Ministry of
Defense, a point lost on much of the Bosnian government.

NATO Aspirations: Substance Matters
--------------


7. (C) Since being invited to join PfP in 2006 (and
reinforced by the invitation to join Intensified Dialogue at
Bucharest),NATO membership has been, along with EU
membership, one of the two uniting goals of a divided
country. Most Bosnians believe NATO membership is absolutely
necessary for their country's long-term peace and prosperity,
and many believe it within reach. The government's stated

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objective is a Membership Action Plan (MAP) by NATO's next
summit, and some are hoping for an invitation to join by that
time. This overly optimistic prognosis is indicative of a
broad lack of understanding of the implications and
requirements of NATO membership. As a result, we are
confronted with the delicate task of keeping the Bosnians
motivated, while simultaneously injecting a dose of realism
into the discussions. There has been little public
discussion about what the path forward entails, particularly
the necessity of reform across the board, including in
civilian institutions. We take every opportunity to
underscore to our interlocutors that NATO membership is
earned, and that this requires a sustained commitment to
reforms across the board.
ENGLISH