BOSNIA - MAYORALTY BATTLES MAY THREATEN TENUOUS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SARAJEVO 001811 SIPDIS EUR/SCE (HYLAND, FOOKS),NSC FOR HELGERSON E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/05/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR PHUM KDEM BK SUBJECT: BOSNIA - MAYORALTY BATTLES MAY THREATEN TENUOUS COOPERATION BETWEEN PARTIES REF: A. A. SARAJEVO 1655 ¶B. B. SARAJEVO 1728 Classified By: Michael J. Murphy. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Following the October 5 municipal elections, parties are measuring their strength not only in terms of the number of mayoralties and city council positions they hold, but in the concentration of power in the areas of importance to each ethnic group. As such, the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ)-BiH is desperate to hold onto the "Croat capital" of Mostar, the leading Bosniak parties are battling to govern Sarajevo, and the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) is dueling with the Social Democratic Party (SDP) to spearhead the first post-Supervisory government in Brcko District. Our interest in the races in Mostar and Sarajevo -- where SDA captured the majority of votes -- lies in the implications for the budding cooperation between the Party of Democratic Action (SDA) and HDZ-BiH on key reforms. If SDA wins the mayoralty in both cities, HDZ-BiH will be under extreme pressure from the Croat populace and nationalist Croat rivals to eschew compromise with SDA in the name of protecting Croat interests. Meanwhile, in Brcko -- which is almost entirely a USG project -- we want to ensure that a stable government is in place that supports USG priorities in Brcko, particularly respect and support for the Final Award, which has been critical to ensuring that Brcko does not again become a flashpoint for ethnic tensions or conflict in Bosnia. END SUMMARY. Flashpoints Unfold: Mostar, Sarajevo, Brcko -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The results of the October 5 municipal elections dictated the ruling coalitions and mayors in all municipalities except Mostar, Sarajevo, and Brcko. The candidate who garnered the most votes won the mayoralty, and the parties who captured 15 percent or more of the vote will form the municipal government. Mostar and Brcko, however, do not directly elect their mayors; the governing coalitions appoint the mayors. The City of Sarajevo's four municipalities elect their mayors directly, but the mayor of the City is selected through negotiation of the ruling parties in the Sarajevo City Council, whose councilors are elected by the four municipal councils. Parties have been enmeshed in negotiations in all three cities since the Central Election Commission certified the results of the elections on November 5. Bosniaks Vie to Oust Incumbent Croats in Mostar -------------- -- ¶3. (C) The battle for Mostar, the "Croat capital" and traditionally a Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ)-BiH stronghold, now pits HDZ-BiH against the Party of Democratic Action (SDA) and the National Party of Work for Progress (NSRzB),the latter two of which garnered surprisingly strong election results. SDA captured the largest number of votes, with NSRzB taking second place and HDZ-BiH taking third. All three parties, which publicly and privately state that they are seeking the mayoralty, are courting the Social Democratic Party (SDP),HDZ-1990, the Croatian Party of Rights (HSP)-BiH, and the Party for BiH (SBiH) as coalition partners. SDA VP Bakir Izetbegovic told us privately that it would be better for the country to have a Croat as mayor of Mostar. Nonetheless, if SDA and Bosniaks were to cede the city to HDZ-BiH after a majority of the populace voted for SDA, it would cause significant rifts between the Mostar branch of SDA and the party's Sarajevo-based leadership, according to Izetbegovic. Indeed, SDA's mayoral candidate in Mostar, Suad Hasandedic, told us that SDA will not support an HDZ-BiH mayor under any circumstances. He added that SDA in Mostar is still bitter because it lost control of East Mostar under the 2004 Mostar Statute, and that the mayoralty would help compensate for the loss. (Note: Former HighRep Paddy Ashdown in January 2004 imposed the statute, which consolidated Mostar's municipal governments -- half of which SDA controlled, and half of which HDZ-BiH controlled -- into a single city administration with entrenched power-sharing mechanisms. End Note.) Croats Struggle for the "Croat Capital" -------------- ¶4. (C) The stakes are high in Mostar for HDZ-BiH, which is hoping to use the municipal election results to eliminate its floundering rival HDZ-1990 as a significant force in Croat politics. HDZ-BiH's efforts would suffer a significant setback if there were a public perception among Croats that the party lost the "Croat capital." Incumbent mayor Ljubo Beslic (HDZ-BiH) told us that his party is vigorously courting other parties -- as well as individual city councilors, particularly Croats from NSRzB -- to support his reappointment. Beslic stressed to us that HDZ-BiH is under immense pressure from the Croat populace and the Catholic Church, which Beslic said is disappointed with erstwhile Church beneficiary HDZ-1990 and is now standing behind HDZ-BiH. Our contacts in Mostar told us that HDZ-BiH chairman Dragan Covic struck a deal with Mijo Brajkovic, CEO of the influential Mostar company Aluminij. According to the deal, Covic would assist in the privatization of Aluminij if Brajkovic convinced Aluminij Executive Manager Jure Musa (HDZ-1990) to support Beslic and to persuade two other HDZ-1990 councilors to do the same. Musa and one other HDZ-1990 councilor have since voted for the HDZ-BiH candidate for president of the Mostar Croat caucus, suggesting that HDZ-BiH is making progress in its efforts to work behind the scenes to secure the support of individual councilors from other parties. Sarajevo: Battle of the Bosniaks -------------- ¶5. (C) SDA is also embroiled in the battle for mayor of Sarajevo, with SDP as the main opponent. SDA and SDP each secured a majority in two of Sarajevo's four municipalities. SDA proposed as its mayoral candidate a Croat priest not affiliated with SDA, which Izetbegovic told us was an attempt to pacify HDZ-BiH into allowing SDA the mayoralty in Mostar. SDA's proposed candidate did not accept the position, and SDA has not yet identified an alternative. (Note: The Catholic Church openly opposed the candidate's selection, one reason that the candidate -- who is widely admired within Sarajevo circles as a tolerant, pro-Bosnian figure -- withdrew from consideration. End Note.) SDP on November 19 declared party VP Alija Behmen as its candidate after several other SDP insiders turned down the position, but some SDP insiders question his leadership capabilities and are critical of the party's decision. Sarajevo, traditionally an SDP stronghold, is important to party leader Zlatko Lagumdzija because control of its mayoralty would be another sign of the party's rising political fortunes since its disappointing performance in the 2006 general elections. But Izetbegovic has stressed to us that Lagumdzija will not be able to count on SDA's acquiescence, due to longstanding distrust between the parties, and that SDA will continue the fight for Sarajevo for as long as it takes. Brcko: All Major Parties Likely to Play a Role -------------- - ¶6. (C) Parties at the national level are far less absorbed in the mayor race in Brcko than in Mostar and Sarajevo, partly because Brcko's mayor -- per the District statute -- has far fewer powers than the mayors in Mostar and Sarajevo. The ruling coalition, once formed, will nominate the mayor, Assembly Speaker, and Deputy Speakers. PDHR Raffi Gregorian told us that SNSD and SDP are each trying to form a coalition, but neither can gather the requisite majority. (Note: By statute, a coalition in Brcko capable of nominating the mayor will require a simple majority of 31 mandates and the inclusion of at least two mandates from each ethnic group. End Note.) SDA has emerged as the kingmaker, as both SNSD and SDP are willing to work with SDA. SDA -- at Gregorian's urging -- will host coalition talks with SNSD, SDP, HDZ-BiH, the Croatian Peasants' Party (HSS) coalition, and the small Serb parties. Gregorian expects that SNSD, which holds the largest number of mandates within the prospective coalition, would nominate the mayor. The Bosniaks, then, would choose the Speaker, and the Croats would choose the Deputy Speaker. The other major parties in the prospective coalition have told Gregorian that they are comfortable with SNSD's choice for mayor, despite the party's unconstructive approach to addressing the PIC's Brcko objective as part of its OHR closure strategy. (Note: Some SNSD officials recently even suggested to us that they believe Brcko has outlived its usefulness. End Note.) Gregorian told us that he will urge the new Brcko government to pass a resolution pledging to support the Final Award and constitutional amendments that codify Brcko's status and ensure Brcko has access to the Constitutional Court (see Ref A for more details on the debate on constitutional amendments for Brcko). Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) The mayoral races in Sarajevo and Mostar are important to us because the outcome of the political battles for control of these cities, particularly between SDA and HDZ-BiH for Mostar, could have implications for inter-party cooperation at the national level. If HDZ-BiH loses the Mostar mayoralty to SDA, the Croat populace -- with HDZ-1990's encouragement -- will undoubtedly claim that the Bosniaks are squeezing Croats out of leadership positions within even "Croat areas" of the Federation. This sentiment would bode ill for the tenuous but budding cooperation between SDA and HDZ-BiH at the national level. This cooperation is essential to ensure progress on the Odzak Agreement (Ref B),encourage government reforms within the Federation, and stymie RS PM Milorad Dodik's attempts to pit the Bosniaks and Croats against each other to advance his nationalist agenda. Our conversations with SDA officials suggest to us that the SDA leadership is aware of the stakes of these mayoral races. SDA, though, is attempting to balance the need to maintain positive relations with HDZ-BiH with competing demands from some within SDA to claim Mostar as "rightfully theirs" after capturing the majority vote there. HDZ-BiH has shown that it is willing to strike under-the-table deals with individual councilors in order to keep Mostar (without engaging in a public, frontal assault on SDA),a strategy that has worked for the party in the past. ¶8. (C) Forming a stable government in Brcko is important to us because this government will be the first to lead the District after American Supervision ends. Bosniak leaders periodically convey concerns that Brcko, given its history, could again emerge as a flashpoint, especially without an American Supervisor present. PDHR Gregorian is confident that the checks and balances mandated in the Brcko statute lay the foundation for a stable coalition and ethnic balance, even if an SNSD mayor chooses to pursue a destructive agenda. We will keep a careful eye on Brcko as the coalition negotiations progress, encouraging party leaders to place suitable personnel in positions of power and subsequently to ensure that they perform their duties in a manner that ensures the District's stability in the post-Supervisory period. In general, Brcko's local leadership has been inclined to place Brcko's needs ahead of party politics. With this in mind, we will also encourage the new Brcko government to engage their party leaders to take the steps necessary to ensure that Supervision ends in a manner that protects Brcko's long-term interests and is consistent with the Brcko objective laid out by the PIC as part of its 5-plus-2 strategy for OHR's closure. ENGLISH