BOSNIA: U.S.-EU TABLE TRANSCO PROPOSAL; UNEVEN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SARAJEVO 001623 NOFORN SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/SCE HYLAND, FOOKS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/16/2023 TAGS: ECON EINV ENRG PINR PREL BK SUBJECT: BOSNIA: U.S.-EU TABLE TRANSCO PROPOSAL; UNEVEN RESPONSE FROM PRIME MINISTERS REF: SARAJEVO 1459 Classified By: Ambassador Charles English for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The Ambassador met with Federation PM Brankovic on October 14 and Republika Srpska (RS) PM Dodik on October 16 to discuss a joint U.S.-EU proposal to resolve problems with state managed electricity transmission company, Electroprijenos (TRANSCO),which had prompted RS government threats to unilaterally withdraw from it and establish its own electricity transmission company. The U.S.-EU proposal is designed to preserve the current company structure, an EU-required reform, while at the same time addressing legitimate RS concerns about its operations. The proposal includes four elements: 1) suspension of the current General Director; 2) conduct a management audit, the outcome of which would provide the basis for management reform negotiations; 3) resolution of pending management decisions that are not contingent on the outcome of the audit; and 4) hiring of an international facilitator to ensure operational benchmarks are hit and lead the reform negotiations. Brankovic told the Ambassador that he was &open8 to the U.S.-EU proposal. Dodik did not rule it out, but continued to insist on a restructuring of TRANSCO along entity lines (i.e., a de facto dismantling of TRANSCO). In a separate October 16 meeting with the Ambassador, RS Energy Minister Puhalac took a much tougher line than Dodik about TRANSCO,s future. Our first meetings with the two PMs suggest that the U.S.-EU proposal could provide a way forward, but TRANSCO will continue to demand international attention. Along with the EU, we plan to proceed with preparations for the management audit and the hiring of an international facilitator, and at the same time, we will provide both PMs with detailed explanation of the proposal in writing and seek their firm, written commitment to it. END SUMMARY U.S.-EU Proposal to Resolve TRANSCO Problems -------------- ¶2. (SBU) RS PM Dodik has repeatedly voiced his displeasure with the operations of the state managed electricity transmission company, Electroprijenos (TRANSCO),but has not made a good faith effort to resolve these problems. (Note: The RS and Federation PMs are the two general shareholders of TRANSCO. End Note) Instead, Dodik used the Federation,s failure to respond to RS proposals to restructure TRANSCO, proposals that if implemented would have amounted to a de facto break-up of the company, to justify an attempt to withdraw from TRANSCO and create a separate, RS-level company (reftel). Outside experts agree that TRANSCO has management problems, but many result from the failure of the company,s Serb General Director Mijatovic to perform his duties. Ethnic tensions between RS and Federation management officials have also exacerbated the company,s internal problems. With the aim of maintaining TRANSCO as a state-level institution )- TRANSCO,s creation was a Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) requirement )- and addressing legitimate RS concerns about its management problems, the U.S. and EU developed a proposal, which the Ambassador presented in separate meetings to the Federation and RS PMs and RS Energy Minister. Four Key Points -------------- ¶3. (C) The main points of U.S.-EU proposal to improve TRANSCO operations are as follows (Note: OHR also participated in the preparation of the proposal and its experts will continue to support its implementation, but for political reasons the U.S.-EU role is being emphasized. End Note): --Initiate Independent Management Audit: The EC has agreed to finance an independent management audit of TRANSCO. We expect the whole audit process to take as long as six months, but will impress upon the PMs their obligations to accept the findings of the audit once it is complete. --Benchmarks for Success: Because the audit will take considerable time, technical experts from the US and the EC have agreed to establish a list of the currently-blocked management decisions (on issues such as investment, personnel and maintenance) that need to be decided on and resolved by the management team as soon as possible before the finalization of the audit. --Suspension of the General Director (GD): As is the norm in corporate America, the head of a company often steps aside SARAJEVO 00001623 002 OF 003 during the management audit process. An interim GD can be appointed or a technical expert from the international community could be brought in. --International Facilitator: The IC also strongly recommends introducing an international facilitator to negotiate between the Federation and RS management officers. Because the management consistently votes according to ethnic considerations, a facilitator can work with both sides to promote decisions that will benefit the company from a technical and financial standpoint. BRANKOVIC OPEN TO PROPOSAL; SUPPORTS SUSPENSION OF GENERAL DIRECTOR -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) The Ambassador met with Federation Prime Minister Brankovic on Tuesday, October 14 to discuss the joint U.S.-EU proposal. Brankovic said that he was &open8 to the proposal, and noted that he would speak with Dodik about TRANSCO on October 17 at a previously scheduled meeting in Banja Luka. He suggested that the two PMs should call a general shareholders assembly in order to discuss the U.S.-EU proposal in detail, and also push for finalizing this year,s investment and business plan, which were critical for daily operations. Brankovic reiterated his support for the &TRANSCO model,8 which said Bosnia could use in organizing state management of other infrastructure sectors, such as highways and railroads. Brankovic supported the proposal to suspend the General Director of TRANSCO, noting that the General Director has allowed his personal politics to get in the way of managing the company on a technical level. DODIK &ACCEPTS8 TRANSCO PROVIDED IT IS ETHNICALLY-DIVDEDED -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) In a meeting on October 16, Dodik claimed that he did not reject the TRANSCO model of state-level management for major infrastructure, but at the same time he insisted that TRANSCO must be reorganized along ethnic lines. Dodik noted that other energy institutions in Bosnia, such as the Elektroprivredas, were already divided into separate operating companies based in Mostar, Sarajevo and Banja Luka. (Comment: In other words, Dodik repeated his earlier unacceptable proposal that any unified TRANSCO must consist of three sub-TRANSCOs responsible for day-to-day management decisions, including investment decisions, with one of those sub-companies operating exclusively in the RS. End Comment) Dodik claimed that he never wanted to obstruct the work of the company, but that its current organization had not protected RS interests. In addition to reorganizing the company, Dodik said that he wanted to rework the investment strategy so that investment in the RS was guaranteed, explaining that, in his opinion, too much investment had gone to the Federation. (Comment: According to experts, the majority of investment for 2006 and 2007 went to the RS; only in 2008 has the majority investment been planned for the Federation. This was largely why the Serb General Director refused to approve the 2008 investment plan, and RS management officials stopped attending TRANSCO meetings. Dodik,s proposal for guaranteed &equal8 investment in both entities makes no technical or financial sense; investment should go where it is most needed. End Comment.) Dodik welcomed the international community,s attention to TRANSCO, since it underscored RS grievances against the company and forced the Federation to respond. PUHALAC STRONGLY PUSHES FOR DISSOLUTION OF TRANSCO -------------- -------------- ¶6. (C) In an October 15 meeting, RS Minister of Energy Puhalac explained that he personally would prefer that TRANSCO be divided into two companies, along entity lines. Puhalac said that he was frustrated with the Federation, which had ignored RS proposals for restructuring TRANSCO, and that he believed no amount of tinkering would improve company operations. The Ambassador detailed the U.S.-EU proposal for addressing legitimate concerns about TRANSCO,s management. Puhalac immediately dismissed the proposal to temporarily suspend the General Director, claiming that changing personalities would not improve operations. Despite his objections, he noted that the PMs were the shareholders, and noting that he has a &master to serve,8 intimating that ultimately Dodik would make the decisions on TRANSCO. COMMENT -------------- SARAJEVO 00001623 003 OF 003 ¶7. (C) Both Prime Ministers gave enough general support to the U.S.-EU proposal for the EU to continue with preparations for the management audit. However, we need more assurances from the Federation and the RS that they will work with the international facilitator before the person is brought on board. We plan to follow up our discussions with the PMs, who were supposed to discuss TRANSCO on October 17, with a letter to both that provides great detail about the U.S.-EU proposal and requests follow-up from their side. However, if Puhalac,s position was any indication of Dodik,s true position, we have a long way to go to get the RS side to agree to maintain TRANSCO as it is currently organized. Dodik,s proposal to reorganize the company into three ethnically-based, but unified, sub-TRANSCOs amounts to a de facto dismantlement of it, and there is currently consensus within the international community that it must be opposed. We are somewhat concerned, however, that our EU allies -- given their negotiating history with the RS -- may buckle, if the RS continues to insist on such an outcome. ENGLISH