BOSNIA - DODIK SENDS MIXED MESSAGES TO AMBASSADOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SARAJEVO 001619 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR JONES, EUR/SCE(FOOKS/STINCHCOMB); NSC FOR HELGERSON/WILSON;NSC FOR BEIN E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/01/2015 TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL KCRM KDEM KJUS BK SUBJECT: BOSNIA - DODIK SENDS MIXED MESSAGES TO AMBASSADOR AND TAKES A DANGEROUS LINE ON SIPA REF: A. STATE 108619 ¶B. SARAJEVO 1596 ¶C. SARAJEVO 1593 ¶D. SARAJEVO 1531 Classified By: Ambassador Charles English. Reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: On October 16, the Ambassador met with Republika Srpska (RS) Prime Minister Milorad Dodik and warned him that the U.S. was growing increasingly concerned with his statements and actions, particularly his attempts to undermine state-level institutions. The Ambassador underscored that Bosnia could not progress towards EU and NATO accession if the RS continues along this path. The Ambassador urged Dodik to work cooperatively with other Bosnian political leaders to facilitate progress on reforms required for Bosnia's Euro-Atlantic integration. The Ambassador also raise specific U.S. concerns with Dodik's recent challenges to state-level law enforcement and judicial institutions, the Missing Persons Institute (MPI),and the state electricity transmission company (the later exchange is reported septel). Dodik pleaded ignorance about problems facing MPI. Dodik claimed that he was prepared to cooperate with the State Investigation and Protection Agency (SIPA) and the State Prosecutor's office provided they presented a "proper" court order for documents and under certain other conditions. However, Dodik also threatened that the RS would forcibly resist SIPA if these conditions were not met. The Ambassador reminded him firmly that: it is not up to the RS to determine the legal validity of the action; the RS did not have legal standing to assess the validity of a court order; and, the RS could not determine whether state-level law enforcement and judicial institutions had the jurisdiction to pursue their investigation. He warned Dodik that, if the RS chose to confront SIPA and the State Prosecutor's Office, it would be catastrophic for Bosnia and its prospects for Euro-Atlantic integration. END SUMMARY U.S. Concern Over Dodik's Statements and Actions -------------- --- ¶2. (C) During a meeting in Banja Luka on October 16, Ambassador Charles English and Republika Srpska (RS) Prime Minister Milorad Dodik discussed political challenges facing Bosnia. The Ambassador congratulated Dodik on the recent �A;success of his Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) in recent municipal elections and thanked him for his cooperation on election-related issues involving Srebrenica. He told Dodik that the U.S. Government (USG) would like to work in partnership with local leaders in order to help Bosnia progress towards EU and NATO accession. However, he warned Dodik that his statements and recent RS challenges to state-level institutions, including challenges to state-level law enforcement and judicial authorities (Ref B),the Missing Persons Institute (MPI),and the state electricity transmission firm Elektroprenos, are threatening to derail those positive processes. (Note: Dodik's comments on Elektroprenos are reported septel. End Note) The Ambassador urged Dodik to let state institutions carry out their functions. The Ambassador acknowledged that at times state institutions are not always effective, but stressed that instead of seeking to undermine and weaken them, Serb leaders should seek to mend and reform them to the benefit of all citizens of Bosnia. Serb leaders are not advancing Republika Srpska's interests by weakening the state, the Ambassador underscored. He also warned Dodik about his worsening public rhetoric, which the Ambassador stressed, has fueled the poisonous atmosphere that plagues Bosnian politics today. Tihic, Covic, Dodik: Partners for the Future -------------- ¶3. (C) The Ambassador noted that on October 5, Bosnian voters had given a clear mandate to Dodik and his Serb SNSD party, to Sulejman Tihic and his Bosniak Party of Democratic Action (SDA),and to Dragan Covic and his Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ-BiH). Pointing to Tihic's speech in the RS National Assembly (RSNA) on October 13, which acknowledged that the RS was a part of Dayton and could not be unilaterally abolished, the Ambassador urged Dodik to consider Tihic and Covic as his two key partners, and to increase dialogue with them in order to facilitate faster EU SARAJEVO 00001619 002 OF 003 and NATO accession. Dodik claimed that he is willing to work with Tihic and Covic, adding that he "is not closed to dialogue." Dodik praised Tihic for coming to the RSNA and for publicly recognizing that the RS cannot be abolished without the consent of the three constituent nations during his speech there. Dodik said that he is ready to go before the Federation parliament to discuss "important issues." However, Dodik argued that when he had cooperated with Tihic in the past and managed to reach compromises, he found Tihic did not have the backing in his party to carry them out. (Comment: Dodik's private pledge to work with Tihic and the Federation contrasts sharply with his post-election public comments that the SDA was a "completely uninteresting party" and that the Federation was "like a foreign country." End Comment) (Ref C) Dodik Pleads Ignorance on MPI -------------- ¶4. (C) The Ambassador told Dodik about his October 15 visit to the International Commission on Missing Persons (ICMP) DNA laboratory in Banja Luka, saying that the lab does important work that benefits all Bosnians. He expressed concern that the RS Operational Team for Tracing Missing Persons (RSOT) had failed to work cooperatively with the state-level MPI -- despite Dodik's promises that it would do so. In fact, the Ambassador noted, the RSOT had made it impossible for MPI to fulfill its mandate. The Ambassador noted that the RSOT had recently confiscated property belonging to MPI, denied it access to its offices, archives, and morgue, and had refused to share information with it. Dodik pleaded ignorance to any difficulties that the RSOT has caused for MPI. He explained that 20 family members of missing persons came to him and complained that the MPI was not doing its job, and urged him to pull out of it completely. According to Dodik, he told them that he could not pull out of MPI, but he agreed to create the RSOT instead. He asserted that the RSOT was not intended in any way to usurp authority from the MPI, and he said that if it has done so, he was "not behind that, and it is not what we agreed." Dodik complained that it is, "hard to control the behavior of regular people," saying that when it comes to this issue, they are "very emotional and difficult to talk to." The Ambassador agreed to send Dodik additional details about RSOT challenges to MPI, and Dodik pledged to investigate. The Ambassador told Dodik that the two organizations need to cooperate, not compete, in order to better assist the families. Dodik Prepared to Resist SIPA -------------- ¶5. (C) The Ambassador told Dodik that any challenge to state-level law enforcement and judicial institutions (i.e., SIPA and the State Prosecutor's Office) would represent a fundamental challenge to the rule of law in Bosnia, and as such, have catastrophic consequences for Bosnia's ability to move forward on a positive agenda. Dodik responded that, although he does not "have much confidence in SIPA," he does not challenge its jurisdiction in the RS." He said that "if SIPA officers come to the RS and demand documents with a proper order, then they will get what they need." Dodik added that "if they come without an order, then they had better not come," underscoring that if SIPA tried to use force "we will resist." Dodik also insisted that any court order must spell out exactly who is being investigated and what documents are needed. He said that his Bosniak Justice Minister Dzerard Selman would be the person to make an assessment about the legality of any order. The Ambassador reminded Dodik that it is up to the agency that issues an order to ensure its validity, and that the recipient of such an order does not have any discretion about whether or not to comply. ¶6. (C) Dodik then claimed that all the documents related to the issues being investigated are available on the RSNA web site. (Note: We doubt that this is true, but it is beside the point. As Dodik no doubt knows, under Bosnia law only original documents or certified copies of them are admissible as evidence, which is one reason why state-level law enforcement and judicial authorities have requested them. End Note) Dodik said that "if it comes to the point where SIPA comes to arrest him," he would be "OK" and that he would SARAJEVO 00001619 003 OF 003 "obey the law." He added that he would then "hire one of the best American law firms" to protect him, and would "file charges against the State Prosecutor's Office for abuse of authority." The Ambassador reiterated that failure to comply unconditionally with a court order would constitute a fundamental challenge to rule of law, and that a confrontation with SIPA would be a complete disaster. Dodik assured the Ambassador that he has no intention of engaging in a confrontation, but insisted that "if they try to come in here with weapons, they will be thrown out," adding "we will not be the ones to be thrown out." The U.S., EU, and Gregorian Are Plotting Against Me -------------- -------------- ¶7. (C) Dodik insisted that he is "facing an abuse of the prosecutorial system and of SIPA," and he blamed Principal Deputy High Representative (PDHR) Gregorian for it. He claimed that one of the judges on Bosnia's Constitutional Court told him that "Gregorian directs international judges how to act and even threatens them." Dodik complained that Covic and Party for Democratic Progress (PDP) President Mladen Ivanic have been involved in similar situations, where they became bogged down in complex legal proceedings and it had taken years "to prove their innocence." Dodik said that such cases usually start with "negative campaigns in the Sarajevo media" after which "SIPA busts in without any order or authorization, and searches for documents." Dodik said that "everyone is scared and SIPA is backed up by the EU and the US, so no one asks any questions." Dodik insisted that "this is the scenario that we see developing here." He then repeated that SIPA "had better not come to the RS without legal authorization." Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) Despite strong warnings and an offer of ongoing cooperation, Dodik remained belligerent about the ongoing SIPA/State Prosecutor investigation against him. Dodik's characterization of SIPA's actions to date were inaccurate (i.e., SIPA officers have presented a proper order for documents to RS authorities) and his attempts to attach conditions to his cooperation are inconsistent with his legal obligation to obey the court order unconditionally. The exchange reinforced the view that Dodik is prepared to challenge the jurisdiction of the State Prosecutor and SIPA if the court order authorizing the seizure of documents does not meet his standards. He made it clear that he trusts neither institution, and that he sees the case as a political vendetta against him. All of this suggests that at some point there is likely to be serious confrontation between the RS and state-level law enforcement and judicial institutions. ENGLISH