BOSNIA - SDA ISSUES WARNING TO DODIK AND THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SARAJEVO 001507 SIPDIS EUR/SCE (HYLAND, FOOKS),NSC FOR HELGERSON E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/22/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR PHUM KDEM BK SUBJECT: BOSNIA - SDA ISSUES WARNING TO DODIK AND THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY; WE WILL NOT GO QUIETLY Classified By: Ambassador Charles English. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The Party of Democratic Action (SDA) main board on September 20 adopted a declaration that: decried the "perpetual and systematic obstruction" of Dayton by "some politicians" (read: Republika Srpska PM Dodik); stressed that Dayton had not been implemented; underscored that it was necessary to change Bosnia's constitution before OHR closed if the country were to "function independently;" and warned that if OHR closed absent full Dayton implementation and constitutional reform, the constitution of the pre-war Republic of BiH -- without entities -- would come back into force. In a subsequent interview, SDA President Sulejman Tihic explained that the international community's failure to "act decisively" in the face of repeated challenges by "anti-Dayton forces" had only encouraged them to engage in more anti-Dayton activity. Tihic also warned that if these trends continue, a conflict is likely. OHR responded swiftly, condemning the declaration as inconsistent with Dayton. Serb leaders claimed that the declaration was aimed at provoking a political crisis that would ensure extended international engagement in Bosnia. They also accused Tihic of advocating war. Though there is certainly an element of political grandstanding to the SDA main board conclusions, it also reflects a genuine assessment that Dodik and the Serbs intend to undermine the state, perhaps even destroy it, and fear that the international community is prepared to acquiesce in that outcome. In this context, SDA's declaration can be read as a warning to both Dodik and the international community that Bosniaks are not prepared to quietly accept such an outcome. END SUMMARY SDA Declares Dayton Implementation Incomplete -------------- ¶2. (SBU) On September 20, the SDA main board adopted a "Declaration on the Implementation of the Dayton Peace Agreement." The declaration -- the brainchild of SDA chairman Sulejman Tihic -- highlights "some politicians'" (read: Republika Srpska (RS) PM Dodik) "perpetual and systematic obstruction" of Dayton, underscores that Dayton has not been implemented, "instructs" OHR to actively and resolutely push reforms in Bosnia, and warns that OHR cannot close before Dayton is implemented and constitutional reform is completed. SDA's declaration contains a three-page list of those aspects of Dayton the party considers have not yet been fully implemented. The list includes, inter alia, failure to implement: Annex VII, which deals with refugees and displaced persons; Annex VIII, which deals with the Commission for the Preservation of National Monuments; and Annex IX, which deals with the establishment of public corporations. SDA's "Opt Out" Clause -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The SDA Declaration concludes that if OHR closes before the full implementation of Dayton and prior to constitutional reform, which SDA maintains is essential if Bosnia is to function efficiently in a post-OHR environment, then Bosnia's pre-war constitution will come back into force. SDA asserts that there is a legal basis within Dayton for this, but also argues that the parliament of the Republic of BiH (RBiH) attached what amounts to a reservation to its ratification of the Dayton Peace Agreement. The reservation made the Dayton Peace Agreement's approval contingent upon its full implementation and provided for the restoration of the pre-war RBiH constitution -- a constitution without entities -- if Dayton were not fully implemented. Tihic Elaborates: Expect a Conflict -------------- ¶4. (C) After the session, Tihic stated publicly that if the PIC decides to close OHR early (i.e., prior to completion of constitutional reform),the international community will be to blame for the subsequent destabilization of the Bosnian state. He also warned that the international community's failure to respond to repeated challenges to Dayton and efforts to undermine the state had only "encouraged anti-Bosnian forces." Most dramatically, Tihic warned publicly that an early OHR closure coupled with continuing divisions among the three constituent peoples could lead to SARAJEVO 00001507 002 OF 003 conflict. (Note: During the August 20 dinner between Bosnian political leaders and DAS Jones, Tihic issued a similar warning, repeatedly stressing that Bosnia's current constitutional arrangements made it impossible for the state to function independently. End Note) Kebo: We Had No Choice -------------- ¶5. (C) Mirsad Kebo -- Vice President of both SDA and the Federation -- told us that this declaration constitutes SDA's response to RS attempts to undermine the state and to RS calls for closure of OHR in November. Kebo signaled to us that the declaration is a last-ditch effort to signal to the international community that its presence is still required in Bosnia to -- as he put it -- "prevent another war." He said that if the PIC prematurely closes OHR, SDA will interpret this decision as a unilateral move by the PIC countries to withdraw from an international agreement, meaning Dayton, despite the fact that the agreement has not been fully implemented. Kebo stressed that SDA is concerned that the RS might take steps toward secession once OHR closes, while the U.S. is preoccupied with its elections and the subsequent transition. He explained that the original Bosnian constitution would allow the Bosniaks and Croats to use force to defend their territory. (Comment: Kebo has been one of our more upbeat interlocutors, who has generally expressed confidence in the future of Bosnia. Therefore, we find his level of pessimism in this case particularly striking. End Comment.) OHR Hammers Tihic -------------- ¶6. (C) OHR had obtained a draft copy of the SDA declaration prior to the September 20 main board meeting, and on September 19 HighRep Lajcak sent a letter to Tihic to make him aware of some "major concerns" about it. Lajcak characterized the declaration as "a threat of unilateral change to the Dayton Peace Agreement." He also stressed that the HighRep and PIC make judgments about Dayton implementation and decisions on OHR's closure. Finally, Lajcak urged Tihic to reconsider adopting the declaration, warning that to do so would "weaken the standing of SDA in international community circles." ¶7. (SBU) Tihic and SDA failed to heed OHR's warning, and after SDA adopted the declaration, OHR responded almost immediately to it. OHR publicly criticized the declaration as not in line with Dayton and characterized it as solely an election-year ploy. OHR spokesperson Suzana Bursac reiterated that the PIC Steering Board required all sides in Bosnia to respect Dayton. "When it comes to closing OHR, the High Representative and the PIC will determine whether and when the level of Dayton implementation justifies the abolition of the High Representative's function," she said. SDA rejected OHR's assessment and cited OHR's reaction as proof that -- as SDA has been stressing for months -- HighRep Lajcak is pro-Serb, chiding SDA quickly on this declaration while taking little or no action against Dodik's anti-Dayton and anti-state rhetoric and actions. Serbs Weigh In -------------- ¶8. (C) Dodik responded by stating that the SDA declaration is not realistic, "but we are not so naQve as to not understand what is wanted." Dodik added that the declaration showed that SDA has not become a mature political party after 18 years of political activity. He noted that the existing Bosnian constitution does not present an obstacle to the reform processes on Bosnia's path to the EU, adding that the only way to adopt a new constitution is for the people in Bosnia to agree on it. (Note: Dodik the same weekend made equally unconstructive, though unrelated, statements calling for the return of competencies that OHR "forced" the entities to transfer to the state and suggesting that, if this did not happen, Bosnia should be peacefully partitioned. We will report these in detail septel. End Note) ¶9. (SBU) RSNA speaker Igor Radojcic -- also of Dodik's Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) -- called the SDA declaration a "continuation of dangerous politics of SARAJEVO 00001507 003 OF 003 parties from Sarajevo." Radojcic added that the declaration is calling not for Dayton implementation but a complete constitutional revision and prolonged international engagement in Bosnia. Council of Ministers chairman Nikola Spiric of SNSD opined that this declaration is ineffective and should not stir up too much controversy. Party of Democratic Progress (PDP) leader Mladen Ivanic accused SDA of "digging up hatchets" by threatening to return to the constitution of the Republic of Bosnia. Ivanic stressed that it is obvious that SDA is preparing to precipitate a serious political crisis in Bosnia. Serb press commentaries disingenuously characterized Tihic's warning that a conflict was possible in Bosnia as openly advocating war. Comment -------------- ¶10. (C) We do not believe the SDA declaration is simply an election-year ploy, though there are undoubtedly elements of political grandstanding associated with it. Constitutional reform has never been a condition for OHR closure, nor is it realistic to make it one. However, our judgment is that the declaration reflects a genuine concern -- possibly even desperation -- over what SDA perceives as a deliberate campaign by Dodik to destabilize and undermine the state and how that campaign might unfold after OHR closes. The declaration also reflects a growing frustration within SDA -- and among Bosniaks in general -- over the international community's passiveness in the face of statements and actions from Dodik that undermine the state. OHR's decision to respond quickly and forcefully to SDA, while understandable, will only reinforce the growing perception view among Bosniaks that the HighRep (as well as some others in the international community) has abandoned them and, for all intents and purposes, has sided with Dodik. In this context, SDA's declaration can be read as a warning to both Dodik and the international community that Bosniaks are not prepared to quietly accept such an outcome. ENGLISH