BOSNIA - DISENFRANCHISEMENT IN POSAVINA LEAVES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SARAJEVO 001481

SIPDIS

EUR/SCE (HYLAND, FOOKS),NSC FOR HELGERSON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/17/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR PHUM KDEM BK
SUBJECT: BOSNIA - DISENFRANCHISEMENT IN POSAVINA LEAVES
CROAT PARTIES STIRRED, NOT SHAKEN

REF: SARAJEVO 1435

Classified By: Michael J. Murphy, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY. The Central Election Commission (CEC)
decided on September 9 not to approve voter registration
applications for 2,084 Croats from the Posavina region
(details of the Croats' dilemma are reported reftel). The
party that helped spearhead the effort to register these
Croats is launching an appeal with the Court of Bosnia and
Herzegovina and has exchanged verbal fire with the Serbs.
Public reaction among political and religious leaders has
belied private indifference, suggesting these leaders will
exploit the issue to advance their political agendas but care
little about the outcome. END SUMMARY.

CEC Says No
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2. (C) The CEC decided on September 9 not to approve voter
registration applications for 2,084 Croats from the Posavina
region, currently living in Croatia (reftel). The CEC
entertained two proposals at its session: 1) including these
Croats on a supplemental voter registry, or 2) allowing all
five thousand Bosnians whose applications the CEC rejected to
submit ballots along with the documents that had been missing
from their original applications. (Note: The latter
proposal would have benefited both Croats and non-Croats.
End Note.) The overwhelming majority of the CEC -- including
one of the two Croat members -- opposed both proposals. Our
contacts in OHR told us that the proposals failed because the
Bosnian election law outlines specific deadlines for
registration and voting, and granting an exception to the
Posavina Croats would have constituted a de facto
prolongation of the registration period. According to OHR,
the majority of CEC members were reluctant to grant an
exception to those deadlines because they feared deviating
from the letter of the law.

Reactions: Court Appeal, Angry Letters
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3. (SBU) Not surprisingly, the Croatian Peasants' Party/New
Croat Initiative (HSS/NHI) -- which hoped to win the mayoral
position in the Republika Srpska (RS) municipality of
Derventa with these additional Croat votes -- has responded
to the CEC's decision by sending letters to the CEC and
HighRep Lajcak demanding a reversal of the decision. HSS/NHI
and the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ)-1990 together plan to
submit an appeal to the Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the
next legal step for those who are dissatisfied with CEC
decisions. The Bosnian daily Oslobodjenje reports, though,
that their appeal might not have legal standing, as it was
due 48 hours after the CEC's decision and required a written
rejection from CEC of the voter applications. The CEC,
according to Oslobodjenje, issued no such written decision.
In the meantime, the birth registries for this group were
returned to Bosnia from Croatia on September 12, which should
allow them to register as Diaspora voters in the 2010 general
elections.

Parties Exchange Rhetoric
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4. (SBU) Croat political and religious leaders are reacting
to the CEC's decision with predictable acrimony, hurling
invective primarily at the Serb CEC members. Davor Cordas,
RS Vice President and member of the HDZ-BiH presidency,
declared that the CEC's decision was not surprising, adding
that his party will continue to fight for its people and use
all legal means to fight this decision. The Bosnian Croat
daily newspaper Dnevni List carried a commentary that
asserted these Croats are now suffering "the same genocide
and expulsion from the same aggressor" that beleaguered them
during the war. Cardinal Vinko Puljic called the CEC's
decision "scandalous and unreasonable," stressing that it
underscores the Serbs' desire to continue to expel Croats
from their state. HSS/NHI leader Ivan Krndelj commented that
the Serb CEC members' failure to support enfranchisement
demonstrates that the RS has failed the test of Dayton and
cannot be a permanent entity. In response, representatives
of RS PM's Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD)
addressed the CEC, calling Krndelj's statements "hate speech"

SARAJEVO 00001481 002 OF 002


and claiming that the RS has returned 99% of the property
belonging to the Posavina Croats but cannot force them to
return.

Comment
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5. (C) Despite their angry statements in the press, Croat
leaders have been privately silent on this issue. Puljic had
ample face-time with the Ambassador both before and after the
CEC made its decision, but he did not bring up the issue.
Likewise, our contacts in Mostar -- including highly-placed
officials in both HDZs -- did not raise the issue with us.
When we raised it with the secretary general of HDZ-1990, he
went so far as to say the Posavina Croats politically don't
matter. This suggests that Croat political leaders -- at
least from the largest two Croat parties -- care more about
the issue than the outcome, and more about Herzegovina than
their Croat constituency in the RS. But as the elections get
closer, we would not be surprised if HDZ-1990 President Bozo
Ljubic -- whose party has campaigned aggressively on
nationalist themes -- used this outcome as another reason to
assert that Croats are the victims of country-wide
discrimination and that they require a third entity to
protect themselves.
ENGLISH