BOSNIA: NO BREAKTHROUGHS IN SIX-PARTY TALKS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SARAJEVO 001348 SIPDIS EUR/SCE (HYLAND, FOOKS),NSC FOR HELGERSON E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/26/2018 TAGS: BK PGOV PREL SUBJECT: BOSNIA: NO BREAKTHROUGHS IN SIX-PARTY TALKS Classified By: CDA Judith Cefkin for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D) ¶1. (SBU) Summary: As expected, Saturday's meeting of the leaders of the six parties in the BiH ruling coalition did not yield any major compromises on the country's most contentious issues. All parties agreed to resume substantive discussions on constitutional reform immediately after the October 5 municipal elections, and they concurred on the need for BiH to move rapidly toward EU membership. But the logjam remains on state property ownership, the means of resolving the status of Brcko District, the question of a census in 2011, and the prospect of a law banning genocide denial. The parties will meet again in mid-October for further dialogue, but the atmosphere among the leaders following Saturday's meeting is one of general pessimism on the possibility of consensus. Bosniak and Croat parties are clamoring for--and Serb parties are balking at--more active international involvement in these debates. End Summary. POLITE INTRANSIGENCE ON KEY ISSUES -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The leaders of the six parties in the BiH governing coalition--Sulejman Tihic's Party for Democratic Action (SDA),Bosniak tri-presidency member Haris Silajdzic's Party for Bosnia and Herzegovina (SBiH),Dragan Covic's Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ-BiH),Bozo Ljubic's Croatian Democratic Union 1990 (HDZ-1990),RS PM Milorad Dodik's Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD),and Mladen Ivanic's Party for Democratic Progress (PDP)--gathered on Saturday, August 23, for a discussion about reforms necessary for OHR closure and eventual EU accession. (Note: PDP vice-president Branislav Borenovic attended the talks in lieu of Ivanic, who was on vacation. End Note.) The talks--which Tihic chaired--did not yield any major breakthroughs, although the participants refrained from inflammatory statements, giving an air of genuine desire for dialogue. HighRep Lajcak praised the party leaders for their candor and lauded the frank exchange of opinions. The party leaders, though, are not optimistic about the prospects for near-term compromise on these reforms, and the Bosniaks and Croats are seeking greater international involvement to make progress possible. ¶3. (SBU) Saturday's agenda included a discussion of EU accession requirements, the timing of negotiations on constitutional reform, the resolution of state property ownership, the status of Brcko District, the question of a census in 2011, and the prospect of a law banning genocide denial. All sides agreed that closer ties with the EU are essential and that they must work toward a positive European Commission progress report on BiH. The participants tasked the Council of Ministers--whose President, Nikola Spiric, attended the meeting--to identify the reasons Bosnia has not yet fulfilled the remaining SAA requirements and prepare a list of unmet requirements for the next meeting, scheduled for mid-October. ¶4. (C) All sides agreed on the need for dialogue on constitutional reform following the October 5 municipal elections, but they did not discuss the substance of those reforms at Saturday's meeting. The leaders could not forge consensus on state property or the status of Brcko District, two criteria for OHR closure. On state property, the parties agreed to submit their own proposals and legal opinions, but Dodik and Silajdzic were adamant on their diametrically opposite views--Dodik insisting on entity retention of disputed property, and Silajdzic demanding that the state take ownership. On Brcko, Lajcak's advisor told us that all participants except Tihic and Covic favor resolving the Brcko District issue with a state law, rather than constitutional amendments. This position marks a change in what party leaders had previously articulated to Principal Deputy HighRep Raffi Gregorian. PDHR Gregorian told us that prior to Lajcak,s bilateral meetings with the party leaders in July and August, all party leaders except Silajdzic supported constitutional amendments on Brcko, sufficient to outvote Silajdzic and pass the amendments. According to PDHR Gregorian, Lajcak appears to be seeking an easier resolution on Brcko and is now backing the state law approach, possibly hoping to bring a speedy closure to OHR. ¶5. (SBU) The parties tried unsuccessfully to come to a conclusion on the question of holding a census in 2011. Lajcak urged them to focus the census on economic and social questions, rather than including details on ethnicity. Only Silajdzic supported this position, according to Lajcak's advisor. Dodik insisted that the census include ethnic data, which he assessed would be in the Bosnian Serbs' best SARAJEVO 00001348 002 OF 002 interest, and Tihic and Ljubic did not support a census at all. The party leaders also could not concur on a state law banning genocide denial. Dodik insisted that such a law define all such crimes in the past, such as the murder of Serbs at Jasenovac during World War II. He did not deny that genocide occurred in Srebrenica in 1995, but he added that any form of politicization of the genocide question is unacceptable. PARTIES' REACTIONS: RESIGNED TENACITY -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Tihic's chief of office told us that Tihic was disappointed in Saturday's meeting and believes the current atmosphere in BiH is not conducive to progress on the items discussed. He expressed pessimism that Bosnia would be able to fulfill its SAA requirements given the current political stalemate. The resolution of the status of Brcko District also has grinded to a halt, as parties that once agreed on the need for a constitutional amendment on Brcko--including SNSD--now do not support it. Tihic told the press that the next six-party meeting will be held in the middle of October, and PDP leader Ivanic will host the meeting. Spiric told the press that when the leaders reach a conclusion, the Council of Ministers will do all in its power to implement it. ¶7. (SBU) Echoing Tihic's sentiments, Silajdzic told the press that the parties' positions diverge too widely for compromise to be feasible. Covic and Ljubic publicly stated that no topic discussed at Saturday's meeting could be resolved without constitutional reforms, emphasizing that Bosnia's two-entity structure would not allow the country to advance toward the European Union. Dodik reiterated that the RS must be preserved, but he added that he did not perceive Saturday's talks as a threat to the entity. ¶8. (SBU) HighRep Lajcak conceded publicly that Saturday's caucus was more of a discussion than a negotiation, but added that the leaders did progress on items tied to European integration. He assessed that Spiric was overly optimistic with his take on Bosnia's compliance with the SAA criteria, but views the Council's planned status report as a positive step. His advisor told us that, overall, Lajcak was pleased with the atmosphere of the talks, as it was more positive than in the past two meetings of party leaders. COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (C) Although the parties did not reach any major conclusions on Saturday, they avoided divisive rhetoric and agreed on the need for further discussions on constitutional reform and closer ties with the EU. They are willing to engage in dialogue on key issues necessary for OHR closure and progress toward eventual EU accession, but they are unlikely to resolve these issues on their own. The Bosniaks and Croats will continue to look to the USG to take a strong role in bringing these items to closure. CEFKIN