BOSNIA: SIX-PARTY TALKS REOPEN DIALOGUE ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SARAJEVO 001343

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/SCE (HYLAND, FOOKS),NSC FOR HELGERSON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/22/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV BK
SUBJECT: BOSNIA: SIX-PARTY TALKS REOPEN DIALOGUE ON
CONTENTIOUS REFORMS

Classified By: CDA Judith Cefkin for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Sulejman Tihic--chairman of the Party for
Democratic Action (SDA)--will host a discussion on August 23
with the six ruling parties in the BiH state government.
These talks, which Tihic called at the urging of High
Representative Miroslav Lajcak, will reopen stalled dialogue
on Bosnia's internal organization and the fulfillment of
criteria for OHR closure and eventual EU membership.
Proposed agenda items include SAA and EU Partnership
Implementation, the question of a census in 2011, how to move
forward on constitutional reform, possible adoption of a law
on genocide denial, and objectives and conditions for OHR
closure--such as resolving state property issues and the
status of Brcko District, and completing a war crimes
strategy. No party has given any indication of preparedness
to concede on key redlines, and no party leader has expressed
optimism that the talks will result in tangible progress.
However, this gathering of Bosnian decisionmakers represents
at least a first step in reopening dialogue on these issues.
End Summary.

PRELUDE TO A STALEMATE
--------------


2. (SBU) SDA has invited the other parties in the state-level
ruling coalition--Bosniak tri-presidency member Haris
Silajdzic,s Party for Bosnia and Herzegovina (SBiH),Dragan
Covic,s Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ-BiH),Bozo Ljubic,s
Croatian Democratic Union 1990 (HDZ-1990),RS Prime Minister
Milorad Dodik,s Alliance of Independent Social Democrats
(SNSD),and Mladen Ivanic's Party for Democratic Progress
(PDP)--to a discussion on numerous contentious political
questions in Bosnia. HighRep Lajcak--who will attend and
help facilitate the discussion--encouraged Tihic to convene
the talks so that Bosnia can progress more quickly toward the
European Union, having recently signed the SAA. Despite this
being the height of the vacation season, all party leaders,
with the exception of PDP,s Ivanic, will attend. Ivanic
will send his deputy.


3. (C) Lajcak told the Steering Board Ambassadors that
Tihic's proposed agenda includes SAA and EU Partnership
Implementation, the question of a census in 2011,
constitutional reform, possible adoption of a law on genocide
denial, and objectives and conditions for OHR closure--such
as resolving state property issues and the status of Brcko
District, and completing a war crimes strategy. Lajcak said
that the constitutional reform discussion would simply focus
on possible timing for starting talks, not on specific reform
proposals. Tihic's chief of office, Sehada Kolenovic, told
us that Tihic plans to focus the talks on those topics on
which he believes he can forge a whole or partial consensus.
Kolenovic noted that Tihic also plans to admonish the Council
of Ministers for its passivity, pressuring them--particularly
Prime Minister Nikola Spiric (SNSD)--to take more tangible
action. Tihic also will reinforce SDA's support for OHR, as
Tihic anticipates that the Bosnian Serb parties will urge a
quick closing of OHR. On constitutional reform, Kolenovic
told us that, in spite of Lajcak's preference for a general
discussion, Tihic hopes to propose reviving the April 2006
package, discussing at the meeting those elements on which he
believes all parties could agree. Tihic plans to try to use
the carrot of EU accession prospects to galvanize the six
parties to action, but--according to his chief of office--he
is not optimistic about the result.

PARTIES, OPENING POSITIONS: NO SURPRISES
--------------


4. (SBU) The parties' stated positions on the 23 August talks
are similar to their stances during the constitutional reform
negotiations in 2006, but this time their rhetoric is more
audacious. Over the past several months, RS PM Dodik has
repeatedly stated his refusal to transfer any more
competencies from the entity to the state, and Croat
parties--countenanced by Dodik--have talked more frequently
about a Croat "third entity." The atmosphere among party
leaders in advance of the talks is one of pessimism and
intransigence, compounded by concern over the escalation of
unconstructive bombast on all sides.


5. (SBU) Damir Arnaut--Silajdzic's principal advisor on legal
and constitutional matters--told us that he believes Tihic's
agenda is too ambitious and that consensus is only feasible
on issues pertaining directly to the SAA requirements.
Arnaut acknowledged that the meeting might touch on
constitutional reform, but he insisted that the political

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leaders will discuss only modalities, not substance, as any
discussion on constitutional reform prior to the municipal
elections would fail.


6. (SBU) According to the press, Bozo Ljubic of HDZ-1990
promised HighRep Lajcak that he would take a constructive
position on the resolution of state property and resolving
the status of Brcko in the context of the OHR transition.
But Ljubic subsequently emphasized to the press that HDZ-1990
will not accept the current two-entity division of Bosnia,
which will further complicate constitutional reform
discussions (an assessment of each party,s position on
constitutional reform will be reported septel). The Bosnian
press stated that both Ljubic and Covic will "launch an
offensive" at the talks, pushing for constitutional reform
talks to begin immediately after the municipal elections and
insisting on changes to the two-entity structure. A Bosnian
Croat newspaper published a map this week outlining the
three-entity structure that the Croat parties have proposed
in advance of the talks. Covic concluded after a meeting
with Tihic, though, that no movement on constitutional reform
is realistic until after the U.S. presidential elections.


7. (SBU) Although RS PM Dodik has not spoken at length about
constitutional reform in connection with the talks, he has
outlined SNSD's position on a number of other issues. Dodik
told the press that he expects the talks to include a
discussion of a census in Bosnia, which would be the first
since 1991. Dodik stressed that if other leaders do not
agree on this issue, the RS will conduct a census on its own.
The Bosniak parties do not support a census based on
ethnicity because they say it would legitimize ethnic
cleansing. OHR is apparently supporting a plan to conduct a
census that excludes ethnic data, so as to at least get the
data on populations of regions and economic development that
are needed for EU criteria. Dodik also told the daily Glas
Srpske that the resolution of the state property issue at the
talks is essential, adding that "property which is located in
the entities belongs to them, and they can give the
state-level organs that which is necessary for Bosnia,s
functioning for use and nothing else." SBiH advisor Arnaut
stressed to us that his party stands equally firm and
directly opposed on this issue. These topics will probably
be among the most contentious at the talks.


8. (SBU) PDP leader Ivanic told the television station Hayat
that Tihic's suggestion to include a discussion on a law
prohibiting denial of genocide is ludicrous, stressing that
this controversial topic cannot be productively discussed
during the run-up to the local elections. Ivanic also
publicly stated that he does not favor a discussion on
constitutional reform at the talks, as the three
views--Bosniaks stressing a unitary state, Croats arguing for
a third entity, and Serbs pressing for the preservation of
the RS--are mutually exclusive and do not lend well to
compromise. PDP vice president Branislav Borenovic will
attend the talks in lieu of Ivanic, as the latter will be on
vacation.

COMMENT
--------------


9. (C) We do not anticipate any major breakthroughs at the
six-party talks, as the participants do not appear prepared
for compromise on any of the central issues. Tihic's
proposed agenda is ambitious given his desire to stick to
issues on which he can forge a compromise, and he may not
even have time to cover all of the proposed topics. However,
the simple fact that discussions are occurring among top
officials of the major parties makes the talks
worthwhile--even if they are taking place at the insistence
of OHR.
CEFKIN