BOSNIA: SIX-PARTY TALKS REOPEN DIALOGUE ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SARAJEVO 001343 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR/SCE (HYLAND, FOOKS),NSC FOR HELGERSON E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/22/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV BK SUBJECT: BOSNIA: SIX-PARTY TALKS REOPEN DIALOGUE ON CONTENTIOUS REFORMS Classified By: CDA Judith Cefkin for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Sulejman Tihic--chairman of the Party for Democratic Action (SDA)--will host a discussion on August 23 with the six ruling parties in the BiH state government. These talks, which Tihic called at the urging of High Representative Miroslav Lajcak, will reopen stalled dialogue on Bosnia's internal organization and the fulfillment of criteria for OHR closure and eventual EU membership. Proposed agenda items include SAA and EU Partnership Implementation, the question of a census in 2011, how to move forward on constitutional reform, possible adoption of a law on genocide denial, and objectives and conditions for OHR closure--such as resolving state property issues and the status of Brcko District, and completing a war crimes strategy. No party has given any indication of preparedness to concede on key redlines, and no party leader has expressed optimism that the talks will result in tangible progress. However, this gathering of Bosnian decisionmakers represents at least a first step in reopening dialogue on these issues. End Summary. PRELUDE TO A STALEMATE -------------- ¶2. (SBU) SDA has invited the other parties in the state-level ruling coalition--Bosniak tri-presidency member Haris Silajdzic,s Party for Bosnia and Herzegovina (SBiH),Dragan Covic,s Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ-BiH),Bozo Ljubic,s Croatian Democratic Union 1990 (HDZ-1990),RS Prime Minister Milorad Dodik,s Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD),and Mladen Ivanic's Party for Democratic Progress (PDP)--to a discussion on numerous contentious political questions in Bosnia. HighRep Lajcak--who will attend and help facilitate the discussion--encouraged Tihic to convene the talks so that Bosnia can progress more quickly toward the European Union, having recently signed the SAA. Despite this being the height of the vacation season, all party leaders, with the exception of PDP,s Ivanic, will attend. Ivanic will send his deputy. ¶3. (C) Lajcak told the Steering Board Ambassadors that Tihic's proposed agenda includes SAA and EU Partnership Implementation, the question of a census in 2011, constitutional reform, possible adoption of a law on genocide denial, and objectives and conditions for OHR closure--such as resolving state property issues and the status of Brcko District, and completing a war crimes strategy. Lajcak said that the constitutional reform discussion would simply focus on possible timing for starting talks, not on specific reform proposals. Tihic's chief of office, Sehada Kolenovic, told us that Tihic plans to focus the talks on those topics on which he believes he can forge a whole or partial consensus. Kolenovic noted that Tihic also plans to admonish the Council of Ministers for its passivity, pressuring them--particularly Prime Minister Nikola Spiric (SNSD)--to take more tangible action. Tihic also will reinforce SDA's support for OHR, as Tihic anticipates that the Bosnian Serb parties will urge a quick closing of OHR. On constitutional reform, Kolenovic told us that, in spite of Lajcak's preference for a general discussion, Tihic hopes to propose reviving the April 2006 package, discussing at the meeting those elements on which he believes all parties could agree. Tihic plans to try to use the carrot of EU accession prospects to galvanize the six parties to action, but--according to his chief of office--he is not optimistic about the result. PARTIES, OPENING POSITIONS: NO SURPRISES -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The parties' stated positions on the 23 August talks are similar to their stances during the constitutional reform negotiations in 2006, but this time their rhetoric is more audacious. Over the past several months, RS PM Dodik has repeatedly stated his refusal to transfer any more competencies from the entity to the state, and Croat parties--countenanced by Dodik--have talked more frequently about a Croat "third entity." The atmosphere among party leaders in advance of the talks is one of pessimism and intransigence, compounded by concern over the escalation of unconstructive bombast on all sides. ¶5. (SBU) Damir Arnaut--Silajdzic's principal advisor on legal and constitutional matters--told us that he believes Tihic's agenda is too ambitious and that consensus is only feasible on issues pertaining directly to the SAA requirements. Arnaut acknowledged that the meeting might touch on constitutional reform, but he insisted that the political SARAJEVO 00001343 002 OF 002 leaders will discuss only modalities, not substance, as any discussion on constitutional reform prior to the municipal elections would fail. ¶6. (SBU) According to the press, Bozo Ljubic of HDZ-1990 promised HighRep Lajcak that he would take a constructive position on the resolution of state property and resolving the status of Brcko in the context of the OHR transition. But Ljubic subsequently emphasized to the press that HDZ-1990 will not accept the current two-entity division of Bosnia, which will further complicate constitutional reform discussions (an assessment of each party,s position on constitutional reform will be reported septel). The Bosnian press stated that both Ljubic and Covic will "launch an offensive" at the talks, pushing for constitutional reform talks to begin immediately after the municipal elections and insisting on changes to the two-entity structure. A Bosnian Croat newspaper published a map this week outlining the three-entity structure that the Croat parties have proposed in advance of the talks. Covic concluded after a meeting with Tihic, though, that no movement on constitutional reform is realistic until after the U.S. presidential elections. ¶7. (SBU) Although RS PM Dodik has not spoken at length about constitutional reform in connection with the talks, he has outlined SNSD's position on a number of other issues. Dodik told the press that he expects the talks to include a discussion of a census in Bosnia, which would be the first since 1991. Dodik stressed that if other leaders do not agree on this issue, the RS will conduct a census on its own. The Bosniak parties do not support a census based on ethnicity because they say it would legitimize ethnic cleansing. OHR is apparently supporting a plan to conduct a census that excludes ethnic data, so as to at least get the data on populations of regions and economic development that are needed for EU criteria. Dodik also told the daily Glas Srpske that the resolution of the state property issue at the talks is essential, adding that "property which is located in the entities belongs to them, and they can give the state-level organs that which is necessary for Bosnia,s functioning for use and nothing else." SBiH advisor Arnaut stressed to us that his party stands equally firm and directly opposed on this issue. These topics will probably be among the most contentious at the talks. ¶8. (SBU) PDP leader Ivanic told the television station Hayat that Tihic's suggestion to include a discussion on a law prohibiting denial of genocide is ludicrous, stressing that this controversial topic cannot be productively discussed during the run-up to the local elections. Ivanic also publicly stated that he does not favor a discussion on constitutional reform at the talks, as the three views--Bosniaks stressing a unitary state, Croats arguing for a third entity, and Serbs pressing for the preservation of the RS--are mutually exclusive and do not lend well to compromise. PDP vice president Branislav Borenovic will attend the talks in lieu of Ivanic, as the latter will be on vacation. COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (C) We do not anticipate any major breakthroughs at the six-party talks, as the participants do not appear prepared for compromise on any of the central issues. Tihic's proposed agenda is ambitious given his desire to stick to issues on which he can forge a compromise, and he may not even have time to cover all of the proposed topics. However, the simple fact that discussions are occurring among top officials of the major parties makes the talks worthwhile--even if they are taking place at the insistence of OHR. CEFKIN