BOSNIA - LAJCAK STRESSES WEAK HAND DURING MEETING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SARAJEVO 001273 NOFORN SIPDIS EUR/SCE HOH/FOOKS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/06/2015 TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL BK SUBJECT: BOSNIA - LAJCAK STRESSES WEAK HAND DURING MEETING WITH EUR/SCE DIRECTOR HYLAND REF: A. SARAJEVO 1202 ¶B. SARAJEVO 1221 Classified By: DCM Judith B. Cefkin for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D) ¶1. (C/NF) SUMMARY: In a meeting with visiting EUR/SCE Office Director Jason Hyland on August 4, High Representative Miroslav Lajcak stressed his weak hand in dealing with Bosnia's political problems. He said that Republika Srpska (RS) Prime Minister Milorad Dodik can control events by threatening to leave the government, that the EU is not giving Lajcak any support to take stronger measures to reign in Dodik, and that, in particular, the French Presidency has told him not to consider using his Bonn powers. He expressed the fear that Russian determination to close the Office of High Representative (OHR) could lead to an open split between the U.S. and the EU on this issue in the fall. END SUMMARY Dodik Controls Events -------------- ¶2. (C/NF) Visiting EUR/SCE Office Director Jason Hyland accompanied by the DCM and Acting Pol/C met with HighRep Miroslav Lajcak on August 4 to discuss current challenges in Bosnia. Principal Deputy High Representative Raffi Gregorian also attended. Throughout the meeting, Lajcak stressed that the powers of the OHR have been undermined because RS PM Dodik is now able to control the Bosnian political agenda. He said that when he applies pressure on Dodik to pursue reforms, Dodik threatens to go into opposition, which would leave no viable state government in place. Lajcak said the situation could potentially evolve to the point where Dodik, with Russian backing, could say that he no longer respects the HighRep,s authority in Republika Srpska and there would be little that the OHR could do about it. EU Weakness -------------- ¶3. (C/NF) The High Rep said the crux of the problem is EU weakness and unwillingness to confront the Russians. He said the French Presidency has told him not to even consider using Bonn Powers at this time. Further, he said that the French Presidency in deference to Russian sensitivities favors not extending the EUFOR mandate, which would further reinforce the notion that the OHR is a "paper tiger." ¶4. (C/NF) Lajcak said the Russians are determined to press in the fall for the closure of the OHR, and he expressed the fear that this would lead to an open split between the EU and the U.S. on this issue. The EU on the whole, he said, is much closer to the Russian position than that of the U.S. The DCM noted that Transparency International's problems in the RS had focused Berlin's attention on the situation and asked whether the Germans might be able to provide some help here. Lajcak said that the Germans have trouble formulating a common position within their own Foreign Ministry. Nevertheless, he urged the U.S. to engage with European partners and push them to give him more support. ¶5. (C/NF) In response to a question from Office Director Hyland about what influence the European integration process could have on the problem, Lajcak said Bosnia's recent signing of the Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) would create positive momentum over the long term by gradually increasing interest in a European perspective. However, he said that Bosnians are not prepared to make sacrifices at this time to deal with their current political problems in return for a distant future in the EU. August 23 Meeting -------------- ¶6. (C/NF) Lajcak said his office is still developing its new political strategy for the fall. He said that a proposed August 23 meeting with leaders of the six coalition parties should go forward as planned, but he expressed little hope that progress could be made on the remaining Peace Implementation Council Objectives such as Brcko status or the allocation of State Property. Visa Ban Flap -------------- ¶7. (C/NF) Office Director Hyland and the DCM both stressed USG concerns over the precipitous EU move toward lifting the visa ban on Karadzic's family (Reftel A),noting that it would be a mistake to do this before analyzing possible connections to the Mladic network, and the importance of the U.S. and EU going forward on a constructive basis. Lajcak said this was "another illustration" of the weak attitude of the EU. Lajcak said he had taken a firm stand that travel documents would not be returned to the Karadzic family so long as Karadzic was in Belgrade. Then, according to Lajcak, he learned that the EU, without consulting him, had already agreed at the working level (COWEB) to lifting the EU visa ban on the Karadzic family. (Note: In a pre-brief before the meeting with Lajcak, Principal Deputy High Representative Raffi Gregorian noted his consternation over Lajcak's protestations on the one hand and reports from EU contacts that Lajcak himself had taken the initiative to urge a lifting of the visa ban. End note) Comment -------------- ¶8. (C/NF) Lajcak several times called for more U.S. engagement with Europeans to strengthen his hand, and, as usual, presented himself as an unwilling victim of circumstances--Dodik's strong political position, EU weakness, and Russian intransigence. We saw no indications that Lajcak is planning new initiatives to toughen the OHR's approach to dealing with the current political stalemate. The Ambassador will be meeting with Lajcak on August 7 and will pursue these issues further. ENGLISH