BOSNIA - A VISIBLY UPSET DODIK DIMISSES USG

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SARAJEVO 001227

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR(FRIED/JONES),EUR/SCE (HOH/FOOKS),NSC
FOR HELGERSON, OSD FOR BEIN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/01/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV KCRM KJUS PINR EUN BK KDEM PHUM
SUBJECT: BOSNIA - A VISIBLY UPSET DODIK DIMISSES USG
CONCERNS ABOUT HIS STATEMENTS AND ACTIONS

REF: A. SARAJEVO 1113

B. SARAJEVO 1193

Classified By: Ambassador Charles English. Reasons 1.4.(b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Republika Srpska (RS) Prime Minister Milorad
Dodik responded angrily to a letter from Assistant Secretary
Daniel Fried, which outlined USG concerns about statements
and actions by Dodik that created the impression that Dodik
believed the RS can take a path separate form Bosnia as a
whole. The Ambassador personally delivered the letter to
Dodik on July 28 and reviewed U.S. concerns in detail during
the course of a 90-minute meeting. Dodik vehemently denied
that he had a separatist agenda, arguing that his only goal
was for "the RS to be respected." He also rejected
allegations that he, his government, or anyone in his
political party were deliberately seeking to undermine
state-level institutions. Dodik denied, ignored, or
distorted his own record over the last 18 months and sought
to blame Bosnia's problems on the Federation and the conduct
of Sarajevo-based politicians. He accused Transparency
International (TI) of waging a political campaign against him
and dismissed concerns about his own conduct in the TI
affair. In general, Dodik was unrepentant, almost defiant,
and this attitude suggests that we will continue to have
serious problems with him. The challenge, as we have seen,
is that Dodik is capable of attacking the state on so many
fronts that it is difficult to defend it from him. END SUMMARY

Ambassador Outlines USG Concerns to Dodik
--------------


2. (C) On July 28, Ambassador English personally delivered a
letter from Assistant Secretary Daniel Fried to Republika
Srpska (RS) Prime Minister Milorad Dodik expressing USG
concerns that Dodik's statements and action have created the
impression that the RS can take a path separate from Bosnia
as a whole. The Ambassador told Dodik that the U.S. was
concerned by regular public statements by Dodik which 1)
characterized Bosnia as a "temporary or interest category" or
as "an imposed state;" and, 2) speculated about the possible
dissolution of Bosnia. The USG was also unhappy with Dodik's
general rhetorical assault on the state and its institutions,
such as repeated attacks on state-level judicial institutions
and efforts to de-legitimize the state-level public
broadcaster, Bosnia-Herzegovina Radio-Television (BHRT).


3. (C) The Ambassador noted U.S. concern with attempts by
Dodik and his allies in the RS to create parallel legal
structures or institutions in the RS that undermine the state
and its institutions and/or previous reforms. (Note: Two
recent examples are the RS Law on Frozen Foreign Currency
Account and the creation of the RS Operational Team for
tracing Missing Persons. End Note) Finally, the Ambassador
indicated that the U.S. was unhappy with a series of
proposals made by Dodik, his government, and his political
party that were designed to undermine existing state-level
institutions, such as calls for the creation of entity
sub-accounts in the Indirect Taxation Authority and for
entity-level High Judicial and Prosecutorial Councils.
Dodik's statements and actions were creating a dynamic that
could lead to the break-up of Bosnia; such an outcome was
completely unacceptable to the U.S. (Comment: Another example
are SNSD calls for the recreation of the RS intelligence
service. We have reason to believe from other sources that
Dodik's political party plans to challenge the
constitutionality of the State Intelligence Service. End
Comment)

Dodik Responds Angrily and Defensively
--------------


4. (C) At first seemingly stunned by the letter, Dodik
responded emotionally to it, saying the "tone and content are
surprising, inappropriate, nacceptable, and unfair." He
complained that the U.S. had failed to acknowledge how
constructive he and the RS had been. For example, Dodik
argued that he could have stirred up trouble over Srebrenica,
Kosovo, and the Karadzic arrest, but instead used his
leadership to "maintain peace and calm in the RS." Dodik said
that it was his "responsibility" to maintain stability, but
at the same time, Dodik said that he must achieve a

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"delicate" balance between this responsibility and the need
to "satisfy local people." (Comment: Dodik's self-assessment
of his management of Kosovo and Karadzic are self-serving and
inaccurate. In both instances, his rhetoric and actions
created the expectations he claimed he was seeking to manage.
Dodik's assessment of his conduct on Srebrenica is fair,
however. End Comment)


5. (C) Referring to the letter, Dodik denied that he said
that the Peace Implementation Commission (PIC) added
additional conditions for the closure of the Office of the
High Representative (OHR) at its most recent meeting. Dodik
also accused the Sarajevo-based media for printing
"falsifications" about him, and fumed when the Ambassador
reminded him that the Croatian and Slovenian media also
attributed inflammatory comments to him. Dodik defended his
rhetoric in general, saying that he does not want to "create
illusions" but he does want "the RS to be respected." He
conceded that it would be better for him to just "stay quiet"
but then admitted that he has "undergone a certain
transformation in recent years."

Dodik Denies a Separatist Agenda
--------------


6. (C) Dodik told us that he accepted the Stabilization and
Association Agreement (SAA) process, and wanted to help move
Bosnia towards EU candidate status, "as soon as possible."
He vehemently asserted that "separatism is not on my agenda."
He claimed that he is "a serious politician, not an
adventurer." He said that his agenda is about "respecting
the position of the RS within BiH." Dodik told us that he
knows "the RS cannot enter the EU on its own," explaining
that the RS is only "trying to adjust our system to meet EU
requirements." Dodik said that he believes "joint entity
coordinating bodies" could serve as the "one address" in
Bosnia for EU purposes (as opposed to state-level
institutions). "The RS government will continue to work with
BiH in accordance with laws and the constitution," Dodik
said, adding that the RS would participate in constitutional
reform talks provided abolition of entities "was not on the
table."

Dodik Denies, then Justifies, Attacks on State Institutions
-------------- --------------


7. (C) Dodik dismissed allegations that he was undermining
state-level institutions. He also denied that he had
attacked state-level institutions, though he then proceeded
to do just that, often asserting that they were biased
against Serbs. (Note: Dodik stressed this point in particular
when commenting on state-level judicial institutions, the
state-level public broadcaster BHRT, and the Communications
Regulatory Agency. End Note) Dodik presented his proposals,
such as the creation of entity sub-accounts at the Indirect
Taxation Authority, and his actions, such as constitutional
court challenges to the legality of state-level structures,
as rooted in reasonable RS grievances. He refused to
acknowledge that there was a pattern to RS proposals (e.g.,
that their effect was almost always to weaken the authority
and functionality of state-level structures). Dodik also
repeatedly brought up defense reform, calling it a positive
example of RS cooperation with state institutions, adding at
one point that "the military should remain a state
competency."

Ambassador Suggests A Way Forward
--------------


8. (C) After listening to Dodik's response, the Ambassador
suggested a two-part way forward. First, the Ambassador
urged Dodik to pursue "confidence-building measures"
including: 1) Resolving the status of the Srebrenica-Potocari
Memorial Center (where the Srebrenica victims are buried) by
appointing a suitable RS representative to the Executive
Board and by rescinding the RS demand that the Memorial
Center register in the RS (Note: The Executive Board cannot
function until an RS member is appointed. The requirement for
RS registration is an effort to negate the state-level status
of the Memorial Center. End Note); 2) Supporting the request
from the leadership of state-level judicial institutions to
extend the presence of international investigators,

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prosecutors, and judges at the State Prosecutor's Office and
State Court beyond the end of 2009; and, 3) Withdrawing
SNSD's constitutional challenges to state-level institutions,
competencies and previous reforms. Second, the Ambassador
suggested Dodik focus on meeting the five objectives and two
conditions set by the PIC for OHR's closure.


9. (C) Dodik responded to the Ambassador's suggestions with
answers that were either negative or unacceptably
conditional. The notable exception was Dodik's positive
reaction to extending the international presence in
state-level judicial institutions where internationals were
involved in investigating, prosecuting or trying war crimes.
(Note: Dodik adamantly rejected the notion of doing the same
for organized crimes and corruption. End Note) With regard to
the PIC objectives, Dodik argued that state property issue
was "artificial" because it was "already resolved in the
constitution." He accused the HighRep and OHR of "blocking
progress" on state property. Finally, Dodik said that the RS
would not challenge the right of the Bosnian Armed Forces to
use the immovable property it required, but he insisted that
ownership must remain at the entity level.

Dodik Squirms Over Transparency International
--------------


10. (C) Dodik responded to U.S. concerns about recent events
concerning Transparency International (TI) by noting that he
had "no problem with TI, only with the local idiots who work
there." Dodik claimed that TI and its people were
"politically motivated in their work," adding that he had
only "observed" events as they hve unfolded in the media.
Dodik was taken aback hen the Ambassador pointed out that
Dodik's persnal bodyguard and close friend Milos Cubrilovic
ad been driving the so-called "protected witness" i the
case around to give media statements. Dodik, clenching his
fists, said that Cubrilovic is a "good guy, who does things
for me," but then he added somewhat mysteriously that
"Cubrilovic has no official authority over the police."
Dodik also stuck by his patently false public claim that the
State Prosecutor's Office has had information about TI for
five years, even after the Ambassador pointed out to him that
the office did not exist five years ago.

Comment
--------------


11. (C) Dodik was fiercely combative in response to USG
concerns that his statements and actions raised profound
questions about his commitment to keeping the RS inside
Bosnia over the long-term. He either denied he attacked
state-level institutions or justified his attacks as
reasonable, and he repeatedly insisted that he has no
secessionist agenda. On several occasions, he pretended to
not understand how the USG could possibly interpret his
statements or actions as dangerous or destabilizing. Dodik
repeatedly tried to turn the tables, arguing that instead of
being criticized, he should be thanked for everything he has
done to maintain peace and stability in the RS. Dodik's
unrepentant attitude and his observations on issues that
require resolution over the next several months, notably
state and immovable defense property, suggest that he is bent
on continuing down the dangerous path on which he has
embarked.
ENGLISH