BOSNIA - TIHIC THROWS SUPPORT BEHIND DURAKOVIC FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SARAJEVO 001056 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EUR(DICARLO),EUR/SCE(HOH/FOOKS/STINCHOMB), S/WCI(WILLIAMSON AND LAVINE); OSD FOR BEIN E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/01/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PINR KAWC KJUS BK SUBJECT: BOSNIA - TIHIC THROWS SUPPORT BEHIND DURAKOVIC FOR SREBENICA MAYOR REF: A. SARAJEVO 870 ¶B. SARAJEVO 816 ¶C. SARAJEVO 793 ¶D. SARAJEVO 757 Classified By: Ambassador Charles English. Reason 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: On June 19, the Party for Democratic Action (SDA) announced that it would nominate Camil Durakovic, the notorious leader of the Srebrenica separatist movement and organizer of the Srebrenica tent settlement, as their candidate for mayor of Srebrenica. Several senior SDA members have told us that party president Sulejman Tihic drove the decision. The Ambassador called Tihic on June 20 to urge him in strong terms to reconsider and warned about the consequences for U.S.-SDA relations if the party went ahead with the Durakovic nomination. Tihic dug in his heels and accused the U.S. of caring more about Durakovic's nomination than about "war criminals walking the streets" of Srebrenica. Srebrenica residents, including three of the four major "Mothers of Srebrenica" associations, strongly and publicly attacked Tihic, stressing their support for incumbent mayor Abdurahman Malkic. They characterized his decision as risking a split in the Bosniak vote that would enable to election of a Serb mayor, which would aid and abet the "Greater Serbia project" of indicted war criminals Radovan Karadzic and Ratko Mladic. The Party for BiH (SBiH), which is running in coalition with SDA in Republika Srpska (RS),has not endorsed Durakovic, and several SBiH officials have signaled to us that they will not do so. We recommend DAS DiCarlo raise the issue with SBiH President Haris Silajdzic at their bilateral on the margins of the June 24-25 Peace Implementation Council (PIC). Some SDA insiders, most notably Federation VP Mirsad Kebo, have suggested to us that the decision to nominate Durakovic could be reversed, but Tihic is stubborn and generally not prone to changing course once he has staked out a clear public position. END SUMMARY SDA Decides to Nominate Durakovic for Srebrenica -------------- --- ¶2. (SBU) On January 19, the 24-member SDA Presidency decided to nominate Camil Durakovic as the SDA candidate for the Srebrenica mayoralty. Durakovic is the public face of the 2007 Srebrenica secessionist movement that developed in the wake of the February 2007 International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruling that genocide took place in and around Srebrenica in July 1995. Durakovic was the primary organizer of the Sarajevo tent settlement that was part of the secessionist campaign. SDA President Sulejman Tihic announced the SDA decision in an interview with "San," a low circulation, pro-opposition daily, which appeared on the morning of June 20. Tihic publicly justified SDA's decision by citing Durakovic's lack of a wartime past, his current residence in Srebrenica, his English language skills, and his educational background. (Note: Durakovic, a Bosniak refugee and now U.S. citizen, spent the war in the U.S. End Note) Tihic Drives Decision on Durakovic -------------- ¶3. (C) Over the last several weeks, we have engaged repeatedly with key SDA party members, including the nominal leader of the party's hard line faction, Bakir Izetbegovic, and urged them to select a candidate who could help heal Srebrenica's wounds (Ref A). We have been clear that, in our judgment, Durakovic, given his past, lacks these qualifications. Prior to the SDA Presidency meeting, Izetbegovic told us that the party would back someone other than Durakovic, and in a June 18 meeting with the Ambassador, Tihic had all but promised the party would nominate someone more suitable than Durakovic. Several party insiders, including Federation Vice President Mirsad Kebo, told us on June 20 that Tihic, working closely with Sadik Ahmetovic, SDA MP and President of the SDA's Srebrenica Municipal Board, drove the decision on Durakovic. Kebo also suggested that the decision "is not irreversible" since the party has not finalized its full list of mayoral candidates, let alone registered them with the Central Election Commission. Ambassador Urges Tihic to Reconsider -------------- SARAJEVO 00001056 002 OF 003 ¶4. (C) On June 20, the Ambassador called Tihic to express our grave disappointment with SDA's decision to nominate Durakovic. The Ambassador recalled that the U.S. had brokered the Srebrenica election law agreement at the request of the Bosniaks, who had assured us that their aim was to do the right thing for the people of Srebrenica. We had passed on these assurances to Serb political leaders (Ref B). SDA's decision to nominate a separatist amounted to a slap in the face, and it would undermine our ability to broker compromises among Bosnian political leaders and to assist the people of Srebrenica in the future. The Ambassador also reminded Tihic that the U.S. is funding, at Tihic's request, a voter registration/get-out-the-vote campaign that will assist 1991 residents of Srebrenica vote in that municipality regardless of their current place of residence. The Ambassador closed by urging Tihic to reconsider his decision and warning that Tihic will damage relations between his party and the U.S. if he goes ahead with Durakovic. ¶5. (C) Tihic characterized Durakovic as a "uniter" and claimed Durakovic's absence during the war would allow him to move Srebrenica "in the right direction." Tihic assured the Ambassador that SDA could "control Durakovic" and that Durakovic "would cooperate with the U.S." Tihic reviewed decisions SDA had taken that demonstrated its "friendship with the U.S.," including support for the Citizenship Review Commission and deployment of Bosnian troops to Iraq. When pressed, Tihic characterized Serb support for the Srebrenica amendment to BiH Election Law and RS investments in the municipality as "worth zero," since Serbs had committed genocide there. He added that there were no good candidates available because "they had been massacred at Srebrenica." Tihic intemperately attacked the U.S. for being more concerned with Durakovic's nomination than with "war criminals walking the streets" of Srebrenica, adding "every RS politician is a bigger separatist than Durakovic." Srebrenica Associations Attack Tihic -------------- ¶6. (SBU) A "Coalition Board of Srebrenica," which consists of eight Srebrenica-based associations, including three of the four major "Mothers of Srebrenica" associations, reacted angrily to SDA's decision. In an open letter to the SDA Presidency, the Coalition characterized Durakovic as "a puppet and instrument of certain wheelers and dealers...who live outside the town." They also questioned how someone who tried to organize a collective movement of Bosniaks from Srebrenica could effectively represent the interests of those who have returned. The Coalition reminded SDA that Malkic, the incumbent, enjoyed their support and the support of "an enormous number of citizens of both ethnicities living in Srebrenica." In a strongly worded passage, the Coalition warned that if SDA does not nominate Malkic, Tihic "will have to take the historical consequences for (Bosniaks) losing power in Srebrenica...and for the definite realization of the Greater Serbian project started by Radovan Karadzic and Ratko Mladic." Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) Tihic's reasons for selecting Durakovic are likely varied. Some attribute it to his feud with the Reis, who supports Malkic; some to internal SDA party politics. Some believe that Tihic wants a malleable mayor, who will do his bidding. Malkic had to be pushed by Tihic and others in SDA hierarchy into supporting the Srebrenica Special Status movement in 2007, and Tihic was upset with Malkic in May this year for reaching agreement with the local Serb political leadership on amendments to the Srebrenica Municipal Statute that would have ensured reasonable protections against outvoting for all of Srebrenica's ethnic groups. Finally, some characterize Tihic as a helpless Othello who was maneuvered into a poor decision by a conniving Iago, in this case Sadik Ahmetovic, who is himself seeking to manipulate Durakovic for political and financial gain. ¶8. (C) It is unclear whether the SBiH, which is running in coalition with the SDA in the RS, will support Durakovic. In theory, the coalition agreement allows them to block his SARAJEVO 00001056 003 OF 003 nomination. Several party leaders have told us that they would, but the decision ultimately rests with party leader Haris Silajdzic. We have raised our concerns about Durakovic with Silajdzic in the past, and we plan to approach him again on June 23. We recommend DAS DiCarlo do the same during their bilateral on the margins of the PIC. Regardless, Tihic is notoriously stubborn, and the scathing public attacks on him by the Coalition Board of Srebrenica may prompt him to dig his heels in farther. Thus far, Tihic's public and private rhetoric suggests he is likely to approach this decision in the same short-sighted and unyielding manner in which he approached his decision to withdraw from the political agreement on police reform. ENGLISH