BRAZIL'S CENTRAL BANK SETS NEW RESERVE REQUIREMENTS ON

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SAO PAULO 000086 SIPDIS STATE PASS USTR FOR KDUCKWORTH STATE PASS EXIMBANK STATE PASS OPIC FOR DMORONSE, NRIVERA, CMERVENNE DEPT OF TREASURY FOR JHOEK SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON EFIN EINV BR SUBJECT: BRAZIL'S CENTRAL BANK SETS NEW RESERVE REQUIREMENTS ON LEASING DEPOSITS SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFED--PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The Brazilian Central Bank (CB) has established new reserve requirements on commercial leasing operations in order to close a loophole that allowed companies to avoid Brazil's high reserve requirements. This action will also serve to tighten credit, control inflation, improve efficiency of monetary policy, and extend equal treatment to the different funding instruments available to the banking system. These measures are designed to further insulate the Brazilian economy from the U.S. credit crisis, with the goal of reassuring investors that Brazil remains a viable investment option. The CB will enforce the new rules gradually beginning in May through January 2009 at which time the CB will require banks to deposit 25 percent (similar to that applied to time deposits) of their capital stock derived from leasing companies. The reserve requirements may curb credit growth on the margins but are unlikely to derail the continued expansion of Brazil's credit market. Overall, the measure is likely to put off short-term interest rate hikes, and will signal that the CB is taking measures to strengthen Brazil's credit market. END SUMMARY. Progressive Reserve Requirements for Leasing -------------- ¶2. (SBU) On January 31, the Brazilian Central Bank (CB) instituted new capital requirements for commercial leasing operations, including banks and other leasing agents, that had been exempt from reserve requirements. Brazil is home to the world's highest reserve requirements, and one of the few countries that still imposes reserve requirements on time deposits. Unlike traditional demand deposit reserve requirements, the new CB requirement grants provisions for the reserves for leasing operations to be invested in federal bonds rather than sitting as cash in the CB vaults. According to CB data, in December 2007, demand deposits were approximately USD 70 billion, time deposits USD 166 billion, and savings deposits USD 140 billion. As of November 2007, the inter-bank deposits of leasing companies at the banks were equivalent to nearly USD 90 billion. The reserve requirements will increase by five percent every two months beginning at five percent in May through January 2009 to 25 percent. The CB publicly said it expects credit liquidity to shrink by approximately USD 22.5 billion this year; a move designed to keep inflation near the CB's target of 4.5 percent for 2008. Leasing Loophole -------------- ¶3. (U) Leasing makes up approximately seven percent of total bank lending; however, many banks had been using their own leasing companies to raise capital via debentures which could be deposited at banks without any reserve requirements. Last year, leasing companies issued 70 percent of total debentures to banks in order for them to avoid reserve requirements via other financial instruments. [Note: Debentures are long-term debt instruments used by governments and large companies to obtain funds. End Note.] Personal credit expanded 32 percent last year and financial analysts continue to predict growth above 20 percent for 2008. The rapid growth in leasing has been fueled, in part, by the Brazilian legal regime which often finds for the debtor in cases of default. As a result, banks began utilizing leasing arrangements (in this case not to increase their own financing) as a way to limit their liability as leasing allows a bank to retain ownership of the asset and eliminates the lengthy process for repossession in the event of non-payment. Impact Likely Minor -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The CB's new requirements are unlikely to derail credit growth this year. The measure appears to roll back Brazil's credit expansion; however, other credit instruments will probably be used to replace some of what would have been financed via leasing companies. Indeed, Jose Pedro Fachada, the Executive Manager of Investor Relations at the CB (strictly protect) told Econoffs that the CB views the new requirement not as a monetary policy tool, but SAO PAULO 00000086 002 OF 002 rather as a signal to discourage banks from using leasing as a loophole to get around reserve requirements. He said the CB would have required cash reserves had it been a monetary policy decision. [Note: The CB has historically used reserve requirements as a monetary policy tool to control inflation when interest rate hikes were ineffective. End Note.] According to Credit Suisse, the volume of leasing operations rose by 86 percent last year in an effort to evade reserve requirements. Fachada said the CB had studied various measures designed to address this market imbalance with a goal of giving equal treatment to alternative funding sources. The CB judged that leasing was distorting the credit market, and that 2007 showed that banks were using leasing to get around reserve requirements, he added. Furthermore, the Senior Advisor to the CB Board Alexandre Pundek (strictly protect) noted that it was not a punitive measure that required banks to pass capital to the CB, but that banks could use other instruments as "collateral" and prevent any measurable loss to the credit market. Fachada noted that the measure would likely affect smaller banks that had been using leasing and not big banks that have access to other financial instruments to apply toward this requirement. Pundek acknowledged that banks will no longer have access to leasing as a cheap source of capital and that spreads would likely increase. He noted, however, that it was difficult to say by how much because the regulation would affect banks differently. He speculated that banks that had aggressively used leasing for self-financing might have to raise their rates by 0.5 percent, but underscored that it was impossible to predict given the unique financial situations for each bank. Less Cheap Lending -------------- ¶5. (U) The measure ultimately reins in banks' ability to secure cheaper capital. Financing firms are predicting a loss of approximately USD 17 billion in available credit from the financial system in 2008. Pundek explained to Econoff that each bank must deposit all proceeds from new leasing toward their reserve requirement until the bank reaches its 25 percent maximum reserve requirement for all existing leasing stock. The effective loss of credit could be smaller if banks can apply other financial instruments including federal bonds toward their reserves for leasing activities. The Director of the Brazilian Federation of Bank Associations (FEBRABAN) privately told Econ Specialist that he expects the new measure to have some negative impacts on the banking sector, including reduced credit growth and subdued profitability. Economic analysts, including Merrill Lynch economic analyst Alex Cancherini, told Econoff that determining the exact loss of funding at each of the banks would be difficult to assess. He noted that based on CB figures, Brazil's largest banks including Itau, Bradesco, and Unibanco have been the most prominent users of leasing to increase their financing. However, Brazilian banks are extremely well insulated, very highly capitalized, and due to record profits last year are uniquely positioned to deal with this tightening of credit. ¶6. (SBU) COMMENT: With the addition of reserve requirements for leasing, the CB reaffirmed that Brazil is removed from the U.S. credit crisis by closing out the remaining loophole in Brazil's credit system. The measure was an effort, in part, to highlight the strength of Brazil's financial system and to maintain business confidence. The measure also potentially deflates some of the credit expansion and decreases the likelihood of interest rate hikes while curbing inflationary pressure as well. If the survey completed earlier this year by the Brazilian bank Bradesco in which interest rate hikes are cited as the most important factor for investment decisions in Brazil is accurate, this move should signal to investors that Brazil remains a good investment location. END COMMENT. WHITE