RUSSIA, VENEZUELA AND GEORGIA

UNCLAS SAO PAULO 000550 SIPDIS STATE INR/R/MR; IIP/R/MR; WHA/PD DEPT PASS USTR USDOC 4322/MAC/OLAC/JAFEE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KMDR OPRC OIIP ETRD XM XR BR SUBJECT: RUSSIA, VENEZUELA AND GEORGIA Russia, Venezuela and Georgia Commentary by former Ambassador Rubens Barbosa in center-right O Estado de S. Paulo (10-14) says: "At first sight, it seems difficult to find common points between these three countries, unless you consider the geopolitics of oil and authoritarianism of their presidents...Putin has re-established order, reduced criminality and resumed an authoritarian tradition that, put on in different ways, was always present in Russia since Ivan, the Terrible, until now. The Russian people are now more at ease and calm with hope and self-esteem recovered and with proud perspective of the country once becoming again a super power, strengthened by the richness generated by the high prices of energy (gas and oil)... Neither the European Union, for strategic reasons derived from the oil and gas dependency from Russia, nor the U.S., with two military fronts in Afghanistan and Iraq, have conditions to impose effective sanctions against Russia in Georgia. The postponement of [Russia's] entrance in the WTO seems to be the only concrete negative consequence for Russia... The reconciliation of Moscow with Cuba, the eventual gas exploitation in Bolivia, the selling of arms and recent agreements to develop nuclear program and the oil and gas exploitation with Venezuela represent not only the affirmation of the Russian State power, but also political and commercial opportunities that Moscow is taking advantage of . The offer of a naval base made by Hugo Chavez to Russia will only be another exercise in rhetoric as opposed to a threat to the national security of the U.S...These facts represent more of an alert so that the political consequences of Venezuela's entrance in Mercosul are more closely examined by the [Brazilian] National Congress." White