SAO PAULO: WITH AN EYE TO 2010 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS,

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SAO PAULO 000338 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA/BSC, INR/IAA, INR/R/AA STATE PASS USTR FOR KATE DUCKWORTH NSC FOR TOMASULO TREASURY FOR JHOEK USDOC FOR 4332/ITA/MAC/WH/OLAC USDOC ALSO FOR 3134/USFCS/OIO DOL FOR ILAB SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD USAID FOR LAC/AA E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PINR BR SUBJECT: SAO PAULO: WITH AN EYE TO 2010 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS, GOVERNOR SERRA MAKES TACTICAL RETREAT; PSDB NOMINATES ALCKMIN FOR MAYOR REF: (A) SAO PAULO 285; (B) SAO PAULO 225; (C) SAO PAULO 142; (D) SAO PAULO 94; (E) BRASILIA 813 SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Avoiding open confrontation, the Social Democracy Party of Brazil (PSDB) held its municipal convention June 22 and nominated former Governor Geraldo Alckmin as its candidate for Mayor of Sao Paulo. In a deal reportedly brokered by Governor Jose Serra, the faction that favored supporting incumbent Mayor Gilberto Kassab (Democratic Party - DEM) decided at the last minute not to put forward an alternative ticket, leaving Alckmin unopposed. Governor Serra delivered a speech in support of Alckmin, who reciprocated with remarks implying he will support Serra for President in 2010. The last-minute agreement represents a tactical retreat by Serra, who wants to avoid an open schism in the PSDB as he prepares his presidential candidacy. But most of the leaders of the pro-Kassab group, including 10 of the 12 PSDB City Council members, were conspicuously absent from the convention, and even held their own parallel meeting. Whatever the outcome of this election, much work will be needed to heal the PSDB's internal rift and restore its important alliance with the DEMs. End Summary. ¶2. (U) The PSDB convention itself was an anti-climax at the end of a week of increasing tension and suspense. On June 14, the Democratic Party municipal convention, as expected, nominated Gilberto Kassab as the party's candidate for Mayor. A number of prominent "tucanos" (PSDB members) attended the DEM convention to advocate maintaining the PSDB-DEM alliance and nominating Kassab as their own candidate. Governor Serra was out of the country, but Lieutenant Governor Alberto Goldman (PSDB) attended in his stead and delivered an address expressing the hope that "the political alliance be converted immediately into an electoral alliance... [but] if not, we will be together in 90 days." The somewhat confused Goldman said at one point, "We are here to consolidate the candidacy of Geraldo Alckmin" when he meant Gilberto Kassab, and later referred to the Mayor as "Geraldo Kassab." For his part, Kassab expressed pride in the PSDB-DEM alliance and what the two parties have accomplished together in his administration, and added that if it were up to him, none of the many PSDB members holding positions in the municipal government would leave his administration. ¶3. (U) On June 17, a group including 11 PSDB City Council members submitted a slate with Kassab as the Mayoral candidate, along with the signatures of 424 delegates. (There were 1,344 voting delegates to the convention; 403 were needed to register the slate.) Alckmin supporters charged that delegates were being pressured to sign on to the Kassab ticket, and a potentially ugly situation developed with accusations of fraud and talk of possible legal challenges. Party leaders and representatives of both factions recognized that an open clash at the convention would be tantamount to political suicide, but nobody seemed to know how to avoid it. One Kassab/DEM supporter said he would back off "only if my commander orders me to," a reference to Governor Serra. Finally, on the evening before the convention, after meeting with national and state party leaders and senior advisors to Serra, the Kassab supporters agreed to desist. However, many of the dissidents boycotted the convention and held their own parallel gathering where they complained of Alckmin's "stubbornness" and talked of the "sacrifice" they had made in the name of a "larger objective" - Jose Serra's presidential candidacy. ¶4. (U) Per reftels, Governor Serra has made clear all along his preference for maintaining the PSDB's alliance with the DEMs by supporting the re-election of Kassab. In recent press interviews, however, he indicated he would support Alckmin if the party chose SAO PAULO 00000338 002 OF 003 him, while adding that he would continue to praise Kassab as appropriate, both for implementing Serra's programs after he departed the Mayor's office to run for Governor, and for offering innovations of his own in governing the city. Serra and Kassab appear together regularly at ribbon-cutting and other events involving state and local government. (For example, on June 27, the Governor and Mayor presided at a high-profile road opening while Alckmin, in contrast, was campaigning by himself at a trade fair.) But Serra evidently concluded that a direct challenge to Alckmin's candidacy, whether it succeeded or not (and it likely would not have),would carry too high a price. ¶5. (SBU) Though Serra pledged his support to Alckmin, it is hard to imagine him campaigning enthusiastically for him, and the most likely scenario is that he will keep some distance, not opposing him overtly and more than likely not working behind the scenes to undermine him. If Alckmin is elected Mayor, Serra will need his support for his 2010 presidential bid, or, at the very least, he will need not to have an enemy in the Mayor's office. It is no coincidence that one key supporter of Alckmin's candidacy within the national PSDB has been Minas Gerais Governor Aecio Neves, Serra's main rival for the party's presidential nomination. Serra and Alckmin worked reasonably well together in 2005-6 when their roles were reversed - Alckmin was Governor and Serra was Mayor - but that was before Alckmin defeated Serra for the PSDB's 2006 presidential nomination (and then went on to lose to Lula),and before Alckmin insisted on running for Mayor this year, disrupting Serra's plan to get Kassab re-elected and thereby continue his own strong presence and influence in Sao Paulo's City Hall. ¶6. (U) For his part, Mayor Kassab, though no doubt disappointed, expressed satisfaction that he has so many supporters within the PSDB. It now appears that at least some of the PSDB Assistant Mayors and Municipal Secretaries will remain in his administration while trying, in a very delicate balancing act, to avoid any overt political activity. Both the Kassab and Alckmin camps continue to talk about a "non-aggression pact" in which the two candidates compete without confronting or attacking each other and instead direct all their fire against Marta Suplicy and the Workers' Party (PT). (Note: On June 29, the PT formally nominated Suplicy, with Aldo Rebelo (Communist Party - PC do B) as her running mate. Following intervention by President Lula, the "Little Left Bloc" (see ref A) of Communist, Socialist (PSB),Democratic Labor (PDT), and two smaller parties decided to ally with Suplicy in Sao Paulo. End Note.) Leaders of both PSDB and DEM, and the candidates themselves, say they will unite in the second round against her, though they also recognize that there will be scars from the campaign. A new IBOPE poll shows Suplicy opening a small lead over Alckmin, 31 to 25 percent, with Kassab trailing at 13 percent. Alckmin, however, has by far the lowest rejection rate among the three main candidates, and would be the favorite in a second round against either of the other two. ¶7. (SBU) Comment: This is the second time Jose Serra has been outmaneuvered in his own party by Geraldo Alckmin. Despite his considerable political skills, Serra has an abrasive manner and style of doing business that sometimes turns potential allies into adversaries. The question remains whether his retreat from this confrontation and his abandonment of Kassab and the DEMs will be seen as a sign of weakness, possibly damaging his presidential prospects, or will put Alckmin and his supporters in his debt and even turn them into allies in 2010. End Comment. ¶8. (U) This cable was coordinated with and cleared by Embassy Brasilia. SAO PAULO 00000338 003 OF 003 WHITE