SAO PAULO: MARTA SUPLICY'S MAYORAL CANDIDACY COULD LEAD TO

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SAO PAULO 000285 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA/BSC, INR/IAA, INR/R/AA STATE PASS USTR FOR KATE DUCKWORTH NSC FOR TOMASULO TREASURY FOR JHOEK USDOC FOR 4332/ITA/MAC/WH/OLAC USDOC ALSO FOR 3134/USFCS/OIO DOL FOR ILAB SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD USAID FOR LAC/AA E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PINR BR SUBJECT: SAO PAULO: MARTA SUPLICY'S MAYORAL CANDIDACY COULD LEAD TO 2010 PRESIDENTIAL BID REF: (A) Sao Paulo 225; (B) Sao Paulo 142; (C) Sao Paulo 94 (D) Brasilia 674 SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY ¶1. (SBU) On June 4, Marta Suplicy confirmed her resignation as Minister of Tourism and her pre-candidacy as the Workers' Party (PT) candidate for Mayor of Sao Paulo. She and the PT are counting on three elements - President Lula's popularity, the strong economy, and division in opposition ranks - to propel them to victory in Sao Paulo's Mayoral election this year. Nationwide, the PT is counting on the municipal elections to strengthen its electoral base in preparation for electing a successor to Lula in 2010. If Suplicy is elected Mayor this year, she would greatly enhance her chances of becoming the PT candidate for President in 2010. End Summary. ¶2. (U) In addition to Suplicy, Minister of Social Security Luiz Marinho also resigned in order to run for Mayor of Sao Bernardo do Campo, an important industrial suburb of Sao Paulo that gave rise to President Lula's early career as a labor leader. ¶3. (SBU) Suplicy, who served as Sao Paulo Mayor from 2001 through 2004 but lost her re-election bid to Jose Serra of the rival Social Democracy Party of Brazil (PSDB),is in some ways a reluctant candidate. Most observers agree that she would have preferred to continue to serve in Lula's Cabinet and then run for Governor in ¶2010. However, she is far and away the strongest candidate the PT can muster in Sao Paulo's largest city, and the fractious party is largely united in its support for her candidacy. President Lula has also given her his blessing and is expected to campaign for her. Suplicy knows that a victory in Sao Paulo could propel her immediately onto the short list of possible PT presidential candidates in 2010. ¶4. (SBU) Required by law to resign her Ministry by June 5, four months before the election, in order to be a candidate, Suplicy waited until the last possible day. She has been enjoying the spectacle of the opposition Social Democracy Party of Brazil's (PSDB) internal split between supporters of former Governor Alckmin and those who would prefer to maintain the alliance with the Democratic Party (DEM) by supporting the re-election of incumbent Mayor Gilberto Kassab (ref B). But Suplicy is also facing problems of her own. To date, no party has agreed to enter into an alliance with the PT. By way of contrast, Kassab and the DEMs have already signed on two allies: the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party (PMDB - see ref A) and the Party of the Republic (PR). Though neither is very large or influential, both add to the amount of free television and radio advertising the Kassab ticket will be entitled to. The failure to get the support of the PMDB - an ally on the national level in President Lula's governing coalition - was a serious blow to Marta and the PT. Alckmin, for his part, has landed the Brazilian Labor Party (PTB) along with the tiny Social Christian Democratic Party (PSDC). ¶5. (SBU) There are three center-left parties that would be natural allies of Suplicy and the PT - the Communists (PC do B),the Socialists (PSB),and the Democratic Labor Party (PDT) - but each has a prospective candidate of its own. This "Bloquinho da Esquerda" (Little Left Bloc) has expressed the intention to unite behind a single candidate in Sao Paulo and several other cities with a view to breaking the PSDB-PT duopoly and paving the way for the likely 2010 presidential bid of federal deputy Ciro Gomes (PSB-CE). In early May, when former Sao Paulo Mayor Luiza Erundina (1989-92) told the press she had been offered the position of Marta Suplicy's running mate and was agreeable, she was quickly and publicly criticized by her own party's leadership and other members of the Bloquinho. The most likely "Bloquinho" candidate for Mayor is Aldo Rebelo (PC doB),a former political coordinator in Lula's government who later served (2005-06) as President of the Chamber of Deputies. Though unlikely even to break into double digits, a "Bloquinho" candidate like Rebelo would take votes away from Suplicy. The PT continues to negotiate with the center-left parties, but whether a deal can be struck remains unclear. ¶6. (SBU) Suplicy, who is running neck-and-neck in the polls with former Governor Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB),is poular among the poor and is likely to do well in he marginalized neighborhoods on the city's peripery. Her term as Mayor was notable for the consruction of Unified Educational Centers (CEUs),in hich schools doubled as neighborhood community cnters, and by a commitment to affordable public ransportation as exemplified by the "bilhete unico" allowing passengers to travel interchangeably onbuses and Metro for a single fare valid for fourhours. At the same time, she was accused duringher first term of contracting irregularities and financial mismanagement, and polls show her with a high rejection rate, due in part to a personal style that many perceive as arrogant. ¶7. (U) In an interview with leading-circulation daily Folha de Sao Paulo timed to coincide with her announcement, Suplicy said she wants to "reconquer the middle class that I lost in 2004." She stated that transportation would be her priority and promised a "war effort" and a "management shock" to address the city's chaotic traffic and its public transportation deficiencies. She criticized past and present (mostly PSDB) Governors for a subway system she described as 20 years behind the times. She also characterized the Mayoral performance of Jose Serra (who departed in 2006 to run for Governor) and incumbent Gilberto Kassab as "timid and mediocre" and blamed them for rolling back her achievements in office. ¶8. (SBU) Comment: The most likely scenario is that Suplicy will make it into the second round of the election with either Kassab or Alckmin as her opponent. What will happen then is impossible to say. Her candidacy has the potential to invigorate the PT base. PT state chairman Edinho Silva said the party will try to capitalize on Lula's popularity and the good will generated by economic stability and the government's commitment to social progress. "But in a local campaign, even a friendly President and federal government support will only take you so far," he noted. "What matters is whether voters believe the candidate will take care of the city and its people and deliver good services." Opponents will remind voters of Suplicy's faux pas - advising travelers victimized by the country's aviation chaos to "relax and enjoy" - but the PT has an efficient electoral machine in the city that should serve her well. If she can win back Sao Paulo, her party will have to consider whether she might make a stronger candidate than Dilma Rousseff (see ref D) - Lula's current favorite - in the 2010 presidential elections. End Comment. ¶9. (U) This cable was coordinated with and cleared by Embassy Brasilia. WHITE