PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ROUNDUP, APRIL 25, 2008

UNCLAS SANTO DOMINGO 000611 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA/CAR AND INR E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR PHUM ECON DR SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ROUNDUP, APRIL 25, 2008 REF: A. SANTO DOMINGO 0418 ¶B. SANTO DOMINGO 0180 ¶C. 06 SANTO DOMINGO 3521 (U) In this edition of the Roundup: ¶1. Participacion Ciudadana's Second Observation Report ¶2. Latest Poll Results ¶3. Fernandez Discusses Removing Term Limits ¶4. Small Party Candidate Alleges Donations by Narcotics Traffickers ¶1. (SBU) Participacion Ciudadana's Second Observation Report Participacion Ciudadana has published its "Second Electoral Observation Report," which is supported by a USAID grant. In the publication, the respected NGO: -- Discusses at-length the continuing controversy regarding the use of government spending to favor incumbent presidential candidate Leonel Fernandez, e.g. the ruling by the Central Elections Board (JCE) against the special government payroll ("Nomina CB") for party members who do not work (Ref A); -- States that the administration of the election is going well: "At present, there are no apparent important obstacles to a successful election in terms of organizational issues." -- Criticizes the lack of policy content: "The campaign is not complying with one of its fundamental functions, i.e. to serve as a space for proposing and debating policy proposals;" -- States that campaign-related violence has been minimal; and -- Notes the high level of spending on campaign advertisements in this developing country. ¶2. (SBU) Latest Poll Results An analysis in the newspaper "Clave" showed that the results of polls taken by major firms in the last weeks of the 1996, 2000, and 2004 elections were very similar to the final election results. This year, the results of four recent opinion polls by major firms show a lead of 15 to 24 percent (pct.) for the PLD's Leonel Fernandez over his main rival, the PRD's Miguel Vargas Maldonado: -- Gallup-Hoy: Fernandez 52 pct., Vargas 37 pct. -- Penn and Schoen: Fernandez 56 pct., 32 Vargas pct. -- Clave-NOXA-CIES: Fernandez 54 pct., Vargas 30 pct. -- Greenberg-Diario Libre: Fernandez 53 pct., Vargas 37 pct. In contrast, the firm CID-Latinoamerica, which has a well established reputation with the State Department, continues to show a much tighter race: Fernandez 40.6 pct., Vargas 39.0 pct. While it is unclear what is causing this divergence in poll data, the problem may be explained by differing numbers on undecided voters. Among likely voters, CID's data is closer to the other major polls: Fernandez 50 pct., Vargas 45 pct. (Ref B). (Note: Running third at 4-8 pct. is the PRSC's Amable Aristy Castro who, in the event of a second round of voting, will be courted by both the PLD and PRD for his endorsement.) ¶3. (SBU) Fernandez Discusses Removing Term Limits President Fernandez was recently asked by the press whether he would propose a constitutional amendment to permit him to run for a third consecutive term (fourth in total) in 2012. Fernandez's reply certainly did not rule out such a move: "I don't know if I will even still be alive. However, there are times when circumstances cause events that were not foreseen. In Colombia, there are those who are suggesting the possibility of changing the constitution so that Uribe continues in power until the war with the guerillas is resolved. (President Clinton was young when he left office.) That was a human resource that the United States lost. If Bill Clinton had run again, he certainly would have won." Comment: The talk around town is that Fernandez will indeed seek to remove term limits, as part of the broader constitutional reform effort that he initiated in late-2006 (Ref C). The practice of presidential re-election is controversial here, even for the one consecutive term permitted since 2002, given concerns regarding the use of government spending to favor the incumbent candidate. ¶4. (U) Small Party Candidate Alleges Donations by Narcotics Traffickers Trajano Santana, the presidential candidate for the small Revolutionary Independent Party, recently alleged that narcotics traffickers "invest" in candidates in return for assistance in avoiding prosecution. Santana said, "Here there is a significant number of criminals participating in the political process in order to sustain a model of impunity." Reacting to reports of the candidate's statements, the Presidents of the JCE and drug czar's office requested that Santana present them with proof of his allegation. The head of the JCE also noted that Santana's charge shows the importance of passing a new political party law, since the current statute does not require that campaign contributions be reported. (U) This report and additional information can be found on Embassy Santo Domingo's SIPRNET site, http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/santodomingo/ FANNIN