DR POLITICS - EX-PRSC STAR GUIDING FEW, FOR NOW

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SANTO DOMINGO 001950

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/CAR VDEPIRRO, WSMITH, BPREMONT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/18/2013
TAGS: PGOV KCOR PREL KJUS SNAR DR
SUBJECT: DR POLITICS - EX-PRSC STAR GUIDING FEW, FOR NOW

REF: A. SDO 1921

B. SDO 1513

C. SDO 1296


1. (C) Summary: Eduardo Estrella, a former presidential
candidate of the PRSC (Partido Reformista Social Cristiano)
offered Poloff a worrying assessment of the DR's political
and economic scene much like other politicians and officials
have done: Corruption is reaching self-destructive
proportions and a dissatisfied but fearful populace may one
day reach for a "Venezuelan" solution (ref A). Estrella, once
considered one of President Balaguer's best Secretaries of
Public Works, now toils in spare offices in the basement of a
Santo Domingo mall - circumstances emblematic, perhaps, of
his quixotic fight against corruption. Whether his tiny
"Movement of Dominicans for Change" will be able to tap into,
and constructively channel, Dominicans' latent anger has yet
to be seen. Creation of a broad-based, honest and
responsible opposition may be required before his efforts
matter much and a social explosion is averted. End Summary.


2. (SBU) On 12/16, Poloff met with Eduardo Estrella, a
Reformist Party (PRSC) presidential candidate in 2004, who
sought party's nomination in 2007 - campaigning on an
anti-corruption platform - but who lost out to Amable Aristy.
Upon being denied the PRSC's nomination, Estrella left and
Aristy led the party to a crushing defeat in the presidential
elections of May 2008. Since then, Estrella has formed the
"Movement of Dominicans for Change" which he is trying to
register as a political party. As of now, it is unclear time
whether his party will be registered and ready in time for
congressional elections planned for 2010.


3. (C) Surveying the political scene, Estrella began by
criticizing the Joint Electoral Commission (JCE) with which
he must, if possible, register his party. He indicated that
although he has begun the lengthy process of collecting the
80,000 signatures necessary to register, he believes that a
group of just five JCE judges really controls
decision-making. He implied that they will not look
favorably on his efforts to generate a new party. He then
discussed the "great dissatisfaction" of the Dominican people
with the current situation, particularly levels of corruption
that are choking the ability of people to follow through with
business initiatives. "OK, in Balaguer's time," he said
indignantly, "Somebody might get 10 percent (as a bribe or
kickback),but today from what I understand, it must be 30
percent." (Note: It is striking that this same point was
made by the man currently serving as PRSC Secretary General,
ref B. End Note)


4. (SBU) Saying he is a true friend of the United States,
Estrella next critiqued us for "inconsistency" when applying
pressure on the DR to uphold standards. Pointing the
perception that we had revoked and then reinstated Amable
Aristy's U.S. visa several years ago, he said, "That left a
bitter taste in our mouths." (Note: Clearly, Estrella is
bitter about having lost the nomination to Aristy. That
said, a corrupt Senator - clearly resembling Aristy in
physical appearance - was portrayed in the recent Dominican
movie "Ladrones a Domicilio" - "Robbers for Home Delivery."
Poloff attended one showing during which the Dominican
audience laughed openly when, at the end of the film, a
standard disclaimer appeared stating that the movie's
characters are fictional and that any resemblance is purely
coincidental. End Note.) Estrella added that - although a
nationalist of the Balaguer type - he wanted us to find ways
of weighing in more. For instance, he pointed to the
Ambassador's hard-hitting Thanksgiving speech about the need
to strengthen the rule of law and disagreed that it
constituted unacceptable "interference" as Senate President
Reinaldo Pared Perez had recently claimed.


5. (C) Estrella is resigned to continue a lonely struggle
against the "all for me" mentality he sees in current
Dominican politics, law enforcement, and society. He
acknowledged that a few people, like Supreme Court President
Subero Isa, are trying, but "what can they do against so
many?" Worse, Estrella is convinced that many leaders -
including President Fernandez - are smart enough to know that
the DR risks falling further behind due to underinvestment in
people, failure to address energy issues and rising crime,
"but they just don't care because they are making money."


6. (C) Comment: Once again a Dominican contact has evinced a
profound, if pessimistic, understanding of the challenges
facing the country (ref C). What is missing is some
mechanism whereby sincere Dominicans could overcome fear and
disunity to push back against real or imagined malignant

SANTO DOMI 00001950 002 OF 002


personalities. It may fall to Embassy Santo Domingo to
consider developing a strategy - Estrella suggested a series
of roundtable discussions - to weave together relatively
honest and distressed Dominican leaders into an effective
counter-force. End Comment.
FANNIN