PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN: DIVERGING POLLS PROMPT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SANTO DOMINGO 000180 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA/CAR, INR E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/04/2018 TAGS: PGOV PINR ECON DR SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN: DIVERGING POLLS PROMPT DISCUSSION REF: A. 07 SD 0233 (VARGAS WINS NOMINATION) ¶B. 07 SD 0329 (VARGAS' POLITICAL DIRECTOR) ¶C. 07 SD 0347 (PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES) ¶D. 07 SD 0348 (VARGAS FOREIGN POLICY) ¶E. 07 SD 0590 (FERNANDEZ TO RUN) ¶F. 07 SD 0685 (FERNANDEZ DEFENDS RE-ELECTION) ¶G. 07 SD 0846 (PLD DIVIDED) ¶H. 07 SD 1017 (VARGAS WITH DIPLOMATIC CORPS) ¶I. 07 SD 1078 (FERNANDEZ WINS PRIMARY) ¶J. 07 SD 1501 (ARISTY WINS PRIMARY) ¶K. 07 SD 1691 (CAMPAIGN TEAMS) ¶L. 07 SD 1710 (ESTRELLA LEAVES PRSC) ¶M. 07 SD 2143 (CENTRAL ELECTIONS BOARD) ¶N. 07 SD 2366 (ANALYTICAL OVERVIEW) ¶O. 07 SD 2568 (VARGAS WITH POLOFFS) ¶P. SD 0039 (RHETORIC HEATS UP) ¶Q. SD 0090 (VIEW FROM SANTIAGO) ¶R. SD 0124 (VARGAS WITH AMBASSADOR) ¶S. SD 0145 (FERNANDEZ POLICY SPEECH) Classified By: Roland W. Bullen, Charge d'Affaires, Reasons 1.4(b),(d) ¶1. (SBU) The results of four major presidential campaign opinion polls differ by as much as 20 percent (pct.),from a 16 pct. lead for the PLD's Leonel Fernandez to a 4 pct. lead for the PRD's Miguel Vargas Maldonado. The rival campaigns are busy debating the reliability of their favored polling firms, but differing data on undecided voters may explain the divergence. The numbers are as follows: -- Gallup-Hoy: Fernandez 47 pct., Vargas 31 pct., Undecided 7 pct. -- Penn and Schoen: Fernandez 50 pct., Vargas 35 pct., Undecided 4 pct. -- Clave-Noxia: Fernandez 42 pct., Vargas 30 pct., Undecided 11 pct. -- CID-Latinoamerica: Vargas 35 pct., Fernandez 31 pct., Undecided 26 pct. (Note: Running third at 8-17 pct. is the PRSC's Amable Aristy Castro who, in the event of a second round of voting, will be courted by both the PLD and PRD for his endorsement.) ¶2. (C) The four polls were taken in October and November, i.e. 6-7 months before the election, when the number of undecided voters is normally high. In the two polls where Fernandez has a commanding lead, the number of undecided voters is only 4-7 pct. This raises the suspicions of CID's pollster, Carlos Denton (PROTECT),who draws a close connection between undecideds and those who abstain. Denton told us, "I cannot believe that (the abstention rate) would be less than 20 pct. This means that Penn and Schoen and Gallup are doing something with the raw data." Neney Cabrera, Vargas' campaign manager, told POLOFF that he believes there is still a large number of undecideds. Cabrera believes the undecided vote consists largely of former Fernandez supporters (he received 57 pct. in the 2004 election) who are displeased with the President's administration, but have yet to embrace Vargas' candidacy. ¶3. (C) Allegations of payoffs -- many of which are well founded -- are very common in Dominican society and politics, and polling firms have not been spared. Vargas has been critical of the three polling firms that show him behind in the race, including Penn and Schoen. The PRD standard bearer told the press that his campaign's internal surveys, which show him leading, were taken "without manipulations and without the possibility that a manager or field worker were bought." The manager of Penn and Schoen's Dominican office, Bernardo Vega, countered that his firm worked for PRD candidates for 12 years and, until now, has never had its independence questioned by the party. ¶4. (SBU) Whether or not they influence pollsters, both the PLD and PRD have been quick to tout the surveys that show their candidate in the lead. The PRD took out a full-page advertisements lauding CID's reputation, while the PLD has twice paid a newspaper to reprint, as paid space, columns by Vega explaining Penn and Schoen's poll numbers. ¶5. (C) The views of Embassy contacts on the polling firms are mixed: -- CID-Latinoamerica (which has Vargas up 4 pct.): CID has a well established reputation with the State Department. CID's Denton states that his firm is more independent than others because, "We don't work for anybody in the DR and basically have been financing our surveys from payments by our subscribers outside the country." In contrast, in a meeting with POLOFF, Rosario Espinal, a noted local POLITICAL scientist, questioned CID's level of experience in working in the Dominican Republic. (Note: While we agree that CID is relatively new to this country, they have now been here for four years doing quarterly polls.) -- Penn and Schoen (Fernandez up 15 pct.): The Dominican office of this major international firm is managed by Bernardo Vega, a respected historian who has served in public office under both the PRD and PLD parties. Denton describes Penn and Schoen as "Fernandez's pollsters." -- Gallup-Hoy (Fernandez up 16 pct.): INR notes that the Dominican office of Gallup has a limited relationship with Gallup headquarters (akin to a franchise) and that the quality control of the international firm may not transfer to this local office. (Hoy is the local newspaper that published the poll). -- Clave-Noxia (Fernandez up 12 pct.): Clave Digital is major Dominican online newspaper with a good reputation. ¶6. (C) COMMENT: The concept of nonpartisanship is weak here. Our Dominican contacts speak frequently of vague "interests" and "pressures" of supposed great influence. So we do not discount for a moment the possibility that the independence of polling firms can be compromised. At the same time, each of these firms has strong business incentives to maintain a clean reputation. Most observers here believe that Fernandez is currently leading Vargas. How big that lead is is more difficult to determine. Subsequent polls, including two likely surveys by CID, should shed light on the debate in the final three and a half months of the campaign. A final point, and one that should be worrisome to Vargas supporters, is that none of the polls show the PRD candidate with more than 35 pct. -- the same level of support that PRD incumbent Mejia polled in his 2004 loss to Fernandez. (U) This report and additional information can be found on Embassy Santo Domingo's SIPRNET site, http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/santodomingo/ BULLEN