CHILE'S MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS: WHO IS LIKELY TO WIN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SANTIAGO 000950 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL CI SUBJECT: CHILE'S MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS: WHO IS LIKELY TO WIN AND WHY IT MATTERS REF: A. SANTIAGO 581 ¶B. SANTIAGO 894 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: On Sunday, October 26, voters across Chile will head to the polls to elect mayors and city council members. These nationwide local elections come just a year before the Chilean presidential election and are widely seen as a bellwether of the strength of political parties and presidential candidates. The ruling center-left Concertacion coalition is widely expected to emerge victorious in the city council and mayoral vote, but Alianza will likely improve on their performance in 2004. Small gains by Alianza are expected, but both sides are playing a lowered expectations game. A substantial shift in either direction will generate significant media buzz and would be a boost to conservative hopes for a strong showing in next year's presidential and congressional elections. End Summary. Alianza to Improve on 2004 Performance, But by How Much? -------------- -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Analysts from the right and left agree that in the most important measure of electoral success--the percentage of city council votes received by each coalition--Alianza will improve on their 2004 performance but will still receive fewer votes than the two Concertacion lists. (Note: See Ref A for a discussion of Concertacion's divided election lists this year. End Note.) The key question is how much Alianza will be able to narrow the gap when compared to their dismal performance in the 2004 municipal election, when they emerged 10 percentage points behind Concertacion (38 percent vs. 48 percent). ¶3. (SBU) Pundits from the left privately paint an optimistic scenario where Concertacion sees minimal losses. In conversations with Poloff Oct. 21 and 22, progressive think tank director Maria de los Angeles Fernandez predicted a minimum of eight points between Concertacion and Alianza, while Socialist academic and commentator Alfredo Joignant foresaw a seven or eight point lead by Concertacion. Both analysts say Concertacion's success rests largely on whether Party for Democracy (PPD) leader Pepe Auth's gamble in withdrawing from the larger Concertacion coalition to run a separate list for the PPD and Social Radicals (PRSD) will draw in more voters as he predicted (see Ref B). ¶4. (SBU) Meanwhile, on the right, analysts expect more substantial gains for the conservative Alianza coalition. Jose Miguel Izquierdo of the National Renewal-affiliated think tank Instituto Libertad told Poloff Oct. 17 a resurgence of small parties, a decline in Concertacion popularity, and a stronger, more united right will translate into just a three or four point gap between Alianza and Concertacion. Ena von Baer of the independent, conservative Libertad y Desarrollo institute was more cautious about specific numbers, but also believes the gap between the two parties will narrow considerably. Alianza Presidential candidate Sebastian Pinera told the Ambassador on October 27 that he expected a five point Concertacion victory. ¶5. (SBU) In public, politicians from both sides seem to have learned from Alianza's disastrous 2004 experience of predicting great gains only to face a very disappointing reality on election day. Alianza politicians are publicly downplaying expectations. Christian Democrat party president (and presidential contender) Soledad Alvear has set the bar for her own party rather low, promising only a 16% share of the city council votes compared to 21% in 2004. Who Cares About Local Elections Anyway? -------------- ¶6. (SBU) From an outside perspective, the buzz about this weekend's municipal elections might seem to be much ado about nothing. However, in Chilean national politics, municipal elections matter. These local elections, held simultaneously across the country just a year before presidential and congressional elections, are seen as a referendum on the performance of Chile's political parties. Conservative analyst von Baer believes Alianza's overconfidence in 2004 doomed presidential contender Joaquin Lavin. Lavin had been leading in the polls until the municipal elections, when his party's disappointing performance caused his popularity to dive while the percentage of voters who wanted to see Bachelet elected doubled during the following year. Von Baer was careful to caution she doesn't think this election will have such a stark effect, but it will certainly set the stage in an important way for presidential campaigns. In addition, the elections have been "presidentialized" this year with SANTIAGO 00000950 002 OF 002 presidential contenders campaigning for local candidates and often appearing beside them in campaign posters, further increasing their relevance to presidential politics. ¶7. (SBU) Controlling local politics can also be very helpful in ensuring presidential candidates get favorable attention in the upcoming election year. Serving as "allies in the streets" (in the words of Instituto Libertad analyst Jose Miguel Izquierdo),mayors can direct social spending in ways likely to generate support for their party, invite presidential nominees to local events, and control access to billboards and signs along public streets. ¶8. (SBU) Finally, municipal election results are also important and late-breaking inputs into decisions within parties and coalitions about who to nominate for president and how to divide power (and congressional candidates) among different parties in each coalition. Within the center-left Concertacion coalition, the Christian Democrats are widely expected to garner a significantly reduced share of city council votes, likely translating into fewer congressional candidates and potentially creating an obstacle in Soledad Alvear's presidential quest. On the other hand, if Pepe Auth's two list bet pays off, the PPD could emerge as a much stronger force within Concertacion. The Social Democrats (PRSD),riding on PPD's coattails as their partners on the divided Concertacion list, may also benefit. Meanwhile, Alfredo Joignant has predicted that National Renewal (RN) will pull ahead of the Democratic Union (UDI),requiring adjustments in congressional candidates allocated within Alianza. ¶9. (SBU) COMMENT: Chile's municipal elections provide an important, if imperfect, glimpse into the mood of the voters just one year from the country's presidential and congressional elections. In addition to the obvious impact on local governance, the results will help shape party decisions about presidential and congressional nominees. With the conservative Alianza coalition widely expected to improve on their 2004 performance--but not overtake Concertacion--the margin of Concertacion's advantage takes on outsized importance. Also key will be how the respective coalitions perform in the so-called "emblematic" races, the high-profile mayoralities in Santiago and other major cities. An only slight narrowing of Alianza's 10-point gap with Concertacion could confirm that Concertacion is suffering only a bit of unsurprising voter fatigue and can reasonably expect to maintain its hold on power in 2009. However, a sharper narrowing of Concertacion's lead would likely get significant press attention and be seen as a strongly negative assessment of the center-left coalition. END COMMENT. SIMONS