UNASUR'S ROAD AHEAD AFTER EMERGENCY BOLIVIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SANTIAGO 000852

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/17/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV SOCI MARR BL CI
SUBJECT: UNASUR'S ROAD AHEAD AFTER EMERGENCY BOLIVIA
SUMMIT; KIRCHNER LIKELY UNASUR LEADER

REF: A. SANTIAGO 851

B. SANTIAGO 846

Classified By: Acting E/Pol Chief Tim Stater for reason 1.4 (b).


1. (C) Summary. A senior Chilean diplomat characterized
UNASUR's meeting this week to deal with the crisis in Bolivia
as an important early victory for the new organization and
for its President Pro-Tempore, Chile. According to MFA
Planning Subdirector Patricio Pradel, UNASUR is still
defining the details of its mission to Bolivia, including who
will join the mission and what role the OAS will play. A
previously-scheduled September 24 UNASUR meeting in New York
will provide an opportunity for heads of state to revisit the
situation and deal with other UNASUR topics. Former
Argentine President Nestor Kirchner may emerge as UNASUR
Secretary General. End Summary.

UNASUR Meeting A Victory
--------------


2. (C) Hosting a successful UNASUR meeting about the
Bolivian crisis was a substantial accomplishment both for
Chile as President Pro-Tempore and for UNASUR as a new
organization, MFA Planning Subdirector Patricio Pradel told
Poloff September 17. Chile and other UNASUR participants
were unsure how well the new body could handle such a tense
and divisive issue, but everyone walked away from the meeting
pleased with the strength of the new organization. Broad and
very high-level participation from member states was an early
victory, and the ability to achieve consensus on a
declaration consolidated this promising start.


3. (C) While he was sparse on details, Pradel noted that
avoiding negative references to the U.S. in the declaration
was not as difficult as some press reports indicated.
Rather, the challenge was understanding exactly what Bolivia
wanted, he said. In fact, it still is not completely clear
how the Bolivians are hoping to emerge from this situation,
and even the Bolivians themselves may not know. Bolivia is
committed to a "path of dialogue" for now, although the
situation remains dangerous, Pradel warned. (Note: In a
separate conversation with Emboffs September 16, Francisco
del Campo, Counselor in the MFA's North American Affairs
office, remarked that together Brazil and Chile had managed
to "control the exalted ones"--a sarcastic reference to
Chavez and Morales. End Note.)

Next Steps for UNASUR on the Bolivian Crisis
--------------


4. (SBU) UNASUR nations are still working on the details for
next steps, particularly the UNASUR mission to Bolivia.
According to Pradel, each UNASUR member nation will send one
delegate to be part of the mission, but it is not yet clear
who these members will be. Chile's representative, former UN
Permanent Representative and Ambassador to Argentina Juan
Gabriel Valdes, will serve as the mission's coordinator. The
first meeting will be Saturday, September 20 in La Paz.


5. (SBU) Pradel confirmed that the OAS will also play a role
in UNASUR's handling of the crisis, but said that there has
not yet been substantial discussion about the role that the
OAS will play.


6. (C) A previously scheduled UNASUR Working Group meeting
on September 24 in New York will be another opportunity for
high-level dialogue about Bolivia. Pradel said that many
heads of state--including Lula, Uribe, Correa, Morales,
Kirchner, and possibly President Bharrat Jagdeo of
Guyana--are likely to attend. The originally planned
discussion topics--ratification of the UNASUR treaty,
selection of a secretary-general, and possible environmental
and technological initiatives that the organization may try
to advance at the UN General Assembly--will still be covered
as time permits.

UNASUR's Likely First Secretary General: Nestor Kirchner
-------------- --------------

7. (C) In a significant change from earlier speculation,
Patricio Pradel told us that he believes former Argentine
President Nestor Kirchner is likely to be selected as
UNASUR's first Secretary General. Bolivian trade negotiator
Pablo Solon, who served as UNASUR's Secretary General
Pro-Tempore last year, was originally the leading contender.
However, some observers have said that Solon does not have
the experience or gravitas desirable for the organization's
first leader, and others have said that he is too close to
the UNASUR bureaucracy to effectively manage it. Press
reports have said that Peru, Ecuador, and Colombia opposed
the selection of Solon. Ecuadorian President Correa publicly
criticized Solon and expressed opposition to his candidacy.
In contrast, Kirchner is a popular former president with no
major detractors among UNASUR nations, Pradel said. The MFA
is not aware of any specific themes or goals Kirchner would
promote if he were selected.

Chile's Agenda as UNASUR President Pro-Tempore
-------------- -


8. (C) Pradel indicated that Chile's primary goals as
President Pro-Tempore of the South American organization are
to strengthen the group and tackle substantive regional
issues. Before its term ends in May 2009, Chile hopes that
nine potential UNASUR states will ratify the UNASUR treaty,
formally establishing the organization. Successfully
selecting a Secretary General is another major goal, Pradel
said. In terms of substantive issues, Chile hopes to focus
on two areas: defense, via the South American Defense
Council (SADC); and social issues such as poverty, health,
education, culture, and gender. UNASUR also needs to be able
to respond to regional developments, Pradel said, such as
when it dispatched observers to the Bolivian referendum.
Themes for the annual UNASUR Summit, which will take place in
Vina del Mar, Chile on October 21 and 22, have not yet been
decided.

Comment
--------------


9. (C) UNASUR's handling of the Bolivian crisis bolstered
this new organization, but a perilous road lays ahead. Chile
once again proved its mettle as a moderating and conciliatory
force in the region, and as a country that thinks for itself
but will not hesitate to defend U.S. interests against
ideologically-motivated or spurious attacks. As Foreign
Minister Foxley stated publicly on September 16, "If anyone
has any doubts, let me be clear: we have very good relations
with the U.S. government. We don't have any complexes, we
want all countries to understand this well."


10. (C) Given Venezuelan and Bolivian concerns about working
with the OAS, the selection of Juan Gabriel Valdes as Chile's
representative to the UNASUR mission is a smart choice.
Valdes has substantial foreign policy experience as a former
foreign minister, an ambassador, and leader of the UN mission
in Haiti. Valdes knows OAS Secretary General Jose Miguel
Insulza well and, like Insulza, is a member of Chile's
Socialist party.
SIMONS