INSULZA OPTIMISTIC ABOUT ELECTORAL PROSPECTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SANTIAGO 000654 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/14/2018 TAGS: PGOV CI SUBJECT: INSULZA OPTIMISTIC ABOUT ELECTORAL PROSPECTS Classified By: Pol/Econ Counselor Juan Alsace for reason 1.4 (b). ¶1. (U) OAS General Secretary Jose Miguel Insulza spoke briefly with the Ambassador at the latter's July 10 reception for the OAS Sustainable Energy Conference. The conversation, which focused on Insulza's electoral prospects, took place in the context of a poll released earlier that day showing National Renewal candidate Sebastian Pinera leading all other potential presidential candidates, including Insulza. Pinera received the support of 32 percent of those surveyed, while former President Ricardo Lagos garnered 19 percent and Insulza received support from 11 percent of those surveyed. Independent Democrat Union (UDI) politician Joaquin Lavin, Christian Democrat president Soledad Alvear, and former President Eduardo Frei garnered 9 percent, 8 percent, and 6 percent support respectively. For the first time, a plurality of voters indicated that they would vote for Pinera ahead of a variety of Concertacion candidates in a run-off scenario. ¶2. (C) Insulza made the following points to the Ambassador about his electoral prospects: --Insulza remains optimistic about his chances of being selected as the Socialist Party candidate. --After meeting with former President Ricardo Lagos this week, he believes that Lagos will only enter the race if he is "begged" to do so by Concertacion leadership and if polls show him as the only viable candidate. --Insulza was encouraged by recent poll results which show him only 8 points behind Lagos. Given that Lagos has made a number of domestic appearances and Insulza has spent little time in the country, Insulza believes that this is a strong showing. --Insulza also believes that the Christian Democrats are essentially out of the race, with recent poll results showing that they have no viable candidates. --While opposition politician Sebastian Pinera has a comfortable lead in the polls today, his position is still very fragile. Insulza believes that he is vulnerable to a strong Concertacion candidate, but that it will be critical that Concertacion go forward with just one candidate. ¶3. (C) Comment: While the Sustainable Energy Conference in Renaca was the ostensible reason for his visit to Chile, Insulza has clearly been making the political rounds during his week-long visit, meeting with political parties and President Bachelet. He clearly and very badly has the presidential itch. And while he put the best possible face on his poll numbers, the fact remains that he is Concertacion's second choice behind Lagos, who continues to maintain a so far successful "Zeus in the clouds" stance. End Comment. URBAN