INSULZA OPTIMISTIC ABOUT ELECTORAL PROSPECTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SANTIAGO 000654

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/14/2018
TAGS: PGOV CI
SUBJECT: INSULZA OPTIMISTIC ABOUT ELECTORAL PROSPECTS

Classified By: Pol/Econ Counselor Juan Alsace for reason 1.4 (b).


1. (U) OAS General Secretary Jose Miguel Insulza spoke
briefly with the Ambassador at the latter's July 10 reception
for the OAS Sustainable Energy Conference. The conversation,
which focused on Insulza's electoral prospects, took place in
the context of a poll released earlier that day showing
National Renewal candidate Sebastian Pinera leading all other
potential presidential candidates, including Insulza. Pinera
received the support of 32 percent of those surveyed, while
former President Ricardo Lagos garnered 19 percent and
Insulza received support from 11 percent of those surveyed.
Independent Democrat Union (UDI) politician Joaquin Lavin,
Christian Democrat president Soledad Alvear, and former
President Eduardo Frei garnered 9 percent, 8 percent, and 6
percent support respectively. For the first time, a
plurality of voters indicated that they would vote for Pinera
ahead of a variety of Concertacion candidates in a run-off
scenario.


2. (C) Insulza made the following points to the Ambassador
about his electoral prospects:

--Insulza remains optimistic about his chances of being
selected as the Socialist Party candidate.

--After meeting with former President Ricardo Lagos this
week, he believes that Lagos will only enter the race if he
is "begged" to do so by Concertacion leadership and if polls
show him as the only viable candidate.

--Insulza was encouraged by recent poll results which show
him only 8 points behind Lagos. Given that Lagos has made a
number of domestic appearances and Insulza has spent little
time in the country, Insulza believes that this is a strong
showing.

--Insulza also believes that the Christian Democrats are
essentially out of the race, with recent poll results showing
that they have no viable candidates.

--While opposition politician Sebastian Pinera has a
comfortable lead in the polls today, his position is still
very fragile. Insulza believes that he is vulnerable to a
strong Concertacion candidate, but that it will be critical
that Concertacion go forward with just one candidate.


3. (C) Comment: While the Sustainable Energy Conference in
Renaca was the ostensible reason for his visit to Chile,
Insulza has clearly been making the political rounds during
his week-long visit, meeting with political parties and
President Bachelet. He clearly and very badly has the
presidential itch. And while he put the best possible face
on his poll numbers, the fact remains that he is
Concertacion's second choice behind Lagos, who continues to
maintain a so far successful "Zeus in the clouds" stance.
End Comment.
URBAN