PROMINENT OPPOSITION SENATOR PREDICTS A CROWDED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SANTIAGO 000263

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/17/2018
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL CI
SUBJECT: PROMINENT OPPOSITION SENATOR PREDICTS A CROWDED
FIELD OF ASPIRANTS SEEKING TO SUCCEED BACHELET

REF: SANTIAGO 249

Classified By: E/POL Counselor Juan A. Alsace, for reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d).

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Summary
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1. (C) Senator Hernan Larrian of the UDI, the more
doctrinaire of Chile's two center-right parties, told the
Ambassador that the opposition to the right of the governing
Concertacion center-left coalition could field up to four
candidates in the 2009 presidential campaign, including two
nascent candidacies launched by disgruntled refugees from
Concertacion. With Concertacion itself likely to present two
candidates (one a Socialist, one a Christian Democrat) and
minor parties like the Communists also in the hunt, the race
to replace President Bachelet could be crowded and intense.
End summary.



2. (U) The Ambassador March 13 called on Senator Hernan
Larrian, President of the Union Democratica Independiente
(UDI),the more "hard-right" of the two parties making up the
Alianza center-right opposition (Renovacion Nacional (RN) is
the other). Larrain was joined by Senator Evelyn Mattei and
Parliamentary Deputy Rodrigo Alvarez, both on UDI's governing
board. E/Pol Counselor accompanied the Ambassador.

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We Like The U.S.
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3. (SBU) Larrain stressed UDI has had a long and friendly
relationship with the Embassy, agreeing on most policy
issues, especially during the past eight years, with an
administration in Washington ideologically in tune. While
"usually on the same side of the barricades," there had been
disagreements as on Iraq, although more often UDI supported
the U.S. Larrian noted he had backed the U.S.-Chile FTA,
even though he represented a rural, agricultural region. The
Ambassador replied he wanted to maintain close relationships
with all political parties, adding he had always admired the
Chilean economic model for its successes and willingness to
try new initiatives, as with its pension system.

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Who Doesn't Want to Be President?
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4. (C) Asked about Alianza'a prospects in 2009, Larrian noted
that Sebastian Pinera (RN's presidential candidate in 2005 -
reftel) was certainly the front running opposition option
"but he is RN, not UDI." He nonetheless continued, and
without a bit of irony, that the Alianza has done a good job
in uniting and in providing a credible alternative to
Concertacion. In the past, Larrian said, Alianza was
fractured; now it was Concertacion plagued by internal
frictions. UDI would put up a credible candidate in the 2009
presidential elections - perhaps Joaquin Lavin, who ran and
lost in 2005, running third to Bachelet and Pinera - but
would back Pinera if it came to it. (Comment: Larrian's
lack of enthusiasm over that prospect was nearly tangible.)
Larrian said UDI and the RN would be meeting shortly to
discuss strategy for the late 2008 municipal elections, which
would set the table for the 2009 presidential campaign. He
added that the parties had already decided on how to
apportion municipal slates.


5. (C) Larrain described the Concertacion situation as far
more complex. He believed that the Democracia Cristiano
(DC),the largest party within the governing coalition, would
demand the presidential candidate nod after two straight
Socialists (PS) at the head of the ticket (Lagos and
Bachelet),very likely DC President Soledad Alvear. The PS
will riposte that either former President Lagos or OAS SecGen
Insulza are both stronger candidates than Alvear (Comment:
True.),causing a rift with the DC running Alvear in the
first round. Joining her would be the PS candidate, Pinera,
Lavin, and then, possibly, two candidates representing
breakaway Concertacion factions, headed by Fernando Flores
and Adolfo Zaldivar. In addition to those six, the
Communists would certainly run their own candidate, as they
did in 2005 (although end up backing the eventual

Concertacion nominee).

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Comment
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6. (C) The scenario laid out by Larrian is possible, although
there is more than a year to go for both Concertacion and
Alianza to sort out their houses and test which way the wind
blows. By the time 2009 rolls around, however, we expect
that support will more probably coalesce around two or
possibly three presidential candidates with a reasonable shot
at winning. These include RN's Pinera, PS's Lagos or
Insulza, and DC's Alvear. It is clear that inter- and intra-
Concertacion party discipline is sorely lacking, a reflection
on Bachelet's own weak links to party politics. And
Larrian's lukewarm enthusiasm for Pinera underscores that
Alianza is not as united as he suggests. Be it three
candidates or seven, 2009 promises an entertaining campaign.
End comment.
SIMONS