ARENA FILLS STADIUM, BUT CROWD SUBDUED; NO VP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN SALVADOR 000854

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/14/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL ES
SUBJECT: ARENA FILLS STADIUM, BUT CROWD SUBDUED; NO VP
CANDIDATE YET

REF: 2007 SAN SALVADOR 2269

Classified By: The Ambassador, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Emboffs attended the July 13 ARENA
(conservative, pro-U.S.) political rally at Cutscatlan
Stadium, the same venue where the opposition FMLN staged
their November 11 rally. The overflow crowd was equal in size
to the FMLN event, but less enthusiastic than ARENA
Presidential candidate Rodrigo Avila might have hoped.
Avila, who appeared relaxed, performed well but made no
announcement regarding his running mate. Recent polling has
Avila some 14 points behind FMLN candidate Mauricio Funes
(with 23.2 and 37.5 percent, respectively),though voters who
are undecided, do not respond, and will not vote, still make
up 38.6 percent of respondents. The presidential election
will be held March 15, 2009. End Summary.

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Good Crowd, But Subdued
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2. (SBU) Emboffs attended the July 13 ARENA political rally
at the Cutscatlan Stadium in San Salvador. ARENA had been
building expectations for the rally for nearly a week and
bused in thousands of supporters from around the country.
Most departments and factions seemed well-represented; there
were reports, however, that approximately 20 buses of ARENA
supporters were detained in Usulutan due to a diesel spill.
President Saca attended the rally, but the former ARENA
presidents were noticeably absent.


3. (SBU) Like the November 11 FMLN rally, supporters were
turned away at the gates and were forced to listen from
outside the stadium or peer down from the hillside
overlooking the stadium. The crowd, while equal in size to
the crowd assembled by the FMLN in November, was less
enthusiastic than ARENA and Avila likely had expected and did
not have the &electricity8 shown by Funes and the FMLN
supporters. While the crowd did appear festive in person, it
seemed more subdued on the subsequent television coverage.

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Strong Delivery, But No Running Mate Yet
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4. (SBU) Contrary to some predictions, Avila did not name his
running mate at the rally. Avila appeared relaxed and
confident during his 30 minute speech which focused on the
future of El Salvador.

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Speech Highlights: Freedom and Growth; Not Class Warfare
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5. (SBU) Avila decried the FMLN,s politics of continued
confrontation, adding that the FMLN is still seeking &old
solutions8 to economic problems: nationalization,
expropriation, and the restriction of free speech. Avila
said that the country has achieved some reconciliation in the
post-war period, but that the future of the country was &in
play.8 Avila appealed to all Salvadorans to work together
and reject the class warfare espoused by the FMLN.


6. (SBU) Avila called for improved healthcare, complete with
increased access to medicine and improved infrastructure. He
also called for raising pensions, including providing a
&solidarity pension8 for those in need who currently
receive no monthly income. (Note: In an interview conducted
immediately after the speech, President Saca echoed Avila's
call by asking the Minister of Economy to study the
possibility of a pension increase. End note.) He proposed
increasing financial aid for university students and helping
job-seekers find employment. He also recognized the difficult
role of women in El Salvador and called for assistance for
those who work to support their families.


7. (SBU) Avila then turned to security and called for an El
Salvador where no one is above the law and where citizens
respect the law. He said El Salvador must be ready to face
the security challenges of the 21st century and the armed
forces must be equipped to meet the challenges of civil
defense.


8. (SBU) On the economic side, Avila called for pro-growth
policies that would encourage tourism, support the
agricultural sector, permit the construction of electricity
generating plants, and improve the country,s infrastructure.
He spoke of an El Salvador strong enough to protect the
environment by producing clean power that would protect the
water supply. He made an appeal to the supporters that had
been bused in from the countryside by pledging to bring

progress to the rural areas.


9. (SBU) Avila also pledged support to Salvadorans living
abroad. He said he was committed to building an economically
stronger El Salvador, so that Salvadorans would no longer
have to leave the country to seek better opportunities.


10. (SBU) Avila also pledged support for small enterprises,
including the formation of a &solidarity bank8 to provide
low-cost financing. He envisioned the construction of a
&port city8 at the soon-to-be-inaugurated port at La Union.
In an appeal to the working class, Avila called on the
government, employers, and workers to meet immediately and
agree upon a raise in the minimum wage.


11. (SBU) Wrapping up his speech, Avila returned to his theme
of a &just, strong, generous, and free8 El Salvador and
asserted that economic growth required freedom ) freedom of
speech, freedom of religion, and freedom of initiative. He
said that those who want to live in peace outnumber those who
seek to return to conflict and those who support terrorist
groups. We, he said, are the majority and in a democracy the
majority always wins. Avila concluded his speech with a
promise to reduce poverty and exclusion, to end corruption
and the abuse of consumers, and to provide greater
opportunity for all Salvadorans.


12. (C) Comment: ARENA's efforts to fill the stadium paid off
and the afternoon deluges common this time of year stayed in
check until after the event. Worries among ARENA officials
about Avila's ability to deliver a strong speech should be
diminished - he performed well, in fact better than many had
expected. The response from the over 50,000 ARENA supporters
in the stadium however, was underwhelming, with merely polite
applause at points during Avila's speech and very few moments
of exuberant support. Comparison with the November FMLN
event is inevitable, and reinforces the perception in El
Salvador that while the FMLN is energized to win, ARENA is
heading into the March 2009 presidential election still
reeling from its bruising internal nomination process and
with a candidate who has yet to energize the party faithful.
End Comment.

GLAZER