El SALVADOR 2007 CENSUS PUBLISHED, SHOWS 19% FEWER PEOPLE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SAN SALVADOR 000826 STATE PASS USAID/LAC STATE ALSO PASS USTR USDOC FOR 4332/ITA/MAC/WH/MSIEGELMAN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON SOCI ETRD EINV ES SUBJECT: El SALVADOR 2007 CENSUS PUBLISHED, SHOWS 19% FEWER PEOPLE ¶1. Summary. El Salvador's 2007 Census, published in May 2008, reduced the number of inhabitants of El Salvador by 19.2%, from previous projections of 7,104,999 to 5,744,113. This reduction in population increases per capita GDP from $2867.40 to $3547.21, raising El Salvador almost to an upper middle income country, and elevates the murder rate of El Salvador from 49.1 to 60.7 per 100,000 inhabitants. Census data also showed around 96 percent of all Salvadorans have at least one relative abroad and around 20 percent of households receive remittances. El Salvador also showed steady improvement in life expectancy and literacy rates, though those indicators remain slightly below average for Latin America. End Summary. New Census Data -------------- ¶2. The Government of El Salvador released its 2007 Census results on May 12, 2008. The 2007 Census decreases the number of inhabitants of El Salvador from previous projections of 7,104,999 to 5,744,113 people. Overall, the population increased by 12.2% compared to the previous census performed in 1992. El Salvador is supposed to conduct a census every ten years, but this latest census was postponed following the devastating 2001 earthquakes. The 2007 census was funded by United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA),the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB),and the United States Census Bureau. The results of the census can be downloaded at http://www.censos.gob.sv/. Differences from Projections -------------- ¶3. The census showed a 19.2% difference between the real data and the previous 2007 projections made based on the 1992 census. The largest reduction in population took place in the department (state) of San Salvador, including the capital. In San Salvador the number of inhabitants decreased from an estimated 2.3 million to only 1.6 million, a 31% reduction. The only department that showed an increase in populations is Cuscatlan, which showed 6.9% growth to 231,000. Even with the new figures, El Salvador remains the most densely populated country in continental America, with 273 persons per square kilometer. In the Americas, only Haiti and some Caribbean island states have a higher population density. ¶4. Per Capita Income: The reduction in the number of inhabitants automatically increases El Salvador's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita from $2867.40 to $3547.21, raising El Salvador almost to the position of an upper middle income country. (Note. According to the World Bank's 2007 classifications, "upper middle income" includes those countries with a Gross National Income (GNI) per capita between $3,706 and $11,455. Using preliminary 2007 figures for the World Bank's Atlas method of GNI, El Salvador's new GNI per capita would be $3,398). End Note.) ¶5. Murder Rates: The new population data also elevates the murder rates in the country. With 1992 census projections, the estimated homicide rate for 2007 was 49.1 per 100,000 inhabitants, but using the new population data this rate increases to 60.7 per 100,000 inhabitants. The most violent department is San Salvador, where the rate is 84.7 per 100,000 inhabitants, followed by Santa Ana at 74 per 1000,000 inhabitants. The department with the lowest homicide rate is Chalatenango, in the northern region of the country, at 17.1 per 100,000. Population Distribution & Characteristics -------------- ¶6. The largest department continues to be San Salvador, which comprises 27.3% of total population (1,567,156 people). The second largest department is La Libertad with 11.5%, followed by Santa Ana with 9.1%. Around half (48%) of the Salvadoran population lives in those three departments. The least populated departments are Morazan, San Vicente, and Cabanas with 3%, 2.8%, and 2.6% of total population respectively. San Salvador has the highest population density at 1,768 inhabitants per square kilometer. About 63% of the population lives in urban areas, while about 37% lives in rural areas. ¶7. According to the Census, 34% of the population is 15 years old or younger, 59.3% is between 15 and 64 years old, and 6.8% is 65 years old and older. Around 47.3% of the population is men and 52.7% are women. The share of women is even higher for the population 15 years of age and older, were they represent nearly 55 % of the total. This is attributed to two factors. First, a greater percentage of men migrate to the United State. Second, men have a higher death rate. SAN SALVAD 00000826 002 OF 003 Households Characteristics -------------- ¶8. The Census counted a total of 1,406,485 households in El Salvador. The national average of inhabitants per house is 4.2; however, 6.4% of households have eight or more persons living under the same roof. There are around 1,668,227 houses in the country, 18% of which are abandoned. These abandoned houses are concentrated in certain departments, including La Union, Chalatenango, San Miguel and La Paz, and are attributed to the migration of complete family groups. ¶9. According to household statistics, 88.4% of households have electricity and 77.6 percent have water service. This is up from 1992, when around 69.3% had electricity and only 46.7% had water service. Around 78% of households have a television and 49.5% have a stereo. Currently, about 63% of households and 68% percent of the population have a cell phone, while in 1992 only 10.8% of the population had a fixed phone line. Around 65% of the population uses propane gas for cooking, while only 30% use firewood for cooking. (Note. This is a reversal from the last census. Propane gas is subsidized by the government, which explains the dramatic shift in consumption habits. End note.) Education & Health -------------- ¶10. The illiteracy rate (for people older than 10 years old) has dropped from 23.9% in 1992 to 16% in 2007. The city of San Salvador had the lowest illiteracy rate at 7.9%, while the department of Morazan had the highest at 28.8%. Average schooling years (at the national level) have also increased from 6.1 years in 1992 to 7.9 years in 2007 (for people between 15 and 24 years old). ¶11. In last year's (FY 08) Millennium Challenge CC Scorecard, El Salvador did not pass the Health Expenditures, Primary Education Expenditures or Girls' Primary Education Completion measurements of the Investing in People indicator basket. The lower population should, however, help El Salvador improve on some of those Investing in People indicators, once the relevant reports are updated. ¶12. Life expectancy increased from 67.7 years in 1992 to 70.8 years in 2007. For men, life expectancy increased from 63 to 66 years, while for woman it grew from 72.7 to 75.5 years. The average number of children per woman decreased from 3.5 in 1992 to 2.4 in 2007. Infant mortality (number of deaths per one thousand per year) decreased from 40.9% in 1992 to 21.5% in 2007. Labor Force -------------- ¶13. The total labor force, classified as the working population over 16 years of age, is 1,727,154 people. It is distributed as follows: 26.3% in Retail, Hotels and Restaurants, about 17% in Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Mining, 16% in the manufacturing, 15% in other services, 7.6% in construction, and 1.3% in the financial sector. Remittances -------------- ¶14. Around 96% of all Salvadorans have at least one relative that lives abroad and around 20 percent of the households receive remittances. Remittance receipts vary by department. In La Union, around 39% percent of the households receive remittances. In Chalatenango and Cabanas practically a third of the households are remittances recipients, 31 percent and 30 percent respectively. Other departments in which the households that receive remittances are relatively high are San Miguel, Usulutan, Morazan and San Vicente. The lowest remittances recipient department is Cuscatlan were only 12.2 percent of the households receive remittances. Electoral Implications -------------- ¶15. Under the Salvadoran Constitution, the number of Legislative Assembly deputies per department has to be proportional to the population. The current distribution is based in the 1992 Census, as established in the Electoral Code. Under 2007 Census figures, San Salvador would lose two deputies, and the Ahuachapan and La Libertad departments would gain one deputy each. ¶16. In order to use the 2007 Census as a base, however, the Electoral Code has to be revised by the Legislative Assembly. The FMLN deputies have stated that they do not trust the results of the SAN SALVAD 00000826 003 OF 003 census and ARENA deputies have stated that they will only support Electoral Code reform if all 84 deputies approve. ¶17. The 2007 census also reveals some discrepancies between its figures and the figures of the electoral board. The census registers that only 60 percent of the population is over voting age (18) while the size of the electoral roster is equivalent to 71 percent of the population. Some municipalities now have more voters than residents while other municipalities have a very low number of voters. Comment -------------- ¶18. The release of the Census had been delayed several months, and the revised population figures create a number of potential difficulties for the Government of El Salvador (GOES). First, the substantial increase in per capita GDP is likely to adversely affect inflows of international aid, especially if El Salvador moves from a lower middle income country to an upper middle income country. Though, measurements based on per capita spending, such as for education and health programs, should benefit from the lower population numbers. Second, the revised, higher crime statistics may undercut the GOES's attempts to show both voters and international investors that it is addressing the public security problem. Third, the discrepancies with the electoral rolls suggest that the electoral board has done a poor job of maintaining voter lists and tracking migration, an issue sure to be raised by the loser if the 2009 election results are close. Finally, the lower population indicates far higher levels of cross-border migration than previously thought. Glazer