FRUSTRATION WITH AVILA'S FAILURE TO LAUNCH;

C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN SALVADOR 000774 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/18/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL ES SUBJECT: FRUSTRATION WITH AVILA'S FAILURE TO LAUNCH; PRIVATE CALLS FOR SACA TO CEDE THE LIMELIGHT Classified By: The Ambassador, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: On June 17 PolCouns spoke with Bobby Murray Meza, President of Agricola Industrial Salvadorena, S.A. (AGRISAL). Murray Meza expressed his disappointment with the lack of organization or strategy by the Avila campaign and noted that significant business interests have been approaching FMLN candidate Funes to lay the groundwork for future dealings if he wins. Murray Meza said that rumors persist that Avila could be replaced if his poll numbers do not improve by late summer, but was doubtful this would occur since Avila continues to have the support of Saca and his inner circle. He also expressed his frustration that the recent allegations of FMLN-FARC dealings have not hurt FMLN candidate Funes in the polls. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Murray Meza described his perception of drift and a lack of direction in the Avila campaign, compounded by the fact that, in his view, no one was in control of ARENA's legislative campaign. He said persistent rumors are still circulating that Avila would be replaced if his poll numbers do not improve dramatically by July, though he said it is not clear if those pursuing that idea could actually engineer Avila's replacement as Avila still seems to have the support of Saca and his inner circle. PolCouns asked when ARENA would start to panic at Avila's poll numbers, Murray Meza predicted that by August or September. Murray Meza also expressed surprise and frustration that no issues seemed to be damaging FMLN's candidate Mauricio Funes, including the allegations of recent FMLN-FARC conversations. ¶3. (C) President Saca, Murray Meza said, seems intent on running a media-oriented campaign for Avila's presidential bid (i.e., based primarily on an advertising campaign), similar to his own campaign for the 2003 elections. However, without a strong candidate, that approach will not be sufficient this time against this FMLN candidate. He said it seems like Saca is running his own re-election campaign, even though he is not on the ballot. ¶4. (C) Murray Meza said he could not completely discount the possibility that the former ARENA presidents might meet privately with President Saca to convince him to cede the limelight to Avila. Murray Meza said that if this was done publicly, it would be risky, but he implied that it might come to that. (Comment: Given the sometimes tense relationship between Saca and his immediate predecessors, a private intervention might not be sufficient or successful.) ¶5. (C) Murray Meza said there are a number of significant business interests in El Salvador talking to Funes and his advisors, laying the groundwork for working with a Funes government if he wins. Murray Meza said the private sector interests he knew were counseling "restraint" to Funes should he win. Asked if they believed Funes would exercise restraint in government, Murray Meza said those talking to Funes felt they could work with him. Murray Meza said one well known business family patriarch had set up such a meeting with Funes and called President Saca, explaining he wanted to give the President the courtesy of hearing the news directly, instead of through the grapevine. Saca, he said, was furious. Asked if he had considered such a meeting, Murray Meza said while his family had urged him to meet with Funes, he felt it was still early, though he indicated the time could come for such entreaties. Murray Meza said his preferred course of action remained to find an alternative third candidate that could split the left-of-center vote, which would throw the presidential elections to a second round in April 2009, and then negotiate between the candidates to ensure the FMLN did not win. Murray Meza joked that his name was now being bandied about as such a candidate, but it was something he dismissed out of hand. ¶6. (C) In contrast, Murray Meza said he had recently hosted a dinner for Avila with his family and other supporters, where he committed to support the Avila campaign and was attempting to drum up the support of others. Murray Meza expressed frustration at the lack of leadership and organization in the Avila campaign. "I'd love it if we could get Karl Rove" to come advise the Avila campaign, he said, noting that to be successful, it would also require a team of people around Avila to implement any campaign strategy that was developed. ¶7. (C) Separately, on June 18, Salvadoran Ambassador to the U.S. Rene Leon (on a three-month leave of absence in San Salvador to coordinate preparation of Avila's Plan of Government, or platform) told PolCouns Avila needed to move quickly to exercise and demonstrate leadership inside ARENA. Leon said he was especially concerned that on more than one occasion, most recently the announcement of a $0.04 tax on incoming calls from abroad, neither Avila nor his team was consulted by the Saca administration on a significant policy decision that will affect Avila's campaign, and in the case of the phone tax, reportedly learned of the move in the press. Leon believes Avila is prepared to tell Saca that Avila and his campaign team must be consulted as decisions are made and at the very least, advised before news leaks to the press. ¶8. (C) Comment: Most people, even in the FMLN agree that Murray Meza would have been a better candidate for ARENA than Avila, however that die has been cast. Murray Meza, while visibly frustrated, still believes Avila can win, but only if he kicks his campaign into high gear very soon and only if President Saca gives him space in the media. While Avila's campaign is still several steps behind Funes' (e.g., still no VP candidate and an incomplete staff),steps that could be taken now by the current administration to boost his candidacy remain undone. Thus far, however, Saca shows no signs of subordinating his own administration to Avila's campaign, even though many believe this could be decisive in March 2009. Sources close to Avila tell us that he is working hard to improve his oratory skills, including coaching/classes from Mexican and other campaign consultants. In a recent meeting with the diplomatic corp, Avila was accompanied by former President Cristiani's foreign minister, Oscar Santamaria, who is amply respected by the diplomatic corp. This suggests that Avila is seeking to pull together a good technical support group. Avila's presentation was also notably improved over his debate performance. WEBER