CONTINUED CONFUSED FMLN RESPONSE TO ALLEGED FARC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN SALVADOR 000576 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/16/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL ES CO PTER PARM SUBJECT: CONTINUED CONFUSED FMLN RESPONSE TO ALLEGED FARC TIES REF: SAN SALVADOR 560 Classified By: Charge D'Affaires Deborah Kennedy-Iraheta, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Recent developments in the FMLN-FARC saga continue to place the FMLN and its Presidential candidate, Mauricio Funes, on the defensive. Though the FMLN has begun to own up to its historical contacts with the FARC, it continues to diminish their significance, both publicly and privately. FMLN sources tell us that they don't feel this will have a significant negative impact on the campaign in the short term but admit they are worried that they could be damaged if the scandal continues to be front-page news. How the FMLN reacts will provide an important indication of how its party leadership will manage itself going forward and might provide an opportunity for the party to make a clean break between the past and the future that matches their public rhetoric. -------------- Denials, of a Sort -------------- ¶2. (U) Leaders of the Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front (FMLN) party continued to backpedal following INTERPOL's May 15 release of a report of its forensic analysis confirming that the data on the FARC laptops and computer hardware seized in a March 1 raid had not been altered or tampered with following the seizure. FMLN leaders have become less absolute in their public protestation than they were earlier in the week when they denied outright that there were recent or official ties with the FARC (reftel). On May 15, Medardo Gonzalez, the General Coordinator for the FMLN, admitted in the press that in the past the FMLN did have a relationship with the FARC, and described what he called "relations with legally constituted parties" and characterized the contacts with the FARC as being "the same way we had contacts with people from ARENA." Gonzalez did however deny that the FMLN had sought funds from the FARC during the 2004 election saying "they cannot prove it because it is completely false." -------------- Slow Reaction Within the FMLN -------------- ¶3. (C) Following up on Reftel conversation, FMLN Deputy and U.S. handler Hugo Martinez told Polcouns May 15 that he had told Medardo Gonzalez that he found the FMLN's May 14 press release (e-mailed to WHA/CEN) to be disappointing and "suave," suggesting it did not adequately address the allegations of FMLN-FARC ties and had simply continued FMLN denials of such ties. Martinez said that in a March 14 meeting of the FMLN's Campaign Command, the issue had been raised. Jose Luis Merino was in attendance, and acted as if nothing had happened. Martinez said all those present treated the subject "lightly" without dealing with the fundamental issue of whether or not interaction with the FARC was in the FMLN's interests. Martinez said Presidential Candidate Mauricio Funes appeared content to continue his public dismissal of the charges in the press and to continue attacking the credibility of the reports. -------------- Political Opponents Gain Momentum -------------- ¶4. (C) Martinez said he and others in the FMLN were increasingly concerned that this scandal would have legs, partly because ARENA leaders, in particular Minister of Public Security Rene Figueroa, have been measured in their public comments, suggesting they do not feel the need to fan the flames. Figueroa, he said, must be itching to make public statements emphasizing ties between the FMLN and FARC. ¶5. (U) Rodrigo Avila, the ARENA party candidate for President, told the media May 15 that he was not surprised by the INTERPOL report. He added that relations of any type with the FARC were dangerous and described the relationship between the FMLN and the FARC as "a perverse alliance." The other center-right parties that form ARENA's legislative coalition have also weighed in publicly on the issue with Orlando Arevalo of the PCN calling on FMLN Presidential candidate, Mauricio Funes, to "clarify" the FMLN's relationship with the FARC. Referencing Funes' earlier denials of any ties with the FARC, the PDC's Arturo Argumedo told reporters that he was very interested in the FMLN's reaction to the affirmation of the veracity of the documents seized by Colombia. -------------- Will This Damage the FMLN? When and How? -------------- ¶6. (C) Martinez said that in the short term he did not expect the issue to have a big impact on support for Funes or Avila in public opinion polls. The FMLN's hard-core supporters will not be moved by these allegations, he said, because they have been conditioned over the years to discount this sort of accusation from ARENA. Undecided and independent voters, however, will be more receptive to these allegations, and even if this does not change votes immediately, it will certainly sow doubts that could prove beneficial for ARENA later in the campaign. If the story continues and the allegations prove true, the effect on support for the FMLN among independent voters could be important. ¶7. (C) Salvador Samayoa, former FMLN member and peace accords signatory, told PolCouns May 15 that he anticipated very little impact from this story in the short term. Most Salvadoran voters who already support the FMLN, he said, will dismiss the charges based on the arguments of Funes and others that they are political fabrications. Sad, he said, but true -- many Salvadoran voters are fairly unsophisticated and willing to believe Funes' charge that Spanish daily El Pais is not a credible source. -------------- The FMLN's Next Step -------------- ¶8. (C) Martinez said the belief inside the FMLN -- that these allegations are simply more of the same from ARENA and will be discounted over time by voters -- appears to be driving the FMLN's passive reaction so far. PolCouns asked if the FMLN's leadership had considered the possible damage to the FMLN's credibility in the international arena if ties to a terrorist, criminal organization like the FARC were confirmed. Martinez said that while the party had not considered the issue in depth, he had the impression that many believed that talks and ties carried out by party officials without party sanction would be seen differently than party-sanctioned interaction. PolCouns suggested that distinction might be lost on outside observers. -------------- A Watershed Moment for the FMLN? -------------- ¶9. (C) Comment: Martinez' comments track with assessments we have heard privately from other observers of the FMLN, suggesting most in the party have yet to digest fully the magnitude of the Merino-FARC issue and that the FMLN has yet to address the issue in depth. While it is slightly encouraging that the FMLN is finally acknowledging that there were contacts with the FARC, ending its public stance of denying reality, the FMLN still has a difficult decision to make. It remains to be seen if the FMLN will heed calls from other Salvadoran political parties to break these ties. Merino remains a powerful actor within the FMLN; a decision to sideline him will not be taken lightly. However, the FMLN must choose between its efforts to present a more modern, reformed face internationally and its recent relationship with the FARC. End Comment. KENNEDY-IRAHETA