AVILA EXPECTS TOUGH CAMPAIGN; RUNNING MATE IN 2-3

C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN SALVADOR 000461

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/15/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL ES
SUBJECT: AVILA EXPECTS TOUGH CAMPAIGN; RUNNING MATE IN 2-3
MONTHS


Classified By: Charge D'Affaires Michael A. Butler, Reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d)


1. (C) Summary: ARENA presidential candidate Rodrigo Avila
told us April 9 that while he expected sufficient funding to
run his campaign, the FMLN might for the first time outspend
ARENA. Avila said he expected to choose a running mate
within two to three months, and said ARENA was leaning away
from a head-to-head debate with the FMLN's Funes. He said
the economy would be the most challenging issue for ARENA,
especially since there is little he or the party can do about
it before elections. End Summary.


2. (C) ARENA presidential candidate Rodrigo Avila discussed
his candidacy and campaign with PolCouns April 9 in his
recently occupied and only partially furnished headquarters
in San Salvador. Avila was upbeat, though clearly a bit
tired, and realistic about the long campaign that awaits.
Avila said the campaign was off to a good start and that he
would shortly be announcing Cesar Funes (COENA member and
Director of the national water utility ANDA) as his campaign
director. (Note: That announcement was floated in the
Salvadoran press April 11. Avila was formally presented as
ARENA's candidate on April 12.)


3. (C) Avila said his campaign was beginning to get its
fundraising operation in gear and that he was confident he
would have the funding needed to run a winning campaign.
However, he suggested that funding would not reach the levels
seen in previous ARENA presidential bids, and he speculated
that for the first time, the FMLN might outspend ARENA.
Before Avila arrived at his headquarters from a photo shoot,
his campaign treasurer, Jorge Guirola, echoed that sentiment,
telling PolCouns the campaign faced a challenge in convincing
workers and party officials that the fat times of previous
campaigns were over; austerity was the rule of the day.


4. (C) Avila said he had begun serious consideration of vice
presidential candidates and that several names had been
discussed. However, he said he was still focused primarily
on defining the candidate profile he was looking for and only
then would he seriously consider individual names. Avila
expects to name his running mate within two to three months,
at most. He said that while he had initially responded
positively to FMLN suggestions of a series of debates between
the presidential candidates, ARENA was now considering
whether or not a head-to-head debate would be beneficial to
Avila's candidacy, given Funes' 20-plus year experience as a
TV interviewer. Avila said he understood the FMLN had
already been working on a series of trick questions to be
planted with participating journalists, designed to place him
in a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" position, though
he didn't elaborate on specifics.


5. (C) Avila said that the slowing U.S. economy and the
consequent slowdown in El Salvador were probably the biggest
challenge he faced, with little he or the Saca government
could do in the short term. He said that, contrary to the
FMLN's claims, public security had improved during the last
year of his tenure as Director of the PNC (National Civilian
Police) but that these improvements (he specifically
mentioned a drop in the murder rate, robberies and assaults)
would be overshadowed by economic pressures.


6. (C) Avila said that recent changes to COENA - he recently
replaced President Antonio Saca as head of ARENA's Executive
Board - were meant to be gradual. Avila tied changes in
COENA to the challenges faced by his own campaign, i.e.,
trying to campaign on ARENA's achievements while offering the
prospect of needed changes. Avila said he was responsible
for the initial wave of changes in COENA and had
intentionally limited those changes, to avoid the appearance
of a sudden change of direction for ARENA. Avila said we
should expect a series of steady, gradual changes inside
ARENA as the campaign progresses, primarily aimed at
emphasizing the social component of Avila's candidacy.


7. (C) Luis Mario Rodriguez, one of the three finalists for
the ARENA nomination, was named Executive Director of COENA.
The other new COENA members are Oscar Santamaria, Director
of Minutes and Agreements; Milagro Navas, Municipal Director;
Ricardo Martinez, Vice President of Campaign; and Mariano
Turcios, Director of Transportation and Communication. Saca
joined former presidents Alfredo Christiani and Armando
Calderon Sol as a COENA honorary president and will retain
his right to vote on COENA decisions.


8. (C) Comment: In yet another of what promises to be a
constant stream of polling until presidential elections in
March 2009, Salvadoran daily El Diario de Hoy published the
results of an opinion poll by Borge and Associates April 15.
Respondents gave Funes a lead over Avila (26.8 percent versus
19.7 percent, respectively) when asked for whom they would
vote if elections were held tomorrow. However, "Don't
know/Didn't respond" garnered 51.5 percent, more than Avila
and Funes combined, suggesting that, while we should treat
these early polling numbers with skepticism, Funes will
present a serious challenge to Avila and ARENA.
BUTLER