NO SURPRISES AS AVILA WINS ARENA NOMINATION

UNCLAS SAN SALVADOR 000343 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL ES KDEM SUBJECT: NO SURPRISES AS AVILA WINS ARENA NOMINATION REF: A. SAN SALVADOR 101 ¶B. SAN SALVADOR 147 ¶C. SAN SALVADOR 238 ¶D. SAN SALVADOR 263 ¶1. (U) SUMMARY: On March 15, the National Republican Alliance Party (ARENA) selected Rodrigo Avila as its presidential candidate for the 2009 election. Avila's selection had been widely anticipated, but his landslide win did little to mollify critics who claimed that the process was less than fair. We expect ARENA to unite behind Avila against Mauricio Funes, the FMLN candidate, in what promises to be a hard-fought contest. End Summary. -------------- The Foregone Concluded -------------- ¶2. (U) As expected, the National Republican Alliance Party (ARENA) selected former National Civilian Police (PNC) Director Rodrigo Avila as its presidential candidate on March 15, beating out Ana Vilma de Escobar and Luis Mario Rodriguez. Party officials voted from all over the country, and when the votes were tallied by department, Avila walked away with all votes in six departments and the majority of votes in the other eight. Avila also won 6.5 of 8 national sector votes, including ARENA's women's caucus, with the rest going to Rodriguez. The consolidated vote totals were (of a total of 283) Avila 241.33, Rodriguez 41.33, and de Escobar .33. -------------- Not So Gently Into That Good Night -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Complaints about the selection process, rumblings of which have echoed for weeks (ref C),were still being heard on the eve of the vote. Some ARENA party members called for a secret vote to avoid party members being pressured into SIPDIS voting a certain way. (Note: ARENA's party rules specifically require a public vote with the aim of preventing candidate selection from occurring in smoke-filled back rooms. End Note.) ¶4. (SBU) In the end, both losing candidates, Vice-President Ana Vilma de Escobar and Luis Mario Rodriguez accepted the results and congratulated Avila. VP de Escobar did not go quietly, however, and after the vote publicly criticized what she said was manipulation of the process by Herbert Saca, a relative of the President and by ARENA's Departmental Director for San Salvador, Adolfo Torrez. Both had allegedly urged delegates not to vote for a woman; both denied the accusation. Whether or not these accusations are true, the 
Avila candidacy and the selection process have some hallmarks of manipulation and management by President Saca, and as a result, there is a good deal of resentment in some sectors of the party. -------------- FMLN Reaction is Muted -------------- ¶5. (U) The FMLN has already begun criticizing the Avila candidacy with what promises to be a central theme of the campaign, namely that an Avila presidency would simply be a continuation of Saca's administration and would be marked by the same "failed policies" of ARENA, especially on public security. FMLN Deputy Sigfredo Reyes was quoted as saying that the party did not see Avila as much of a threat to Funes' candidacy. Funes himself has yet to comment publicly on the Avila nomination. -------------- Avila Starts to Formulate his Message -------------- ¶6. (U) In an interview with La Prensa Grafica, Avila laid out some of the themes of his candidacy. In an attempt to begin the process of differentiating himself from President Saca, he said that it was important to bring new people into COENA and into the process of formulating a plan of government. He also talked about reinvigorating what he called the historic project of ARENA and focusing on the issues that are important to all Salvadorans. In response to a question about Mauricio Funes and his high favorables in recent polling, Avila admitted that "yes, he is a strong candidate, but I am also a very strong candidate." "Of course," he concluded, "this (campaign) is the greatest challenge of my life." ¶7. (U) Avila told the El Mundo newspaper that he discounted the allegation that El Salvador's large business interests did not support his campaign. He claimed that he received many votes from the business sector and that business interests would certainly unify behind him. Private sector participation is critical, he said, in helping solve El Salvador's social problems. The private sector is the largest generator of wealth, and entrepreneurs recognize that less poverty translates into more consumers. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶8. (SBU) The selection of Avila as the ARENA standard bearer surprised no one. It did not, however, come without controversy, and post will be watching to see just how quickly ARENA closes ranks behind Avila. Avila has already begun developing his message and attempting to counter the FMLN accusation that he represents the continuation of more of the same. Both the FMLN and ARENA are waiting to see how the public reacts now that the election is Avila versus Funes. The apparent failure of the smaller parties to present a viable candidate puts pressure on both candidates to focus their efforts on the very sizeable electoral "middle" that remains solidly uncommitted. End Comment. BUTLER