FRIEND OF MAURICIO: FUNES, FMLN GROWING CLOSER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN SALVADOR 001318 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/24/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL ES SUBJECT: FRIEND OF MAURICIO: FUNES, FMLN GROWING CLOSER Classified By: The Ambassador, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Gerardo Caceres, a "Friend of Mauricio," said the FMLN's choice of an outsider presidential candidate had changed and moderated the party more than expected. He said Funes has developed strong relationships with senior party leadership and that initial FMLN suspicions of the Friends of Mauricio had dissipated. Funes continues to insist he alone will name ministers to his government. Caceres said it is unlikely the FMLN will win a majority in January legislative elections, which he believes will alleviate fears of FMLN overreaching. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Gerardo Caceres, a member of the so-called "Friends of Mauricio" group, and owner of Puntual S.A. of Central America, a debt collection firm, described positive relations between the (left-wing) FMLN and its presidential candidate Mauricio Funes November 24. Caceres said the FMLN did not expect its choice of an outsider as presidential candidate would change the party as much as it had. The FMLN, he said, had simply bargained that a popular outsider would help win the election. Instead, Funes has been embraced by the party's rank and file, requiring accommodations and adjustments by both FMLN leadership and the candidate and, importantly, requiring the FMLN to moderate some long-held positions such as opposition to CAFTA-DR, dollarization, post-war amnesty, etc. Caceres said Funes has developed solid relationships with FMLN hard-liners, such as his running mate Salvador Sanchez Ceren, FMLN General Coordinator Medardo Gonzalez, PARLACEN Deputy and Political Commission member Jose Luis Merino, and others. ¶3. (C) Caceres recounted a recent conversation with Merino, whom he credited with the initial idea behind forming the Friends of Mauricio in order to create a broad support base for an outsider candidate. He said Merino told him his attitude towards the resulting Friends of Mauricio had grown from near rejection by the FMLN in the early days to mere suspicion, and now positive relations. Caceres said that he was impressed by the moderating influence Funes had exerted on the FMLN in the year since his candidacy was announced, and predicted that effect would be even more pronounced in government. ¶4. (C) Despite the increasingly fluid ties between candidate and party leadership, Caceres said Funes continues to insist he will make ministerial appointments in his government. He has told supporters he has neither received nor would accept a list of ministerial appointments from FMLN leadership. Caceres said he expects any ministerial nominations to take place very late in the campaign or, more likely, after the election because there are so many individuals in the party and among the Friends of Mauricio who will be disappointed when passed over. ¶5. (C) Looking to January 18 legislative elections, Caceres said he expected the FMLN to win from 34 to 38 (of 84) seats in the Legislative Assembly (it currently holds 34 seats), falling short of a majority. He sees (center-right, pro-U.S.) ARENA winning from 28 to 30 seats (it now holds 32 seats),with smaller parties splitting the rest. Caceres believes this will reassure voters who might otherwise fear FMLN control of both the legislative and executive branches. He added that the lack of a simple majority in the Assembly, much less the qualified majority needed to amend the constitution, should reassure those who fear the FMLN intends to dismantle Salvadoran institutions and the constitution. On the contrary, he said the main goal of a Funes administration and the FMLN would be to make El Salvador's institutions work better for all Salvadorans, not just a select few, and to end corruption in the GOES. ¶6. (C) Comment: Caceres has known Funes for more than twenty years and was an early supporter of his candidacy. His message of growing moderation and maturity inside the ranks of the FMLN is the equivalent of their "Talking Points Memo": the public message that is the key to convincing moderate voters that support for the FMLN in 2009 will bring change without the radicalism that is written into the FMLN's history. Funes' ability to impose his will on the FMLN is still very much an open question. GLAZER