FRIEND OF MAURICIO: FUNES, FMLN GROWING CLOSER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN SALVADOR 001318

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/24/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL ES
SUBJECT: FRIEND OF MAURICIO: FUNES, FMLN GROWING CLOSER

Classified By: The Ambassador, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Gerardo Caceres, a "Friend of Mauricio," said
the FMLN's choice of an outsider presidential candidate had
changed and moderated the party more than expected. He said
Funes has developed strong relationships with senior party
leadership and that initial FMLN suspicions of the Friends of
Mauricio had dissipated. Funes continues to insist he alone
will name ministers to his government. Caceres said it is
unlikely the FMLN will win a majority in January legislative
elections, which he believes will alleviate fears of FMLN
overreaching. End Summary.


2. (C) Gerardo Caceres, a member of the so-called "Friends of
Mauricio" group, and owner of Puntual S.A. of Central
America, a debt collection firm, described positive relations
between the (left-wing) FMLN and its presidential candidate
Mauricio Funes November 24. Caceres said the FMLN did not
expect its choice of an outsider as presidential candidate
would change the party as much as it had. The FMLN, he said,
had simply bargained that a popular outsider would help win
the election. Instead, Funes has been embraced by the
party's rank and file, requiring accommodations and
adjustments by both FMLN leadership and the candidate and,
importantly, requiring the FMLN to moderate some long-held
positions such as opposition to CAFTA-DR, dollarization,
post-war amnesty, etc. Caceres said Funes has developed
solid relationships with FMLN hard-liners, such as his
running mate Salvador Sanchez Ceren, FMLN General Coordinator
Medardo Gonzalez, PARLACEN Deputy and Political Commission
member Jose Luis Merino, and others.


3. (C) Caceres recounted a recent conversation with Merino,
whom he credited with the initial idea behind forming the
Friends of Mauricio in order to create a broad support base
for an outsider candidate. He said Merino told him his
attitude towards the resulting Friends of Mauricio had grown
from near rejection by the FMLN in the early days to mere
suspicion, and now positive relations. Caceres said that he
was impressed by the moderating influence Funes had exerted
on the FMLN in the year since his candidacy was announced,
and predicted that effect would be even more pronounced in
government.


4. (C) Despite the increasingly fluid ties between candidate
and party leadership, Caceres said Funes continues to insist
he will make ministerial appointments in his government. He
has told supporters he has neither received nor would accept
a list of ministerial appointments from FMLN leadership.
Caceres said he expects any ministerial nominations to take
place very late in the campaign or, more likely, after the
election because there are so many individuals in the party
and among the Friends of Mauricio who will be disappointed
when passed over.


5. (C) Looking to January 18 legislative elections, Caceres
said he expected the FMLN to win from 34 to 38 (of 84) seats
in the Legislative Assembly (it currently holds 34 seats),
falling short of a majority. He sees (center-right,
pro-U.S.) ARENA winning from 28 to 30 seats (it now holds 32
seats),with smaller parties splitting the rest. Caceres
believes this will reassure voters who might otherwise fear
FMLN control of both the legislative and executive branches.
He added that the lack of a simple majority in the Assembly,
much less the qualified majority needed to amend the
constitution, should reassure those who fear the FMLN intends
to dismantle Salvadoran institutions and the constitution.
On the contrary, he said the main goal of a Funes
administration and the FMLN would be to make El Salvador's
institutions work better for all Salvadorans, not just a
select few, and to end corruption in the GOES.


6. (C) Comment: Caceres has known Funes for more than twenty
years and was an early supporter of his candidacy. His
message of growing moderation and maturity inside the ranks
of the FMLN is the equivalent of their "Talking Points Memo":
the public message that is the key to convincing moderate
voters that support for the FMLN in 2009 will bring change
without the radicalism that is written into the FMLN's
history. Funes' ability to impose his will on the FMLN is
still very much an open question.

GLAZER