AMB LEON: VP CANDIDATE ZABLAH TO BOOST TICKET

C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN SALVADOR 001250 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL ES SUBJECT: AMB LEON: VP CANDIDATE ZABLAH TO BOOST TICKET Classified By: Robert I. Blau, CDA, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Rene Leon, Salvadoran Ambassador to the U.S. and platform coordinator for the Avila campaign told PolCouns October 30 that he believes that (center-right, pro-U.S.) ARENA presidential candidate Rodrigo Avila,s selection of former Minister of Economy Arturo Zablah as his vice presidential running mate will help ARENA win the March 15 presidential election. He expressed concern with what he described as plans by the (left-wing) FMLN to lay the groundwork for protests and possible violence in the event the FMLN loses the election. He said that ARENA,s internal tracking polls following the Zablah announcement place Avila about two points behind FMLN candidate Mauricio Funes. Leon said that he expected Avila,s platform would be complete by the end of November and that it would provide an added boost in the polls. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Rene Leon, Salvadoran Ambassador to the U.S. on a leave of absence to serve as platform coordinator for the Avila campaign told PolCouns October 30 he was pleased with Avila's choice of Arturo Zablah as his running mate and believes Zablah will help Avila win the March 15 presidential vote. Leon was critical of ARENA's legislative slate, which he assessed could have been better constructed. Given the risk of ARENA spending several years in opposition, he said, the party (and Avila) should have included more subject matter experts in defense, security, and fiscal policy. While the candidate slate does include several new faces, he said, it will neither generate excitement among voters nor leave ARENA well positioned in opposition. ¶3. (C) Leon was concerned with what he described as moves by the (left-wing) FMLN's presidential candidate Mauricio Funes to lay the groundwork for an election protest with incendiary rhetoric about fraud and hinting ARENA might try to steal the election. Leon noted that if the FMLN wins the presidential election, theFMLN will make no claims of irregularities, but are preparing the way for protests and, possibly, violence, if the results do not favor Funes. ¶4. (C) Leon described the recent evolution of ARENA's internal tracking polls. He said that after Avila's July 13 event at San Salvador's Cuscatlan Stadium, he had risen to a one-point lead over Funes. When fuel prices subsequently spiked, he dropped to a seven-point deficit. Following the October 9 announcement of Zablah as Avila's running mate, he climbed to a consistent deficit of about two points. Leon said ARENA campaign director Cesar Funes (no relation to Mauricio Funes) was hoping for a five point lead by Christmas, which Leon believes is unrealistic. Leon said he would be extremely satisfied to enter the holiday season with a consistent, credible lead of two points. ¶5. (C) Leon said he hoped to have Avila's platform completed by the end of November. He said he was pleased with Avila's improving focus at campaign events and expected the platform to provide a further boost in the polls. Leon said he hoped Zablah would not simply provide a short boost with party faithful followed by a longer-term drag on ARENA's candidacy, something he said was a distinct possibility. Leon said the campaign was working to focus Zablah's efforts on four themes: Pledging to end abuses of power; recognizing and offering solutions to economic pressures on Salvadoran families; subtly signaling separation between Avila and current Salvadoran President Elias Antonio "Tony" Saca and distancing Avila from rumors of corruption in the Saca administration; and, providing assurance that an Avila-Zablah administration will address the economic crisis facing El Salvador. ¶6. (C) Leon, who worked for Zablah during the Cristiani administration (1989-1994) said he believed that while Zablah was fully on message with Avila now, the honeymoon during an Avila-Zablah administration would be short, perhaps only three months, at which point "both will want a divorce." ¶7. (C) Comment: Despite being behind in public polls, ARENA believes it can and will win the March 15 presidential elections. While privately funded polls in the (right-leaning) Salvadoran media have consistently shown Funes with about a four-point lead, San Salvador's Technological University/CIOPS most recent poll gave Funes an eighteen point advantage, consistent with other university polls in recent weeks. Funes' reaction to the divergent numbers was to make a public statement suggesting ARENA-instigated fraud. The university numbers are feeding a sense of certain victory in the FMLN, and lend credence to Leon's concerns about potential violence should Avila pull out a win. BLAU