HIGH GOES EXPECTATIONS FOR IBERO-AMERICAN SUMMIT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SAN SALVADOR 001209 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/21/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL AORC ES SUBJECT: HIGH GOES EXPECTATIONS FOR IBERO-AMERICAN SUMMIT Classified By: The Ambassador for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (SBU) Summary: El Salvador will host the 2008 Ibero-American Summit October 29-31. All 21 participating countries, except Uruguay, have confirmed their attendance. The theme of the conference will be "Youth and Development" and the GOES expects the summit to produce a consensus declaration and action plan. The GOES also expects that heads of state will meet during the summit to discuss the ongoing financial crisis. Venezuelan President Chavez is expected to participate in events organized by some (left-wing) FMLN-related groups on the margins of the conference. However, FMLN presidential candidate Mauricio Funes plans to travel to the United States to avoid meetings with the likes of Chavez, Morales, and Correa. End Summary. -------------- SALVADORANS HAVE HIGH HOPES FOR SUMMIT -------------- ¶2. (C) Salvadoran Vice Minister of Foreign Relations Eduardo Calix Lopez told PolCouns October 20 that the GOES has high expectations for the upcoming Ibero-American Summit, to be held October 29-31 in San Salvador. Of the 21 participating countries only Uruguay has not yet confirmed its attendance. Calix said that theme of the summit is "Youth and Development" and that the GOES expects the summit to produce a consensus declaration with a substantive action plan. He also said heads of state and government will meet during the summit to discuss the current financial crisis. ¶3. (C) When asked about media reports that the Archbishop of San Salvador Fernando Saenz Lacalle had spoken out against the proposed declaration, Calix said the Archbishop had not read the draft declaration prior to those comments and that after having read it, he has given his support. Calix also refuted rumors of a planned &anti-summit8 and said the FMLN has made clear it does not want to create the potential for chaos - a scenario that could harm them in the upcoming 2009 elections. -------------- SPANISH ARE CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC -------------- ¶4. (C) Ricardo Diez-Hochleitner Cousteau, Deputy Chief of Mission at the Spanish Embassy, told PolCouns October 14 that Salvadoran summit preparations have been very thorough, but noted this was truly the first mega-event staged in San Salvador since the 1992 peace accords. He said their preparations were hampered by a lack of personnel, and that the summit, per se, would be no problem, but the many other events in the run up and simultaneous to the summit will be taxing, including a business forum, a civic encounter, and a media event. ¶5. (C) When asked about the goals for the conference, Diez-Hochleitner said that there is value in these summits taking place successfully every year. He said there are good proposals being developed for the final declaration and the action plan will not be finalized until the days before the summit begins. Goals developed by the thirteen ministerial-level meetings held thus far include ideas to promote youth employment, improve education systems, improve living conditions for the young, and to link youth and development issues. The hard part, he said, is finding funding for these proposals and this year was no different. He said this annual meeting provides a valuable opportunity for leaders to discuss regional issues and suggested that Bolivia's internal difficulties might come to the fore. He said the fear is that a good summit outcome will be overshadowed by other events, as happened in Chile with the public dispute between Chavez and Spain's King Juan Carlos. -------------- WHAT ROLE WILL THE FMLN PLAY? -------------- ¶6. (C) Diez-Hochleitner said that the FMLN has indicated they will participate in two activities on the margins of the Ibero-American Summit. The first will be a panel discussion or "reflection" on draft Salvadoran youth law. The second will be a "National Festival" held at the University of El Salvador which (the FMLN asserts) will not be a parallel summit, but an attempt to contribute to the summit. He said that Chavez is expected to attend, and that there is also the possibility of other events, including a massive gathering at a stadium or a march. He said that these events are not so much being proposed or organized by the FMLN, but by youth organizations loosely affiliated with the FMLN under the SAN SALVAD 00001209 002 OF 002 banner of the Permanent Conference of Latin American Political Parties (COPPPAL). COPPPAL proposes to come up with "conclusions" of their meetings and present them to the Heads of State on October 30 or 31. Diez-Hochleitner said the FMLN has repeatedly made clear to the Spanish that they are in no way trying to "dynamite" the summit, but to contribute productively. The FMLN has expressed fears the GOES will attempt to use the summit, and corresponding photos with heads of state, for political ends. Presidential candidate Mauricio Funes plans to travel to Washington for meetings with the International Development Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Bank in order to avoid inconvenient meetings with the likes of Chavez, Morales, and Correa. -------------- THE THREAT OF GRIDLOCK -------------- ¶7. (SBU) If the headline of the summit for residents of San Salvador is Shakira's participation in the closing ceremonies or Chavez antics on the sidelines, the GOES will have succeeded in avoiding traffic chaos that many now fear. Roads around the Casa Presidencial and International Fairgrounds will be closed from noon Wednesday, October 29 to 2 p.m. Friday, October 31, compounding existing traffic bottlenecks due to road construction in nearby neighborhoods. The Embassy will institute a liberal leave and flexible work schedule policy during the summit to accommodate employees with difficulty getting to work as well as those with children in international schools that are closing during the summit. ¶8. (C) Comment: The GOES is sanguine that the FMLN will not intentionally torpedo the summit with a Chavez sideshow that serves inadvertently as a campaign event for (pro-U.S., center-right) ARENA candidate Rodrigo Avila. We are not so sure the FMLN will be able to control the actions of visitors from sympathetic countries or be able to distance itself from them if their rhetoric or accompanying crowds get out of control. We understand Funes' thinking in leaving El Salvador during the summit in order to avoid being linked with Chavez, et al., but as the FMLN's presidential candidate, believe his attempts to disassociate himself will ultimately be futile. GLAZER