EL SALVADOR: RIVAS ZAMORA WILL BE PDC PRESIDENTIAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN SALVADOR 001180

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/09/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL ES
SUBJECT: EL SALVADOR: RIVAS ZAMORA WILL BE PDC PRESIDENTIAL
CANDIDATE

REF: SAN SALVADOR 1158

Classified By: The Ambassador, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Carlos Rivas Zamora, former (left-wing) FMLN
Mayor of San Salvador, was named as the (center-right,
pro-U.S.) Christian Democrat Party (PDC) candidate for
president October 8. His platform will center on a
decentralization of the Salvadoran state. His candidacy aims
to force a second round in order to prevent a Funes/FMLN
victory. He believes Funes, if he wins the election, will
face a significant challenge to his authority by the FMLN
leadership. End Summary.


2. (C) Carlos Rivas Zamora, former (then-FMLN) Mayor of San
Salvador was named as the Christian Democrat party's (PDC)
candidate for President on September 24. He told PolCouns
October 8 the PDC has two goals in 2009 Salvadoran elections:
to force a second round and prevent an FMLN victory in
presidential elections and to increase PDC's representation
in the Legislative Assembly from six (of 84) deputies to as
many as 12. (Note: Legislative and Municipal elections will
be held February 18. Presidential elections will be held
March 15, with a possible runoff April 19. End note.) PDC
believes strong mayoral candidates in San Miguel and La Union
as well as the effect of residual votes in legislative
elections (see reftel para 6) make this possible. Rivas
Zamora said PDC's platform will propose a decentralized
Salvadoran state (along the lines of Spain) and an austerity
plan. He said both the FMLN and ARENA depend on the highly
centralized Salvadoran state in order to maintain their
political duopoly and decentralization would be a key
negotiating point if he succeeds in forcing a second round
presidential vote. He plans to name a woman as his running
mate.


3. (C) Reacting to San Salvador's Central American University
Public Opinion Institute (UCA/IUDOP) poll released October 8
that gave (center-right, pro-U.S.) ARENA candidate Rodrigo
Avila 34.2 percent support, FMLN's Mauricio Funes 49.7
percent, "none of the above" 13.3 percent (Note: the IUDOP
poll only included Avila and Funes. End note.),Rivas Zamora
said Avila faced a "difficult" election. However, he
believes Funes faces a much more difficult, even dangerous,
situation should he win. Rivas Zamora recounted his own
experience after winning election as mayor of San Salvador.
During the campaign, the FMLN allowed him to manage his
campaign, select advisors, and advance policy positions.
Immediately thereafter, then FMLN leader Schafik Handal
informed Rivas Zamora that his city manager had been
selected. Rivas Zamora countered that voters had selected
him as Mayor and he alone would be responsible for meeting
their expectations. Handal, he said, was furious, setting
the stage for his eventual expulsion from the FMLN. Rivas
Zamora believes a similar conflict awaits Funes, suggesting
the FMLN will seek to dictate Funes' selection of ministers.
Rivas Zamora specifically mentioned Funes' likely choice for
Defense Minister, non-FMLN member and retired Salvadoran Army
Colonel David Munguia Payes, saying he believed the FMLN
would insist on naming a hard-line party member to that post,
possibly even dual-hatting FMLN VP candidate Salvador Sanchez
Ceren.


4. (C) Comment: Rivas Zamora has no illusions of winning the
Salvadoran presidency, but believes he can -- indeed, must --
draw enough votes from Funes in March in order to ensure a
presidential runoff election in April. His own experience
leads him to conclude the stakes for Funes -- and El Salvador
-- are high. We agree. While Rivas Zamora's experience
bucking the FMLN leadership is not encouraging, Funes has a
combative style that guarantees FMLN challenges will not go
unanswered. Unless the Salvadoran electorate's mood changes
and ARENA's campaign message becomes more effective, the
battle for El Salvador's future may extend well past
inauguration day June 1, 2009.
GLAZER