ARENA PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE CONFIDENT; INDICATES MORE AGGRESSIVE CAMPAIGN IN THE MAKING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN SALVADOR 001088 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/18/2018 TAGS: ES PGOV PREL SUBJECT: ARENA PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE CONFIDENT; INDICATES MORE AGGRESSIVE CAMPAIGN IN THE MAKING REF: SAN SALVADOR 827 Classified By: DCM Blau for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Although he is still behind in the latest opinion polls, conservative, pro-U.S. ARENA Presidential candidate Rodrigo Avila is confident that he will be able to convince the Salvadoran electorate that backing the left-wing FMLN is a dangerous leap into the unknown. Avila indicates that he will name a Vice Presidential candidate within the next two weeks, and that his campaign will soon shift into a more aggressive mode. End summary. ¶2. (C) The DCM hosted a lunch for ARENA Presidential candidate Rodrigo Avila, his wife Celina, and ARENA campaign manager Cesar Funes on September 16. Avila started the conversation by noting that his campaign has improved markedly since July, and that he is closing the distance between himself and FMLN Presidential candidate Mauricio Funes. (Note: One recent opinion poll, from early September, shows Funes ahead of Avila by three percent, but with over one-third of the electorate undecided. End note). Admitting that he got off to a slow start, Avila then stated that he expects to be tied with Funes by early October. Avila said that while the public perception is that his campaign has been slow to reach critical mass because of squabbling and divisiveness within ARENA, the reality is that he has opted to take his time and make sure that he gets all the important judgment calls right. ¶3. (C) Both Avila and Cesar Funes (Note: No relation to Mauricio Funes) stated that the Vice Presidential nomination will be crucial to the outcome of the election. Avila told us that he has several candidates in mind, and that he will be announcing his choice within the next two weeks. Although he declined to identify who he will name, Avila said that his choice will reflect his determination to incite change within the ranks of ARENA, and to make the party more inclusive and reflective of Salvadoran society. Avila then bluntly stated that local businessman Arturo Zablah, who served as Minister of Economy under President Cristiani (1989-1994; reftel) and is portrayed in the media as having the best shot at landing the ARENA Vice Presidential nomination, will not be his choice. Avila said that he would have named Zablah to the position three weeks ago, had Zablah not leaked to the media the details of a personal interview in which the two discussed the outlines of Avila's economic policy. ¶4. (C) The conversation then turned to the dynamics of Avila's contest with FMLN candidate Mauricio Funes. Both Avila and his campaign manager agreed that Mauricio Funes is a formidable candidate, and that the public recognition Funes built up while hosting a highly-rated television news program for ten years gives the FMLN an "effective shield" from the radical image it has always had. Campaign manager Cesar Funes dismissed Mauricio Funes' attempts to distance himself from hard-left party stalwarts such as FMLN Vice Presidential candidate (and former guerrilla leader) Sanchez Ceren as either insincere or foolish. He stated that Mauricio Funes would if victorious serve as the trojan horse that delivers El Salvador into the growing ranks of the anti-American "Chavista" faction already entrenched in neighboring Nicaragua and elsewhere. ¶5. (C) In terms of his own campaign strategy, Avila stated that his greatest challenge is to "sell" Salvadoran voters on the notion that he both wants and can enact beneficial change. Avila told us that he genuinely wants to make ARENA a more inclusive political party, and, more importantly, that he intends to foment economic growth, create jobs, and expand prosperity beyond the upper and middle classes. He said that voter anger over rising gasoline and commodity prices are hurting his polling numbers and that, but for these two dynamics beyond ARENA's control, he would "probably be out in front of Funes by a considerable margin by now." Avila stated that the key to winning the election will be to play upon the Salvadoran voters genuine fear of the FMLN, but to "not overdo it." Both he and his campaign manager indicated that they will more aggressively alert the electorate to the "true nature of what the FMLN represents," i.e. "Chavismo" and economic uncertainty, and at the same time continue to stress that he offers "genuine change" in the context of "a democratic political system that respects private property and maintains a good relationship with the U.S." ¶6. (C) In an interesting aside, Avila told us that he was "frustrated" by an "attitude" that he had observed in Washington that gave him the impression that the USG assumed Funes and the FMLN "had the election already won." Avila also referred to criticism of the Saca administration's handling of violent protests last year in Suchitoto as an example of how ARENA is "sometimes misunderstood in Washington," as well as unfairly demonized by left-leaning media, non-governmental organizations, and human rights groups. ¶7. (C) Comment: Avila and ARENA campaign manager Funes left no doubt that despite being behind in the polls, they are nonetheless confident they will prevail. At the same time, they also gave us the distinct impression they are still waiting for the right moment to attack Funes with negative advertising. Avila and company appear to believe that naming a Vice Presidential candidate will give them a significant bounce in the polls, as well as serve as a springboard for a more aggressive campaign that capitalizes upon voter fear of the uncertainty that an FMLN victory could usher in. End comment. BLAU