NATIONAL CIVILIAN POLICE DIRECTOR RESIGNS TO RUN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN SALVADOR 000101

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/30/2018
TAGS: ES PREL
SUBJECT: NATIONAL CIVILIAN POLICE DIRECTOR RESIGNS TO RUN
FOR PRESIDENT

REF: 2007 SAN SALVADOR 1485

Classified By: Charge Michael Butler for reasons 1.4(b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Rodrigo Avila, the highly-respected Director
of the National Civilian Police (PNC),on January 25
announced his resignation from the PNC and his subsequent
intention to seek the ARENA party Presidential nomination in
the March 2009 elections. While Avila's decision to throw
his hat into the Presidential mix seemingly offers ARENA a
strong leader to rally behind in the looming electoral
confrontation with Mauricio Funes and the FMLN, it remains to
be seen whether Avila will be able to overcome a few key
hurdles that could prevent him from mounting a serious bid
for the ARENA nomination. End summary.


2. (C) Avila is a young technocrat best known for having
served two stints as Director of the National Civilian
Police, the first time under then President Armando Calderon
Sol (1994-99),and the second under current President Elias
Antonio Saca (Jan. 2006-Jan. 2008). As PNC Director, Avila
has shown strong leadership skills, as well as a
determination to enhance the professionalism and
institutional capacity of the national police force. He was
instrument al in the creation of the Special Operations
Group, a PNC unit tasked with locating, tracking, and
apprehending the most dangerous Salvadoran criminals, as well
as the Transnational Anti-Gang Unit (TAG),a joint PNC-FBI
entity charged with leading the offensive against MS-13 and
M-18. Avila, who was educated in the U.S. (Gainesville, GA,
and NC State) and speaks fluent English with a hint of a
southern drawl, has consistently sought to expand cooperative
law enforcement efforts with the U.S., as well as to make the
most of USG-provided law enforcement assistance. Over the
course of his seven years at the helm of the PNC, Avila has
exercised responsible stewardship of an important national
organization. At the conclusion of both of his tenures in
office he left the police force in better condition than when
he started. Given the immensity of the criminal threat
facing the undermanned, understaffed PNC, however, Avila's
laudable efforts have not been sufficient to allow the
Salvadoran government to make significant progress in terms
of reducing violent crime rates.


3. (C) While Avila's management of the PNC has been focused
primarily on operational law enforcement issues, he has also
demonstrated a propensity to use the position to generate
political momentum for the two ARENA presidents he has
served. In response to public concern over spiraling rates
of kidnappings, extortion, and gang activity, Avila has
mounted concentrated law enforcement campaigns aimed at
addressing the problems at hand. Not coincidentally, he has
also ensured that PNC efforts have received extensive media
coverage and been manifestly linked to Presidential
assurances of enhanced public security. In the process,
Avila has solidified a leadership position within the ARENA
party, and developed a reputation as a leading authority on
public security issues.


4. (C) Despite Avila's strong track record with the PNC, a
few significant obstacles could still derail his bid to
secure the ARENA Presidential nomination for 2009. FMLN
strategists tasked with countering an Avila candidacy will
almost certainly generate statistics purporting to show that
violent crime and rates of victimization increased during
Avila's two stints at the PNC. They will also attempt to
portray Avila as a key enabler in the 'politicization' of
Salvadoran law enforcement under President Saca, identifying
the PNC response to the July 2007 riots in Suchitoto (reftel)
as a prime point of reference in an alleged pattern of
backsliding on human rights under President Saca.


5. (C) On an even more basic level, unsubstantiated but
lingering accusations of conflict of interest could undermine
Avila's candidacy within ARENA itself. Press speculation, as
well as persistent rumors on the political cocktail circuit,
allege that after assuming the directorship of the PNC for a
second time in January 2006 Avila never fully divested his
financial interests in various business ventures involving
security services and the sale of firearms. (Note: Our
information indicates that he divested these interests while
in the Legislative Assembly. End note). How these
allegations will play out in the ARENA selection process, let
alone how Avila will stack up against the other announced
ARENA candidates in the internal party deliberations remains
to be seen.


6. (C) Should Avila secure the ARENA nomination, he would
seem to match up well against the FMLN's Maurico Funes.
Avila is young (born June 25, 1964),well-spoken, telegenic,
and would appear able to connect with a wide spectrum of
Salvadoran voters. His track record on public security

issues, as well as his previous service as Vice Minister of
Governance (2004-2005) and member of the Legislative Assembly
(2000-2003) would also appear to offer advantages over the
relative inexperience of former journalist turned politico
Mauricio Funes. Avila's proving able to put a positive spin
on his stewardship of the PNC would enable him to both win
over and reassure a Salvadoran public anxious over violent
crime. Avila can also point to an excellent relationship
with the embassy and USG in general, as well as an extensive
network of contacts in the U.S. In contrast, his most recent
foray into electoral politics, a failed run for the mayorship
of Santa Tecla against popular FMLN politico Oscar Ortiz, did
not go terribly well. Additional years of experience at the
PNC, coupled with enthusiastic backing from the ARENA rank
and file, could conceivably push Avila over the top should he
reach the larger stage a Presidential bid would afford.


7. (C) Comment: Avila is both well-known and well-regarded
within this mission. As Director of the PNC, he has
demonstrated a strong propensity to work in support of U.S.
interests, as well as a strongly pro-American demeanor.
Simply put, this is definitely someone we can work with.
Should Avila's candidacy gain traction within ARENA, we would
strongly suggest efforts to put him in touch with Department
officials and other Washington principals as events warrant.
End comment.
BUTLER