SAADA UPDATE: IT'S NOT QUIET ON YEMEN'S

S E C R E T SANAA 000067 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/14/2018 TAGS: PINS PGOV YM SUBJECT: SAADA UPDATE: IT'S NOT QUIET ON YEMEN'S NORTHWESTERN FRONTIER REF: A. 07 SANAA 2081 ¶B. 07 SANAA 2124 ¶C. 1308542Z JAN 08 ¶D. 0515052Z NOV 07 ¶E. 1920592Z DEC 07 Classified By: A/DCM Mike Sarhan for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (U) On January 10 there was renewed intense fighting in Saada in northwestern Yemen between al-Houthi and ROYG forces leading to a spike in casualties. A Qatari-mediated cease-fire is widely accepted to have failed despite efforts at the highest levels to maintain it. A fifth war in Saada is likely to reignite during the summer of 2008, and may have already begun. Paragraphs six through nine contain a summary of recent events in the region reported in the press. END SUMMARY RENEWED FIGHTING -------------- ¶2. (U) On January 11 Associated Press and other news sources reported that on January 10 clashes in Saada especially around the Haidan near the Saudi border killed 30 people including up to eight government soldiers. This represents a spike in casualties in ongoing clashes since post's last reports on Saada in refs A and B. Media reports said that the majority of casualties resulted from shelling by government forces. A report by the Italy based Arab Monitor claimed that the January 10 incident started when government soldiers detained a woman in a Haidan village and al-Houthis and tribesmen attempt to free her. (COMMENT: News reports inaccurately characterize this recent clash as a breaking of the cease-fire between al-Houthis, a group of loyal to Zaydi (Shite) cleric Abdulmalik al-Houthi, and the ROYG. In reality there has been fighting for several months. END COMMENT.) ¶3. (S) In ref C post reported that the Chief of staff of the Yemeni Military, Major General Ahmed Ali al-Ashwal called the figures reported in the media inaccurate and said only four Yemeni soldiers have been killed in the last two weeks in ambushes. Al-Ashwal admits that the al-Houthis receive more positive reporting than the ROYG in the media. ¶4. (C) PolOff spoke to Abdul Majid Fadh, a Saada native, who runs the Civic Democratic Foundation NGO, who said reported casualties were spread over a wide area not just in Haidan and reports exaggerate the intensity of violence in that area, however, he pointed out that violence has been continuing for some time. He said that Haidan is an area in contest between the government security forces and al-Houthis. He said the government is losing support with average Saadais due to its violent tactics and arbitrary actions. He further commented that Sheikh Faris Mohammed Manna, who is reported to be in Saada at the behest of President Saleh to mediate a peace, did not have credibility to negotiate there because of his open support of the ROYG since 2004. ¶5. (C) PolOff also corresponded with Sana'a University Political Science Professor Abdullah al-Faqih, who unofficially drafted the cease-fire agreement signed by the ROYG and al-Houthis in June. Al-Faqih predicted that, though intermittent fighting will continue, neither side will gain from renewed war. Both sides lose if war breaks out, both in promised Qatari development aid and in &the collapse of the regime and most likely of the state itself.8 RECENT EVENTS IN SAADA CONFLICT -------------- ¶6. (U) Since early November there have been weekly clashes in Saada escalating to pronouncements of a possible renewed outbreak of war by al-Houthi leadership. On November 8 the English language newspaper Yemen Times reported that the government mediation committee spokesperson Aidarous al-Naqeeb said negotiations had broken down after the Qatari delegation left in August, and that renewed fighting was highly likely. ¶7. (C) The Qatari Ambassador to Yemen in December said to a UN diplomat that the mediation was at an end, despite efforts by the Prime Minister Ali Mohammed Mujawar and Presidential adviser Abdul Karim al-Eryani to revive Qatari interest (ref B). Qatari DCM told PolOff that the mediation was dead. ¶8. (U) On December 5 and December 17 the Yemen Times and BBC reported that tribes were increasingly involved in clashes. In one case tribes ambushed Government forces in revenge for the killing of their Sheikh Salem Derham. On December 16 Yemen Times reported the al-Houthi field commander Abdulmalik al-Houthi sent a letter to the main opposition coalition Joint Meeting Parties, leadership warning them that government excesses, mass detentions, demolition of residential areas including one mosque (the Muslim place of worship),and large scale deployments in Saada threatened to start of the fifth war in Saada. (Note: Abdulmalik al-Houthis is a Zaydi Shite cleric who was left in charge of the al-Houthi movement when government forces killed his son Hussein Abdulmalik al-Houthi in 2004. End Note.) On December 25 the government news source Yemen News Agency reported that Yemeni Minister of Interior Dr. Rashad Mohammed al-Alimi congratulated security personnel for maintaining order, security and unity in Saada. Saada Governor Matahar al-Masri said the situation in Saada was stable and that billions of Yemeni riyals were allocated to development. On January 3 the Yemen Times reported that Sheikh Faris Mohammed Manna was in Saada at the head of a fact finding committee for President Saleh. ¶9. (U) On December 25 the Yemen Times reported that Northwestern Military Commander General Ali Muhsen al-Ahmar's Manager Askar Zuail gave a sermon in which he called al-Houthis 'disbelievers' and asked the congregation to "kill all the Shiite Houthi supporters for the sake of Allah and the Prophet Mohammed." COMMENT: -------------- ¶10. (S) All is not well in Saada. It is likely current skirmishes may lead to Abdulmalik's prediction of a fifth war (or continuation of the fourth) in the summer 2008 in Saada. Fighting has not subsided, rather it has been overshadowed by events in the South, some tribal uneasiness and terror related incidents including the bombing of an oil pipeline in November (ref D) and the case of Jamal al-Badawi. Reports suggest the al-Houthis still control large areas of Saada, a particularly mountainous region of Yemen, and have some backing from elements in Saudi Arabia (ref E). The breakdown of mediation, which al-Naqeeb blames in part on more pressing matters of state, and the failure of either side to fulfill the Qatari brokered cease-fire (though al-Houthi spokesperson Sheikh Saleh Habra and Fadh identified positions al-Houthis gave up to the ROYG forces) led to increased rhetoric and live fire. ¶11. (C) News that Faris Manna was appointed to a role in Saada by President Saleh was not well received. He is a well known and documented arms dealer, who President Saleh himself admits is supplying both the ROYG and the al-Houthis. Faris Manna has little credibility as a mediator in Saada. ¶12. (C) Contrary to Professor al-Faqih's diagnosis, neither side will likely see war as a precursor to the collapse of the state. Four prior wars fought in Saada since 2004 did not lead to its collapse. Al-Houthis probably do not expect to see much of the aid money offered by the Qataris due to rampant corruption and may want to cement their apparent success in the last war. SECHE