THE FORUM'S FUTURE STILL IN DOUBT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SANAA 000003 SIPDIS SIPDIS FOR NEA/ARP E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/01/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV YM SUBJECT: THE FORUM'S FUTURE STILL IN DOUBT REF: SANAA 2361 Classified By: Ambassador Stephen A. Seche for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) The Ambassador and the German CDA met with Foreign Minister Abubakr al-Qirbi on January 2 to discuss the Forum for the Future. The Ambassador noted the USG's continued commitment to the Forum, but, in the absence of a representative of the Japanese Embassy, no progress was made on forming a joint position on how to proceed. The Foreign Minister made it clear that the ROYG would prefer to host the Forum, but said that there is insufficient time to prepare for the event before the spring. The participants agreed to meet again on January 9, hopefully with their Japanese counterpart as well. The Minister made it clear that if a Sana'a Forum fails to take place, the ROYG does not want to be blamed. End Summary. State of Play -------------- ¶2. (C) On January 2, the Ambassador met with Foreign Minister AbuBakr al-Qirbi and the German CDA in an effort to finalize a plan that would either allow the Forum for the Future to take place or reach consensus on cancellation. No representative of the Japanese Embassy attended the meeting, although it is unclear why. The Ambassador told the FM that the US would like to see the Forum go forward and reiterated that the Secretary had set aside February 5 to attend it, presuming all political obstacles to her participation are removed. The German CDA said that his government would support the holding of the Forum provided the German government played no hosting role whatsoever. Al-Qirbi said that his conversations with the Japanese led him to believe that they had no intention of dealing with the "unfinished business" of the 2007 Forum and see the 2008 Forum with the UAE as their only responsibility. ¶3. (C) Al-Qirbi then said that the ball is in the G8's court but noted that it is a ball that "everyone wants to throw to someone else." He went on to say that he had hoped that the meeting would lead to a firm joint position and suggested that it may be time for Yemen and Germany to share the responsibility and make the choice, an invitation the German chose to ignore. He also said that, with only a month left for preparations, the February 5 date was not workable. He then suggested three possible ways forward: first, the Forum could be held in the spring with some form of G8 hosting; second, the G8 could designate a country other than Germany or Japan as co-host (he suggested RUSSIA based on what he acknowledged was second-hand information that RUSSIA was prepared to do so); and third, Japan and Yemen could co-host the 2008 Forum. ¶4. (C) Al-Qirbi said that the ROYG would be willing to host the Forum at the sub-ministerial level, noting that the level of representation reflects on the sending nation rather than the hosting nation. The Ambassador said that he believed the USG would be willing to push for an enhanced role for Yemen in an Emirati/Japanese 2008 Forum to showcase Yemen's commitment to the Forum and its principles. The Minister did not respond to this offer. Placing Blame -------------- ¶5. (C) The Foreign Minister then began to discuss ways to announce the cancellation of the Forum, if necessary. The Ambassador emphasized the importance of such an announcement not placing blame on any particular country. Al-Qirbi said that he was not certain that he could agree to that, noting that blame would fall on the weakest country (i.e. Yemen) if it were not clearly defined. He then suggested that the cancellation be announced at a joint press conference. The Ambassador discouraged this approach and recommended a joint statement instead. Next Steps -------------- ¶6. (C) Foreign Minister al-Qirbi noted that he was traveling to Cairo on Saturday and suggested that all four parties meet on January 9 for further discussions. Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) While unwilling to be the one to make the decision, the Foreign Minister seems prepared, as he did earlier this week (reftel) for the cancellation of the Forum, if no clear way forward is found. The ROYG does not, however, appear to be willing to be the sole bearer of the responsibility for its cancellation, something it continues to suggest it will lay at the feet of the G8. End Comment. SECHE