OPPOSITION LEADER: PARTICIPATION IN APRIL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SANAA 001935 FOR NEA/ARP E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/02/2018 TAGS: PGOV PHUM KCOR KDEM YM SUBJECT: OPPOSITION LEADER: PARTICIPATION IN APRIL ELECTIONS IMPOSSIBLE REF: SANAA 1887 Classified By: Ambassador Stephen A. Seche for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) With Yemen's April 2009 Parliamentary elections approaching, the opposition continues to boycott all election preparations. The concessions that President Saleh is willing to discuss privately come nowhere near addressing what the opposition deems to be its "minimum standards" for participation in the elections. The opposition believes there is now insufficient time for the ruling party to meet its demands before the date of the elections, even if the ruling party chooses to do so. While the opposition has held out in previous elections only to give in at the last moment, it appears willing to sit the elections out if its reform demands are not met. End Summary. Saleh Bends a Little -------------- ¶2. (C) Less than five months before scheduled Parliamentary elections, the opposition Joint Meeting Parties (JMP) continues its boycott of election preparations. The gap between the JMP and the ruling General People's Congress (GPC) is as wide as it has ever been. On November 25, maverick member of the GPC's General Committee, Sheikh Mohamed Abulahoum told POL/E Chief that he had met with President Saleh for two hours and impressed upon him the urgency of reaching a compromise with the JMP if he hopes the Parliamentary elections to be successful and have opposition participation. ¶3. (C) He then elicited from Saleh a list of compromises the President would be willing to make, including enacting the amendments to the election law that had been agreed to by both parties in August, reconfiguring the Supreme Commission for Elections and Referenda (SCER),and allowing the JMP to review the registration lists in a manner to which they agree. The President specifically told Abulahoum that he was not willing to rescind the executive order he issued in August populating the SCER, as he was unwilling to "go back on his word." (Note: Abulahoum is a trusted, long-time contact of the Embassy. While he is not one of the President's inner circle of advisors, he clearly has access to Saleh. As one of the few people in Yemen who is willing to speak frankly with Saleh and deliver him news he does not want to hear, Abulahoum can sometimes gain the President's ear and his notoriously mercurial attention when more significant advisors can not. End Note.) JMP Doesn't Bend At All -------------- ¶4. (C) On November 29, POL/E Chief met with Secretary General Abdulawahab al-Anisi of JMP member party Islah, attempting to ascertain to what extent JMP might be willing to compromise on its demands for ending the boycott. (Note: The JMP has an extensive list of demands that were enumerated in an open letter to the President. These include the implementation of all agreed-to amendments to the electoral law and the annulment of the existing SCER and all actions it has undertaken since its members were appointed in August. (The full text of the JMP's demands can be found in para. 7.) End Note.) Anisi described the JMP position as its minimum requirements for participation and would not concede even one item on which the JMP would compromise. POL/E Chief asked if he believed it would be possible for the GPC to meet these demands in time for the elections to be held as scheduled in April. He responded dismissively that it would be impossible to do so. ¶5. (C) POL/E Chief had heard a similar hard-line from Secretary General Sultan al-Atwani of the JMP Chair Nasserite Unionist party on November 15 (reftel). (Note: While the Nasserite Party is technically the chair of the JMP, it is a much weaker party than Islah and is expected to become even weaker if the Parliamentary elections are held. End Note.) POL/E Chief asked Anisi if the impossibility of having its demands met in time meant the JMP wanted a postponement of the elections. He responded to the contrary that not only was the JMP not asking for a postponement, it would not endorse one unless the GPC tied it to a specific plan to meet the JMP demands. Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) The JMP has held out in previous elections only to give in at the last minute. It is impossible to discount the possibility that it will do so again. Post's JMP interlocutors, however, are firmly maintaining their position. The JMP stance, combined with the opposition's very public criticism of the SCER's activities, leads many to believe that this time things may be different. The opposition appears prepared to force Saleh either to bend or go through with the elections without JMP participation. At the very least, it appears that the JMP has painted itself into a corner where it cannot participate in the April elections without climbing down very publicly from its very clearly staked position. End Comment. ¶7. (U) Begin text of JMP demands. * Canceling all illegal individual arrangements for election which took place since the 18 August 2008 Parliamentary Session until today. * Ratify the election law amendment project adding the issues the project didn,t contain during its ratification in Parliament, which will satisfy the requirement of the referenced project signed agreements (Agreement on Principals and the Recommendations of the European Mission) as follows: ** Use the proportional list system of election as a substitute to the current election system. In addition to other positive characteristics, this system is characterized by fairness in representing voters including the guarantee of women representation in Parliament. ** Determine the quorum of votes in the Supreme Commission on the basis of two thirds in appointment, employment, lists, evidence, and approval of the announcement of results. ** Cancellation of the third location (location of work),and deleting all its references in the text of the law. ** Stipulate the composition of the Supreme Committee and Election Committees from parties on a balanced basis between the ruling party and opposition. ** Stipulate clear legal text defining effective and practical mechanisms that guarantee neutrality (public funds, media, military or civilian employment) on the level of the Directorate Centers, on the central level in Governorates. Re-correct the altered text in the modification project concerning the neutrality of public employment according to the Agreement on Principles. ** Stipulate the right of parties in obtaining the complete electronic election records from the Supreme Committee, in a form that may be processed electronically. ** Consider signature of members of the election committee on election paper before turning it over the voter a condition for the validity and security of the vote, which also serves as a guarantee against leaking election papers to forcing voters to vote for a given nominee or party. ** Sole dependence upon the National Identity (individual or family) or passport when identifying a voter on voter,s schedule. **Stipulate on treating the conditions of Supreme Committee employees who were employed and appointed in violation to the terms of civil employment and election laws, and transferring them with their legal rights to the Ministry of Civil Service. * Enabling the Committee after its restructure so it may perform all its duties in arranging its affairs, and prepare for the next election in light of the amended and agreed upon law. * Removing all elements of tension and political congestion, and providing the necessary atmosphere suitable for elections the forefront of which are: * Refrain from pursuing political activists, release those detained illegally, and compensate those who were subjected to imprisonment or physical and psychological abuse. * Annulment of all laws, decisions, guidance, and orders which do not conform to the Constitution and Law pertaining to the suppression of peaceful political, or people activities, which limit general rights and liberties. * Cessation of abusive pressures and practices, and policy of political corruption and corrupting aimed at parties, unions, and civil society organizations, or interfering in their affairs, expanding or breaking them, releasing their properties, headquarters, locations, funds, documents confiscated contrary to the Constitution and prevailing law since the 1994 war until today. End Text of JMP Demands. SECHE