ITALY TO HOLD ELECTIONS APRIL 13-14

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ROME 000167 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV IT SUBJECT: ITALY TO HOLD ELECTIONS APRIL 13-14 REF: A. ROME DAILY REPORT (5 FEB 2008) ¶B. ROME 0133 ¶C. ROME 0118 ROME 00000167 001.2 OF 002 SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) President Napolitano dissolved Italy's parliament February 6, triggering new elections set by caretaker PM Prodi and his Council of Ministers for April 13-14. Prodi will remain caretaker PM until a new government is sworn in after the elections, probably in early-to-mid-May. As caretaker, the Prodi government can conduct "normal business," though Prodi has indicated he intends to pursue a relatively broad definition of normal business. END SUMMARY. NAPOLITANO DISSOLVES PARLIAMENT -------------- ¶2. (U) Italian Senate President Franco Marini reported to President Giorgio Napolitano February 4 that he could neither put together a government nor find consensus on electoral reform (REF A),leading Napolitano to dissolve parliament. In accordance with the Italian constitution, Napolitano convoked the Presidents of the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies February 5 to discuss his decision, and dissolved parliament February 6 with a presidential decree jointly signed by caretaker PM Romano Prodi. The now-dissolved parliamentary session is the second shortest in the history of the Italian Republic. COUNCIL OF MINISTERS SETS ELECTIONS APRIL 13-14 -------------- -- ¶3. (SBU) After his meeting with the President, Prodi convened the Council of Ministers and signed a decree setting new elections for April 13-14. The government may issue a legislative decree in the next few days permitting the Ministry of Interior to schedule administrative (city) elections on the same day. The center left favors a simultaneous national and local election day since the center left generally performs better in local elections than the center right. The center right, on the other hand, currently leads in the polling at the national level. LENGTHY GOVERNMENT FORMATION PROCESS -------------- ¶4. (U) It took 38 days for Prodi to form a government after the 2006 elections, and former PM Silvio Berlusconi required 29 days in 2001. Close election results tend to prolong Italy's government formation process. GOVERNMENT FORMATION--STEP BY STEP: Step 1: Elections scheduled April 13-14. Step 2: Parliament sworn in, within 20 days of election day. Step 3: Napolitano consults political leaders; generally taking two days in the event of a clear winner and more if the results are not decisive. Step 4: Napolitano appoints PM-Designate. Practice is for the President to select the pre-designated leader of the coalition winning the elections. Step 5: PM-Designate consults with coalition allies on Ministerial posts and government program. Step 6: PM-Designate reports to Napolitano, presents list of ministers and accepts mandate. Step 7: President swears in new government and Prodi ceases to be caretaker PM. Step 8: New government must present government program and win a confidence vote in parliament within ten days of being sworn in. GOVERNMENT FORMATION--AN EXAMPLE The 2006 election cycle was exceptional because the new parliament simultaneously elected a new President of the Republic, which will not occur this year. In 2001: 05/13: Berlusconi coalition wins elections. 05/30: Parliament sworn in. ROME 00000167 002.2 OF 002 06/07: President Ciampi consults political parties. 06/09: Ciampi asks Berlusconi to form government. 06/10: Berlusconi presents Ciampi with government list. 06/11: Ciampi swears in Berlusconi government. 06/20: Berlusconi government wins Chamber confidence vote. 06/21: Berlusconi government wins Senate confidence vote. PARLIAMENT AFTER THE ELECTIONS -------------- ¶5. (U) Napolitano will shortly issue a decree establishing when the new parliament will be sworn in, though the swearing in must happen within 20 days of election day. Political parties generally work quickly to establish parliamentary leadership since those leaders represent the parties during presidential consultations. ESTABLISHING SENATE LEADERSHIP--STEP BY STEP: Step 1: Election results certified. Step 2: Senate sworn in within 20 days of the elections. Step 3: Senate President elected within two days of swearing in. Step 4: Parliamentary groups (parties) must elect leadership within seven days of swearing in, though it generally happens more quickly. ESTABLISHING CHAMBER LEADERSHIP--STEP BY STEP: Step 1: Election results certified. Step 2: Chamber of Deputies sworn in within 20 days of elections.. Step 3: Chamber President elected. There is no specific time frame, but it usually happens within three days of swearing in. Step 4: Parliamentary groups (parties) elect leadership, generally within four days of swearing in. PRODI AS CARETAKER PRIME MINISTER -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Prodi will remain caretaker PM until a new PM is sworn in after the elections. Italian law is vague regarding the powers of a caretaker government. By tradition, a caretaker government conducts only "normal business," though Prodi has indicated he intends to use a relatively broad definition of what constitutes normal business. Parliamentary leaders will meet later today to establish parliamentary priorities from now through the swearing in of the next parliament, as they also continue in a caretaker capacity. SPOGLI