ITALY: FALL REGIONAL ELECTIONS A TEST FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ROME 001279

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/20/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL IT
SUBJECT: ITALY: FALL REGIONAL ELECTIONS A TEST FOR
OPPOSITION RESILIENCE

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Classified By: POL/MIL Counselor Liam Wasley for Reasons 1.4 (B) and
(D)

Summary
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1. (C) Two elections in the coming weeks will be the first
opportunity for the electorate to speak since the
center-right's resounding victory in April. Provincial
elections in Trentino (October 26) could go either way, but
given the center left's traditional strength in the province,
a center right win would further bolster center right
strength after its big win in the April national elections.
The center right is expected to win regional elections in
Abruzzo (November 30) after a kickback scandal involving the
former center-left regional president, but the ability of the
main opposition Democratic Party (PD) to ally with smaller
partners in Abruzzo, will be a bellwether of PD's ability to
seriously challenge the center right in European Parliament
elections in May or June 2009. End summary.

Trentino: PD Defeat Could Reverberate Nationally
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2. (C) After PD's national defeat in April, party strategists
said the PD needed to do better in rich northern provinces
like Trentino to become competitive nationwide. Center left
leaders have spoken often about building a grassroots
movement, and the center left is well rooted in Trentino.
However, it is combating national trends, including
increasing sourness with PD leader Walter Veltroni and the
spreading strength of the center-right Northern League, which
expanded its electorate significantly in Trentino in the
April national elections. Should the center left lose, the
national media will mark the defeat as yet another stain on
VeltroniQ,s record, and a further decline in the
center-left's competitiveness.

Abruzzo: The Center of the Storm between Di Pietro and PD
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3. (C) Abruzzo is generally a closely divided region, but the
center right has the edge in this election following the
resignation of the center left regional president after being
implicated in a corruption scandal. Nationally, PD has
struggled to build a united opposition with smaller
opposition parties Union of the Center (UDC) and Italy of
Values (IDV). The election in Abruzzo is regarded as a test
case as to whether Veltroni can build a broad, competitive
opposition. Thus far it has not been pretty. IDV leader and
former anti-corruption magistrate Antonio Di Pietro has
launched withering attacks on both Berlusconi and Veltroni as
he seeks to build his party by cannibalizing votes from the
PD. The prefect in Abruzzo's capital Aurelio Cozzani told us
that the Abruzzo election is a tailor-made opportunity for Di
Pietro because of the strong feelings against traditional
politicians among Abruzzese, who feel they have been
misgoverned for years. Veltroni is trying to force Di Pietro
back into the fold, or--failing that--diminish his appeal by
demonstrating that he is weakening the center left to
Berlusconi's benefit.


4. (C) UDC is also relatively strong in the region, but the
combative relations between IDV and UDC nationally based on
personalities, ideology, and history are amplified in
Abruzzo, and almost certainly exclude the possibility of a
broad consensus on the center left in Abruzzo, probably the
only chance for the center left to win there--and nationwide.
In Abruzzo, PD is in the uncomfortable position of having to
choose IDV or UDC and alienate the other party. National and
local officials tell us that they regard the election as a
trial run for alliance formation before the European
elections.


5. (C) The center right's likely victory has intensified its
squabbling over candidate selection. Berlusconi and other top
officials from his People of Liberty (PdL) party met multiple
times before choosing Gianni Chiodi, mayor of Teramo. Abruzzo
contacts told us he is a good choice because he has a strong
local reputation, has not been involved in national politics,
and is neither tied to Forza Italia (FI) nor National
Alliance (AN),thus sidestepping the internal battle in PdL
between these two constituent parties. PdL's ability to keep
the infighting over candidate selection in Abruzzo and
Trentino out of the papers shows its internal discipline and
the control Berlusconi has over the party.

Comment
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6. (C) Pundits are watching these contests for the first
indicators of whether the center left is bouncing back or if
Berlusconi's center-right alliance will proceed from strength
to strength. PD contacts downplay the importance of these
elections as they brace for the potential of two defeats,
which would highlight the opposition's disorder, and further
minimize its influence. Two defeats would also mark another
missed opportunity for Veltroni to reinforce his faltering
position, but would not signal an imminent change of PD
leadership. End comment.
SPOGLI