BERLUSCONI'S ACCOMPLISHMENTS IN FIRST HUNDRED DAYS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ROME 001048 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/14/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL IT SUBJECT: BERLUSCONI'S ACCOMPLISHMENTS IN FIRST HUNDRED DAYS REF: A. ROME 840 ¶B. ROME 960 ROME 00001048 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: Ambassador Ronald P. Spogli for reasons 1.4 b and d SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Defying expectations, Silvio Berlusconi used his first hundred days back in government to deliver results on election promises, though long-term solutions are still needed. The trash problem in Campania is not yet permanently solved, but the streets are cleared and troops are keeping dumps and incinerators open. Public worries about street crime have been addressed by a sweeping new security law. A public finance law has reinvented the annual budget process, but Italy's faltering economy casts doubt on whether budget targets will be met. An immunity law freeing Berlusconi from legal jeopardy was nevertheless signed into law by the President and is likely not to be challenged in the constitutional court. Despite pre-election pledges of bipartisan cooperation, Berlusconi's government drafted and passed these laws mostly without consulting the center-left opposition, which has grown more fragmented and less effective. The Berlusconi government made a fast and concerted start, gaining the momentum it will need to advance an ambitious fall agenda. END SUMMARY PROGRESS ON CLEARING UP GARBAGE IN CAMPANIA -------------- ¶2. (U) The perennial problem of uncollected garbage in the Campania region reached crisis levels this winter, leading the European Commission to launch legal action against Italy. Berlusconi campaigned hard on this issue and promised a prompt clean-up. A decree law, approved by Parliament in June, made dumps and incinerators areas of "strategic national interest" eligible for military protection, and criminalized actions such as protests and road blockages which had impeded refuse collection and disposal. The streets of Naples are largely free of trash and troops have kept dumps open, though the long-term disposal problem still has to be resolved. SECURITY LAW RAISES CRITICISMS -------------- ¶3. (C) Also tied to election pledges, the public security package allows tough new penalties for illegal immigration, street crime, and organized crime (see Rome 960). The law is popular with the public but provoked harsh criticism from, among others, the Romanian government and Council of Europe. Probably to minimize further such problems, the government announced it would submit three decree laws on immigration to the European Commission for informal review before they are enacted. FINANCIAL MANEUVER LAW ROUNDS OUT THE SESSION -------------- - ¶4. (U) The last law passed before the August recess was the "financial maneuver." This decree law breaks with the usual time-consuming practice of hammering out the annual budget between September and December each year. It covers a three year period and sets out key parameters for Italy's public finances and economic policy. The spending targets were intended to help Italy meet its EU obligations under the Stability and Growth pact. To do this, spending cuts will affect almost every part of the state apparatus. The EU has already expressed skepticism about the ability of the GOI to actually meet the targets. ¶5. (U) When Parliament reconvenes, it will debate the Finance and Budget bills as mandated by law. But returning parliamentarians may be surprised that they will be fighting over a much more limited set of issues than had normally been covered in the traditional fall budget battles. Protests by opposition parties and trade unions can be expected, and some GOI Ministers will push hard for more money. IMMUNITY GRANTED TO TOP FOUR OFFICIALS -------------- ¶6. (U) The "Lodo Alfano" granted immunity from prosecution to Italy's top four officials: the President of the Republic, the Prime Minister, and the Presidents of the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies (See Rome 960). This law was passed in a record short time of 20 days. But in contrast to an earlier draft, suspended trials will restart when Berlusconi leaves office. The law also avoids the legal ambiguities that led a predecessor, the "Lodo Schifani," to be knocked down by the constitutional court in 2004. Berlusconi argues that by freezing these court cases, he can govern more effectively and make progress on the tough reforms that eluded previous governments, including his own. The question is whether ROME 00001048 002.2 OF 003 Berlusconi will instead use this hiatus to pass laws to protect his own interests, such as reviving proposed restrictions on the use of wiretaps in criminal investigations. UNANIMOUS VOTE ON LISBON TREATY -------------- ¶7. (U) While working on these various domestic laws, the government delivered a unanimous ratification of the Lisbon Treaty in both houses of Parliament. This vote illustrates the discipline within the government coalition, as the Northern League representatives previously called for a referendum to be held on the treaty. CONFIDENCE VOTES SIDESTEP OPPOSITION -------------- ¶8. (U) Six confidence votes were held during the summer session. Each time, they were used by the government to avoid lengthy debates on long lists of amendments submitted by parliamentarians. In effect, confidence votes allowed Berlusconi to sidestep any changes the opposition wanted to make to the bills. President Napolitano criticized the government for this in his end-of-session speech, promising to "readjust" as necessary the balance between the Parliament and the executive. ALITALIA PROBLEMS HAVE NOT GONE AWAY -------------- ¶9. (C) Berlusconi has yet to make good on an election pledge to assemble a business consortium to save Alitalia. Refusing the Air France offer may be one of the biggest missteps of this government, as any rescue plan will almost certainly levy a substantial cost on the government. In the meantime, Berlusconi converted a 300 million euro loan granted by the previous government into equity capital. The European Commission has reopened inquiries into the Italian government's aid to the struggling state-controlled airline. Berlusconi's interventionist and nationalistic approach to the Alitalia debacle has raised questions about his government's commitment to free-market, cross-border capitalism. JUDICIAL REFORM AND FISCAL FEDERALISM NEXT -------------- ¶10. (C) With the headline issues of trash, security and the budget addressed, Berlusconi has announced that his government will tackle judicial reform and fiscal federalism between now and the end of the year. It's widely agreed that Italy is in dire need of a more efficient, effective and expeditious judicial system. The government will likely propose splitting the functions of prosecutors and judges; at present both roles are fulfilled by the magistracy. Italian magistrates have broad autonomy in investigating and trying cases, and its governing body, the Superior Council of Magistrates, is highly politicized and mostly self-selected. ¶11. (C) No matter how great the need for judicial reform, the process will be affected by the more than fifteen-year-long battle between Berlusconi and the magistracy. The likely inability of the two sides to engage in open and productive debate could make it harder to develop a comprehensive plan that will be embraced by jurists. ¶12. (U) Fiscal federalism, or the continued decentralization of spending powers to the regions, could increase transparency and accountability in government services. Fiscal federalism is important for the stability of Berlusconi's coalition, as it one of the Northern League's top priorities. The idea also has cross-party support; Berlusconi's plan is based on a draft law written by the Prodi government. However, serious challenges lie ahead. Implementation of existing measures has been spotty. Poorer regions will resist the inevitable reduction of transfers. The corruption and administrative problems that marred the use of European Union structural funds in southern Italy suggest that citizens in different regions will receive a greatly varying quality and range of services in return for their taxes. And anti-corruption campaigners have warned us that when the GOI pushes government spending authority into small provincial cities, and further away from even the weak oversight that exists in Rome, opportunities for corruption will multiply. COMMENT -------------- ¶13. (C) During its first hundred days, the Berlusconi government accomplished some of its urgent legislative goals, despite a number of potential scandals and political obstacles (see Rome 840). With a strong parliamentary majority, the government sidestepped a weakened opposition ROME 00001048 003.4 OF 003 while maintaining cohesiveness within the coalition. The discipline within the government coalition and quick progress on issues that matter to the voting public contrast sharply with the performance of the previous Prodi government. Recent opinion polls indicate majority public support for Berlusconi and his policies, including from some who voted for the opposition Democratic Party. With this political capital, Berlusconi has the potential to push ahead aggressively on the difficult economic and administrative reforms Italy so urgently needs. We will see over the next months whether he and his government can and will seize the opportunity to do so, or if they will fall back into the bad habit of advancing their personal and party interests above all. END COMMENT SPOGLI