SAG UPBEAT ON ECONOMY, BUT SIGNS OF SLOWDOWN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RIYADH 001572

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EEB AND NEA/ARP

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/19/2018
TAGS: EFIN ECON EINV EPET SA
SUBJECT: SAG UPBEAT ON ECONOMY, BUT SIGNS OF SLOWDOWN
INCREASE

REF: A. RIYADH 1353

B. RIYADH 1507

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission David Rundell for reasons 1.4 (b
) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: While still generally upbeat when discussing
their economic prospects, Saudi businesses and government
agencies have begun to temper their statements with an
element of caution. Many embassy contacts have told us they
expect a slight economic downturn, but that its effects will
be minimal. The Saudi government (SAG) has already taken
steps to protect their financial sector and is fiscally
well-positioned should they need to do more. End summary.

Saudis Generally Still Upbeat on Economy
--------------


2. (SBU) Saudi businessmen and government officials continue
to voice optimistic assessments of the Kingdom's ability to
weather current global economic turmoil. Press headlines
from the past week include "Kingdom Seen on Top of Crisis;
Inflation to Ease," "Global Financial Crunch Will Pass Saudi
Arabia," "Financial Crisis Won't Affect Jobs," and
"World-wide Market Crisis Will Not Affect Development
Projects." An October 16 statement by the Supreme Economic
Council (SEC) stated that the local effect of the global
crisis will be "limited" and emphasized the "safety" of local
banks' financial position.

But Some Signs of Possible Downturn
--------------


3. (C) Nevertheless, both Embassy contacts and government
press releases have shown an increasing tendency to caveat
remarks regarding the economy with cautionary statements.
Jerry McCabe of Saudi Investment Bank told Econoff the
Kingdom's economic situation was getting worse, but that
effects of the global situation would be mild relative to
elsewhere. He also said the SAG had more than enough cash on
hand to address any problems in its financial sector and that
the most likely consequence of the crisis would be a delay in
the completion of some of the large infrastructure projects
currently underway. Such delays were also deemed likely by
the attendees of a recent dinner hosted by the DCM, including
former Ministry of Commerce official Fawaz al-Alamy and Exxon
Mobil Saudi Arabia CEO Desmond Carr.


4. (SBU) The most concrete private sector manifestation of
these concerns has been the postponement of numerous (some
sources have cited numbers as high as 80) initial public
offerings on the Saudi stock exchange. While this is
directly attributable to recent volatility and sharp declines
on the exchange, it also indicates a larger concern about the
availability of capital.

SAG Acting Quickly to Address Concerns
--------------


5. (C) In response to mounting signs of an economic slowdown,
the SAG has taken steps to shift its economic policy away
from fighting inflation and towards maintaining liquidity and
stability in the financial sector. The Saudi Arabian
Monetary Agency (SAMA) reduced its key lending rate by 50
basis points, cut its demand deposit reserve requirement from
13 percent to 10 percent, and, starting on October 20, began
directly injecting both U.S. dollars and Saudi riyals into
local banks through deposits. So far SAMA has injected the
equivalent of $8 billion and, according to Dr. John
Sfakianakis, chief economist for Saudi Arabia British Bank,
is likely to continue daily deposits of $4 billion for the
next two to three days. In addition, the SEC explicitly
guaranteed bank deposits, the first time they have taken such
a step, and adopted additional measures to reinforce
confidence in the overall soundness of the economy. With a
budget surplus in the neighborhood of $133 billion for 2008,
the SAG will have little difficulty meeting these
obligations.


6. (C) Comment: Although recent volatility on the Saudi
stock market (see ref B) and a global decline in oil prices
have adversely affected local confidence in the economy, a
significant economic downturn is unlikely. Oil prices have
already begun to stabilize in anticipation of an OPEC
production cut in the next week, and the SAG has enough cash
on hand to smooth over any short-term economic shocks for
some time to come. Furthermore, the current international

RIYADH 00001572 002 OF 002


price of oil has yet to approach the level which the SAG uses
when making its conservative budget estimates. A lack of
internationally available credit combined with a
already-tight local credit market (see ref A) will probably
slow completion of several large infrastructure projects, but
not by more than a year or two. End comment.
FRAKER