TOPICS FOR ABDULLAH/MUBARAK MEETING: EGYPTIAN DCM

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 RIYADH 001245 SIPDIS TRIPOLI PLEASE PASS TO NEA A/S CWELCH, DEPARTMENT FOR NEA/ARP, WHITE HOUSE FOR OVP E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/13/2018 TAGS: EG EU IR IS IZ MU PGOV PREL SA UNC UNGA SUBJECT: TOPICS FOR ABDULLAH/MUBARAK MEETING: EGYPTIAN DCM ON COUNTERING IRAN REF: RIYADH 1137 RIYADH 00001245 001.4 OF 003 Classified By: CHARGE' D'AFFAIRES MICHAEL GFOELLER FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) ¶1. (S) SUMMARY: On August 13, at Egyptian request, Pol Counselor met with Riyadh Egyptian DCM Hussam Essa. Essa expressed grave concerns over continued Iranian nuclear ambitions, noting that this topic would be an agenda item in the upcoming meeting between Saudi King Abdullah and President Mubarak, currently scheduled for August 15 in Cairo. Essa relayed the message that Egypt asks to have side discussions on Iran during the 6 2 1 meetings, as well being kept informed and consulted of any P5 1 discussions vis-a-vis Iran. Essa advised that a combination of strict economic sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and stability in Iraq would sufficiently force Iran to change its direction. He commented on the Israeli-Palestinian issue, noting that it is "no longer a conflict between Israelis and Palestinians, but between Palestinians and Palestinians." Essa also spoke to the economic fragility of the Palestinian Authority in relation to outstanding financial commitments from Arab and especially Gulf nations, and specifically how the Saudi Arabian Government (SAG) has inquired to the (Government of Egypt) GOE about the utility of their financing to the Palestinian Authority given the deteriorating situation. Lastly, Essa argued that the situation in Lebanon is no longer "Christian against Muslim, but Shia against Sunni," and made clear that Iranian and Syrian incursions into domestic Lebanese problems were playing factions against each other and hurting any long-term stability for Lebanon. END SUMMARY IRAN, IRAN, IRAN -------------- ¶2. (S) At the urgent request by the Egyptian Embassy in Riyadh, Pol Counselor met with Riyadh Egyptian DCM Hussam Essa on Aug. 13. During the 90 minute meeting, Essa went on at length, sometimes emotionally, about the threat of Iranian expansionism and its uranium enrichment program. He repeatedly requested that Iran become a main topic for the 6 2 1 discussions along with Iraq, and for Egypt to be kept informed of any P5 1 meetings. He touched on Lebanon, the Palestinian territories, Arab unity (or lack of),Iraq, ;Syria, and the need for regional Saudi leadership. He also raised the GOE's "grave concern" over reports that Oman had invited Iran to be an observer in Peninsula Shield, the joint military defense component of the Gulf Cooperation Council. Essa advised that these would form the agenda when Saudi King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, on his return from Morocco to the Kingdom, meets with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak on Aug. 15 in Cairo. Note: The press reports that Omani Sultan Qaboos would join the Abdullah-Mubarak meetings, but Essa never mentioned Qaboos's participation. Essa said this same demarche would be delivered to AmEmbassy Cairo by the GOE. HOW TO STOP IRAN: "SQUEEZE THE COMMON MAN" -------------- ¶3. (S) Essa recommended separate breakout sessions on Iran during 6 2 1 meetings. He also stated the GOE would like to be informed of any information arising from P5 1 meetings regarding Iran. Essa was extremely concerned about Iranian nuclear ambitions, and noted that escalation vis-a-vis Iran coincides with problems in Lebanon, Palestine, and Iraq. Essa's recommendation to thwart Iranian's nuclear ambitions are "strict economic sanctions, diplomatic RIYADH 00001245 002.4 OF 003 isolation, and stability in Iraq" while leaving Iran a "face-saving option" if it acquiesces. In doing so, Essa admitted recent success in Iraq, stating that "things are moving in a better way." He asserted forcefully that the best way to change Iranian behavior is to "squeeze the common man" through "severe sanctions," which would make it impossible for the Iranian government to continue "in the way they are," and hence cripple any popular support, or toleration, of Iranian expansionism and its nuclear ambitions. ¶3. (S) Essa remarked that "some Arab brothers are OK with playing proxy to Iran" as well, identifying Syria and segments of Lebanon. He argued that Iran is playing the "factional card" by using proxies to play one side against one other in a bid for power. Essa also shared the rumor that Iran was actually settling some of its citizens in Iraq in order to "influence future referendums." ¶4. (S) Essa conveyed that the Egyptian Embassy in Tehran had been contacted by an "Omani diplomat" there, who had relayed that Oman has invited Iran to have observer status in Peninsula Shield. Kassem argued that this was obviously "bad for Peninsula Shield," as the mission of this cooperative security arrangement is to oppose regional threats, like Iran. PALESTINIAN INCURSION INTO GAZA: COULD "HAPPEN AGAIN" -------------- -------------- ¶5. (S) Essa spoke of the deteriorating situation in Gaza, noting that the conflict no longer is between "Israelis and Palestinians, but between Palestinians and Palestinians," referring to the internal political and security struggle between Hamas and Fatah. He noted that the recent January 2008 flood of Palestinians from Gaza into Egypt as they breached the security wall north of Rafah was Hamas trying to "embarrass the Egyptian Government." Essa related that certain "intelligence reports" suggest the same situation could unfold again, and very soon. He shared the GOE is "looking at ways" to prevent the recurrence of another flood of Palestinians into Egyptian territory. ¶6. (S) Essa also noted that the Palestinian Authority is currently in a "grave financial situation." He stated that the GOE had sent a letter to the SAG to reconfirm its financial commitments to the Palestinians, to which the response was clear the SAG was actually giving over 100% of its obligations. Note: The SAG had separately confirmed to us their contributions (Reftel). Essa stated the SAG had complied with 100% of its pledges, the U.A.E. 90%, and Algeria 75%. He lamented other Arab nations, notably the other Gulf countries, are not living up to their commitments. Essa stated that the SAG has approached the GOE regarding Saudi funding of the Palestinian Authority, expressing concern over its true utility, as now "Muslims are fighting Muslims." Essa quipped Saudi Arabia is "the Arab leader we need." Throughout the discussion on the Palestinians, Essa never once blamed Israel nor made any negative comments concerning Israel or Israeli policy, but rather was extremely concerned that the internal Palestinian conflict over political and security control was raising questions amongst donors and Arab supporters. FACTIONS IN LEBANON: SIGN OF THINGS TO COME? -------------- ¶7. (S) Essa commented on Lebanon by opining that previously the conflicts involved "Christian against Muslim," but now they are "Shia against Sunni, or Muslim against Muslim." RIYADH 00001245 003.6 OF 003 Essa stated he hoped such a conflict would not spread to other parts of the Middle East, but warned if such factional conflicts within Islam were to continue, events similar to those that are transpiring in Lebanon may arise in other Islamically "mixed" nations, such as Bahrain, as well as Saudi Arabia. ¶8. (S) During the meeting, Essa noted some statistics on Egyptians population figures in Saudi Arabia as well as Hajj and Umrah numbers for Egyptian citizens. He stated there are over 2 million Egyptians in Saudi Arabia, noting that many of these are illegal overstayers from Hajj and Umrah. Essa estimated that approximately 75,000 Egyptians travel to Saudi Arabia for Hajj, and 800,000 for Umrah every year. ¶9. (S) Essa asked Pol Counselor for a readout on the July meeting between President Bush and Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal in Washington. He also asked about any upcoming high-level USG visits to Saudi Arabia, as well as the status of the several bilateral agreements that were signed by the USG and SAG during the May POTUS visit. Pol Counselor was noncommittal in response. ¶10. (S) COMMENT. Given the Egyptian DCM's urgency and emotion during this meeting, it appears Iran has crossed a red line with the GOE. The SAG has long been wary and to an extent, fearful, of Iran. It seems the Egyptians share these feelings. Essa's comment about Saudi Arabia being an "Arab leader" was noteworthy and may have meant to perhaps imply that Riyadh has eclipsed Cairo as the true leader of the Arab world. It also appears the SAG is disillusioned and developing donor fatigue with the Palestinians. The Abdullah-Murarak-Qaboos meeting in Cairo may yield new Arab initiatives to counter Iran. We will seek an immediate readout from the SAG once the King returns to the Kingdom. END COMMENT. GFOELLER