C-NE8-01188 - SAUDI GOVERNMENT'S ATTITUDE ON

S E C R E T RIYADH 001136 NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/22/2018 TAGS: IR IS LE MCAP MOPS PGOV PINR PREL PTER SA SUBJECT: C-NE8-01188 - SAUDI GOVERNMENT'S ATTITUDE ON LEBANON REF: SECSTATE 69176 ¶1. (S/NF) The following is post's response based on various discussions with our interlocutors in response to INR's inquiry regarding Saudi Arabian views on Lebanon (Reftel): ¶A. (S/NF) How do senior officials in Saudi Arabia see the political situation in Lebanon developing over the next year? There is a general negative Saudi view of the situation in Lebanon. While the Saudis are heartened by the formation of PM Siniora's government, they consider Hezbollah as the dominant, and destabilizing, force in Lebanon. The Saudis see Hezbollah as a proxy for aggressive Iranian expansionism. ¶B. (S/NF) How do Saudi officials believe their allies in Lebanon have been affected by the Doha agreement? The Saudi consensus is that the Doha Agreement was a Hezbollah victory. As such, they view it as a loss for their Lebanese allies. ¶C. (S/NF) Do Saudi officials foresee a continuing power struggle in Lebanon? Yes. The Saudis consider Hezbollah as continually getting stronger in all regards - militarily, politically and economically. The only effective counter they see to Hezbollah is the Lebanese Army, which they evaluate as currently weak and ill-equipped. ¶D. (S/NF) What are Saudi officials prepared to do to help their Lebanese allies? The Saudis will continue to support their Lebanese allies, both directly and through multilateral engagement, to garner regional support with Arab partners while also countering Syrian and Iranian intervention and influence. ¶E. (S/NF) What might the Saudis expect the USG to provide to their allies in Lebanon? The Saudis likewise look to the USG to follow suit in support of their Lebanese allies. The most practical, in Saudi opinion, is USG assistance to strengthen the Lebanese Army in order to directly counter Hezbollah. ¶F. (S/NF) What role do the Saudis see Iran and Syria playing with their allies in Lebanon and how do they intend to respond to each? The Saudis view both Syria and Iran as their adversaries in Lebanon, with Iran being the main threat and effectively pulling the strings on Syria and Hezbollah, while Syria is simply an Arab turncoat. Saudi Arabia's view is that only realistic way to counter Iran is through UN sanctions, and economic and diplomatic isolation. Regarding Syria, the SAG will continue to isolate Syria politically within the Arab community while seeking to have it rejoin the Arab consensus and distance itself from Iran. GFOELLER