NEW LATVIAN PARTIES STRUGGLING TO GAIN TRACTION

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 RIGA 000693 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV LG SUBJECT: NEW LATVIAN PARTIES STRUGGLING TO GAIN TRACTION ¶1. Summary: With public trust in established Latvian political parties hitting record lows, two new parties have emerged hoping to gain momentum in the June 2009 local and European elections before settling down in Saeima, Latvia's parliament, in the 2010 elections. Both Sabiedriba Citai Politikai (Society for a different politics, SCP) and Pilsoniska Savieniba (Civic Union, PS) came into being after splits within the existing parties and thus lack promising newcomers. Yet, both will try to overcome the public skepticism of politics and repeat the success of other Latvian parties formed shortly before elections and winning them. Their greatest challenges will be raising funds and convincing voters that they offer anything new. End summary. ¶2. The core of the economically center-left SCP is formed by former members of the ruling rightist People's Party (TP),most notably former minister of foreign affairs Artis Pabriks and minister of regional development Aigars Stokenbergs. The latter was expelled from TP for publicly criticizing the party in October 2007 and founded an NGO "Society for Political Change," which in 2008 was transformed into a political party. He was joined by Pabriks, who left TP after having expressed his frustration with the party's handling of attempts to dismiss the anti-corruption chief. The party has declared establishing a welfare state similar to those found in the Scandinavian countries its main aim and led the fight for a failed referendum in August to increase pensions. SCP counts approximately 450 registered members and was supported by 3.7% of voters in an October public opinion poll by SKDS. Pabriks and Stokenbergs are the only ones representing the party in Saeima and they cannot run for other office or their seats will return to TP. Both MP's, as well as party chair Gatis Kokins, have cited raising funds as the chief need of the party. ¶3. PS defines itself as a "party of patriots, rooted in the regions" and mainly comprises former members of the Fatherland & Freedom (TB/LNNK) and New Era (JL) parties. Party leaders Sandra Kalniete (previously JL) and Girts Valdis Kristovskis (previously TB/LNNK) have for years belonged to the Latvian political elite, serving as ministers of foreign affairs and defense respectively. PS, which was founded in April 2008, is considered an official faction in Saeima, consisting of six MP's. It is set to grow to seven as a TB/LNNK deputy, convicted of fraud and forced to resign from Saeima, will be replaced by a former TB/LNNK member who has since joined PS. According to the October SKDS poll, PS is supported by 1.8% of voters. Interestingly, the party's poll numbers dropped by about half when pollsters stooped referring to it as "Kalniete and Kristovskis' new party" and instead used its official name. It has around 400 registered members. ¶4. The first test for both parties will be municipal elections scheduled for June 2009. These elections will be the first in which parties will need to secure 5% of the vote in each district to win election to the local council. Despite low popularity ratings and the 5% threshold, officials in both parties are optimistic about their future prospects in conversations with us. SCP is even aiming for at least 20% of votes in the Riga city election (highly unlikely, in our view). Both parties are banking on the low popularity of current parties and lack of trust in the political system to propel them to victory. According to a Eurobarometer poll, Latvian trust in political parties is lower than in any other country of the European Union, with only 5% of the residents saying they trusted parties. According to polls, only Harmony Center, the Russian-dominated alliance of left wing parties, has an approval rating above the 10% mark. ¶5. In Latvia, newly-founded parties have a tradition of winning in every election since the restoration of independence (save 2006 when there were no new ethnic-Latvian parties). However, all of these parties succeeded by bringing in "fresh faces" not previously involved in politics and who enjoyed high personal popularity with the public. Although both parties have well known political names in them, neither possesses any notable fresh faces at this time. Both parties are hoping to recruit high-profile new members. SCP is known to be actively courting the former editor-in-chief of Diena newspaper, Sarmita Elerte, and PS has pursued some younger people best known from music or television. Rumors that former president Vike Freiberga would join SCP have so far been just rumors. ¶6. Comment: In the short run, the success of both parties will depend on their ability to dissociate themselves from the extremely unpopular governing coalition, in which both have roots, and to attract financing and new members. In this respect, problems could arise particularly for SCP as it faces the hard task of convincing the public its leaders have nothing to do with their former party, TP. Additionally, Latvia's tough economic climate makes raising the needed funds even more difficult. And too much success in fund raising would only arouse public suspicion that these parties offer nothing new. The first real test for both parties will be the municipal elections in June 2009, especially in Riga. A strong showing will make them viable forces for the 2010 Saeima elections. A weak one will almost certainly lead to their closure or merger with other parties. RIGA 00000693 002 OF 002 Larson