Latvia to hold two referenda in August

UNCLAS RIGA 000439 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV LG SUBJECT: Latvia to hold two referenda in August Ref: Riga 151 ¶1. Summary. Traditionally, the August vacation season has been down time in Latvian politics, but this year Latvians will be called on to mobilize twice for public referenda. On August 2, Latvian citizens will be asked to vote on constitutional amendments providing voters with the power to dismiss the Saeima (Parliament) through a national referendum. On August 23 they will vote on amendments setting the minimum pension at the official subsistence level. Opinion polls show strong support for both proposed amendments. However, it is very unlikely that the required minimum number of people will vote for either of the amendments to become law. ¶2. Both draft amendments were proposed by private groups and were supported by Latvian citizens in signature-gathering drives in numbers sufficient to place them on the Saeima agenda. The Saeima, however, voted against both proposed amendments. The ruling coalition stated that in general it agrees with the proposal that the Constitution should grant the people the right to initiate Saeima's dismissal, but objected to the wording of the proposed amendment, arguing that it was too vague. The main argument against the pensions amendment was that the proposal is nothing more than populism and that it would wreak havoc on the national budget. ¶3. According to Latvian law, after Saeima rejection of both proposed amendments, the Central Election Commission (CEC) set dates for holding referenda on the proposals. The CEC noted that it was legally impossible (because of restrictions on the time between review by the Saeima and the referendum date) to hold both votes on the same day, which according to advocates of the amendments would have increased the turnout and saved state money. It is estimated that each referendum will cost about 2.1 million lats ($4.7 million USD). ¶4. So far, neither advocates of the draft amendments (mostly the opposition parties) nor the ruling coalition have conducted any highly visible campaigns for or against the proposed amendments. The ruling coalition has taken its usual passive stance, limited to statements that referenda are a waste of money and that they will not participate in any of them. Meanwhile, almost all opposition political parties have voiced their support for the proposed amendments and plan to hold some kind of referendum promotion campaign. For instance, several opposition parties and well-known public figures established an NGO called "For the Rights of People!", to conduct awareness-raising activities to call people to vote for the proposed constitutional amendments. Contrary to the ruling coalition, Latvian President Zatlers has clearly voiced his view that the public and political parties should take active part in the referenda, though he has not revealed his stances on the issues discussed. ¶5. The required level of turnout for the referenda to be considered valid is very high. In both cases, participation in the vote must be half of voters who participated in the last Saeima elections. Additionally, the referendum on the constitutional amendment requires "yes" votes from half of all eligible voters (756,400). This number is over 3 times the number of people who participated in the signature drive for the amendment, and is not far from the total turnout in the last Saeima elections (908,979). ¶6. Comment. Considering the high requirement for the number of votes needed and the fact that August is the most popular month in Latvia for vacations, it is very unlikely that either of the referendums will draw the required number of votes to be considered valid and result in the adoption of the proposed amendments. Thus, the most significant result of the referenda will probably be the cost of running the voting. The proposed pension amendment could bolster political support in the next elections for those political groups who have aligned themselves with the pension changes. As for the constitutional amendments on the people's right to dismiss the Saeima, other legislative initiatives and proposals may follow. For instance, President Zatlers has voiced that he could also initiate constitutional amendments regarding Saeima dismissal procedures.