(S/NF) LATVIA/RUSSIA - INTEL ISSUES TO COMPLICATE

S E C R E T RIGA 000022 SIPDIS SIPDIS NOFORN E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/11/2035 TAGS: PINR PREL RS LG SUBJECT: (S/NF) LATVIA/RUSSIA - INTEL ISSUES TO COMPLICATE RELATIONS REF: TD-315/001443-08 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Stuart M. Seldowitz. Reason: 1.4 (b, c and d) ¶1. (S/NF) Summary: A Russian diplomat in Latvia, who is a declared SVR officer, will leave his post by the time his visa expires in June because his previous expulsion from France has him on a Schengen blacklist. The GOL has decided not to expel the individual because they do not have information on any inappropriate activity in Latvia. The GOL had downplayed the issue to avoid a fight with Moscow over what is really not a Latvian issue, although this may now change. This case is separate from the possible expulsion of another Russian embassy employee on whom the Latvians can prove involvement in espionage, which is now likely to go forward later in January. The sum total of these events could cause some difficulties in Latvian/Russian relations End summary. ¶2. (U) On December 30, a TV news show ran a story that the Latvian government was preparing to expel a first secretary of the Russian Embassy for intelligence activity. The MFA originally denied the story and then leaked that there was a Russian diplomat who had an issue because of Latvia's admission to the Schengen zone in December 2007. The individual in question, the press reported, was on a black list for activities in another Schengen country and therefore could not be issued a further Latvian visa. ¶3. (S/NF) Janis Kazocins, chief of the SAB (main intelligence agency) told post GRPO chief that the individual in question is Anatoly Kagolov, who is a declared SVR officer. Kagolov was declared PNG in France some years ago for espionage activity, but because he is declared in Riga, the Latvians did not see the need to expel him. MFA State Secretary Penke told Charge similar information, noting that Kagolov's current visa expires in June and that the GOL has told the Russian Embassy that he will have to depart by that date and that his current visa does not allow him to travel outside of Latvia. The Russians were not happy about this outcome but accepted it. ¶4. (S/NF) GRPO sources confirm that Kagolov is not the same individual that the SAB is recommending be expelled for espionage activities (ref). In a January 11 update to GRPO chief, GOL officials said that they have now obtained permission to expel the second individual and expected to do that by the end of the month. ¶5. (S/NF) Comment: All in all, the Latvians have probably handled the Kagolov case well, although there has been some press criticism for being "too soft." They have a commitment to their Schengen partners but they also need to maintain their relations with Moscow. Agreeing to let him stay in Latvia but not extend his visa seems a decent compromise. On the other hand, proceeding with the expulsion of the second individual will create tensions with Moscow, which will likely retaliate. The government was nervous about making an expulsion one of its first acts since it will have a chilling effect on relations with Russia, which had been on the upswing, but the evidence against him was apparently so compelling that PM Godmanis decided to proceed. It is likely that the invitation for President Zatlers to visit Moscow will be a casualty of this decision, but it should be a move that will have strong support among the ethnic Latvian population of the country. SELDOWITZ